Welcome to The Common Good Weekly News Brief

The most important news each week in the US and around the world.

Week of September 2 - september 8, 2023

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS

• Trump Is top choice for nearly 60% of GOP voters, WSJ poll shows: Support for DeSantis collapses in postdebate survey. The new survey finds that what was once a two-man race for the nomination has collapsed into a lopsided contest in which Trump, for now, has no formidable challenger. The former president is the top choice of 59% of GOP primary voters, up 11 percentage points since April. (Aaron Zitner & John McCormick, Wall Street Journal)

• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) (Past TCG Speaker) told Republicans behind closed doors today that he has no cognitive issues and plans to serve out the rest of his term as leader and senator.The brief remarks about his recent health scares seemed to satisfy his colleagues — none followed up with questions. McConnell then revealed that his allied outside groups had raised $50 million in August alone — a clever way of reminding the GOP conference why he has maintained his grip on leadership for so long. (CNN)

• Florida Congressional map illegally hurt Black voters, Judge rules. Just before last year’s midterm elections Ron Desantis signed off on a new congressional map proposed by the Florida legislature. The new map allowed for House district 5 to be split into four new and separate districts, all with white majorities. As a result, for the first time since 1990 there was not a single Black member elected to Congress in North Florida. Now a Florida judge has officially ruled the map unconstitutional. (Maggie Astor, The NY Times)

• Watchdog group seeks to block Trump from Colorado 2024 ballot in new lawsuit. The organization CREW is using the 14th amendment as grounds to have Trump blocked from Colorado's 2024 ballot as the amendment cites certain but vague stipulations about engaging in an insurrection. There is speculation attempts to disqualify him from the ballot may only help garner further support from his base. (April Rubin, Axios)

• Senate returns and faces deadline to avoid shutdown. Lawmakers have a narrow window to approve a stopgap funding measure and avoid a possible government shutdown beginning in October. Leaders of the House and Senate say a temporary spending bill is needed to work on yearlong bills. (NPR)

• SBA program upended in wake of Supreme Court affirmative action ruling. An essential provision of the SBA’s Business Development program which helps provide billions in government contracting dollars to “historically disadvantaged groups'' has been ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge. This ruling signals what could be the first of many for programs alike in the private sector. (Julian Mark, The Washington Post)

• Alabama exposes a new constitutional landmine on abortion. A court hearing in Alabama poses concern after they raised question about the constitutional right to punish residents who seek abortion care out of state. The unclear legal precedents underlying the case may result in it making its way up to the U.S. Supreme Court. (Mary Zeigler, MSNBC)

• Prosecutors plan to seek Hunter Biden indictment this month. David Weiss, the newly appointed special counsel tapped to prosecute President Biden’s son Hunter after a failed plea agreement, filed court papers Wednesday saying he intends to seek an indictment in the case before the end of the month — even as Biden’s lawyers continue to insist prosecutors cannot file such charges. (Devlin Barrett, The Washington Post)

• Why So Many Americans Are So Down on Biden. Unemployment is near historic lows, and inflation has come way down. We are inflicting a strategic humiliation on Russia by arming Ukraine without putting American forces at risk. The homicide rate fell by about 10 percent across 30 cities compared with last year. Democrats defied electoral trends by holding the Senate, scoring major legislative victories and easily confirming a Supreme Court nominee. (Bret Stephens, New York Times)

• Donald Trump may seek to move Georgia election case to federal court: Former President Trump has sought to move his trial from state to federal court. Federal court, due to its more politically diverse jury pool, has the potential to be more favorable to Trump. (Jack Queen, Reuters)

• Judge denies Mark Meadows’ request to move his Georgia election subversion case to federal court: A judge denied that Trump’s White House chief of staff must fight his charges in Goergia state court. This refusal could signal that Trump and other defendants could struggle to meet the requirements necessary to move the trial to federal court. (Kate Brumback, AP)

• Georgia grand jury recommended charging Lindsey Graham, other Trump allies: A Georgia grand jury recommended criminal charges against Trump allies as part of the criminal investigation into overturning Trump’s loss in 2020. None of of these allies were ultimately charged, leaving questions as to why Fani Willis, Fulton County’s District Attorney, decided not to indict them. (Luc Cohen and Jack Queen,Reuters)

DOMESTIC

• 4 Astronauts Return to Earth in Space X Capsule to Wrap up a six station mission: After their six month stay at the International Space Station, four astronauts returned to Earth in SpaceX into the Atlantic off the Florida Coast (Politico)

• Jill Biden tests positive for Covid-19 and is currently staying at her home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. The president was tested negative and took a solo back to D.C. (Katherine Long, Politico)

• Biden Administration expected to cancel drilling leases in Alaskan Wildlife Refuge: The Biden administration is expected to cancel oil and gas leases in Alaska’s coastal plain, which were awarded under former President Trump to Alaska’s Industrial Development and Export Authority. The Biden administration did this to protect the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Such a cancellation of leases is likely to bring forth a legal battle over the fate of the land. (Lisa Friedman, The New York Times)

• Trump suffers big loss: A federal judge ruled that former President Donald Trump is civilly liable for defamatory statements he made about E. Jean Carroll, who in 2019 made claims that Trump had raped her decades prior. Judge Lewis Kaplan stated that the upcoming trial for Carroll's civil lawsuit against the former president would only deal with how much Trump should pay in monetary damages. (Dan Mangan, CNBC)

• The Pentagon is stepping up its efforts to pressure Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) to finally release his nine-month hold on more than 300 military promotions. The Defense Department dispatched the civilian leaders of three branches of the U.S. military to slam the senator for the blockade, first in a Washington Post op-ed Monday and then during a CNN interview Tuesday. Earlier today, DOD took the rare step of putting out a news story highlighting the hold’s impact on its official media webpage. Also this week, the Pentagon released a slate of new senior nominations, including for the Air Force vice chief of staff. (Lara Seligman, Paul McLeary, and Connor O’Brien, Politico) 

• Adams: Cost of migrants ‘will destroy New York City-’ Mayor of New York City, Eric Adams stated that the immigration crisis happening in New York City is an ordeal he does not see an end to. He states, “ never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to, I don’t see an ending to this.” There are currently over 110.000 migrants living in New York City and is causing a financial burden to the city which leads to cuts in budgets. According to Eric Adams, he states that asylum-seeking migrants coming to the city should not just be New York’s problem and recently called out to President Biden which led to tension between the two. ( Jeff Coltin, Politico)

• Danelo Cavalcante: Convicted murderer who escaped a Pennsylvania prison was spotted in a creek bed and fled into the woods.Cavalcante (34), who is serving time for brutally stabbing his girlfriend (33) in front of her children and also wanted for homicide in Brazil escaped from an eastern PA prison on August 31st. Cavalante is still on loose despite extensive efforts by state and federal law enforcement to find him. (Elamroussi & Todd, CNN)

• Elon Musk’s troubling defamation threat agaisnt the ADL, explained. Musk, CEO of X has filed a defamation suit against the anti-defamation league claiming their antisemitism watchdogs have caused him to lose and have difficulty retaining advertisers on his platform. (Zeeshan Aleem, MSNBC)

• Peter Navarro Convicted of Contempt of Congress Over Jan. 6 Subpoena: Peter Navarro was convicted on Thursday of two counts of criminal contempt of Congress, making Navarro the second top adviser to former President Trump to be found guilty, the other being Stephen K. Bannon; both were found in contempt for defying the January 6 committee‘s investigation. Each count carries a maximum of one year in prison and a fine of up to $100,000; the sentencing hearing is scheduled for January ( Zach Montague, The New York Times)

• New Jersey failed veterans in state-run homes hit by dozens of COVID-19 deaths, federal report says: Poor communication, staff incompetency, and other issues caused COVID-19 to rampage unchecked throughout two of New Jersey’s state-run veterans homes. Findings included failure to separate charges according to exposure to COVID, failure to use protective gear, and failed to maintain improvements implemented after government aid. (Mike Catalini, AP)

• Body cam shows prolific federal drug prosecutor offering cops business card in DUI crash arrest: Joseph Ruddy, one of the country’s narcotics prosecutors, was seen via body cam footage attempting to use his position to lessen the fallout of a Fourth of July hit-and run that Ruddy caused. (Joshua Goodman and Jim Mustian, AP)

• Kaiser to pay $49 million to California for illegally dumping private medical records, medical waste: Kaiser Permanente will pay $49 million for illegally disposing of private medical records, hazardous materials and medical waste into dumpsters designated for local landfills. These mistakes pose a serious risk to sanitation workers, custodians,healthcare providers, and patients.(Olga R. Rodriguez, AP)

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE 

• We’re Gambling With the Only Good Oceans in the Universe: The ocean off the coast of southern Florida had had surface temperatures hover around 90 degrees Fahrenheit, before dropping to the 80s last week. The world’s third-largest barrier reef is dying, and scientists are fishing out coral samples and bringing them to the cool safety of laboratory tanks. We have not observed anything like it [Earth] yet in the universe, not even with our best telescopes, and so we cannot know exactly how rare—and thus, how difficult—it may be for the forces of cosmic nature to produce such a thing. And yet, here we are, simmering its oceans at our peril and changing the fundamental makeup of the ecosystem that defines Earth. Humans may be sweltering on land this summer, but our planet’s future—and therefore ours—is intimately tied with the sea. (Marina Koren, The Atlantic)

• Scientists warn invasive pests are taking a staggering toll on society.  The authors of a major new U.N.-backed report say invasive species are costing the world more than $423 billion a year. The landmark assessment found more than 3,500 harmful invasive species cost society more than $423 billion a year, a tally only expected to grow as the modern age of global trade and travel continues to supercharge the spread of plants and animals across continents like never before. WP

• Disastrous flooding in Greece amid extreme weather pattern in Europe. The persistent and extreme flooding occurring in Greece, Spain, Turkey, and Bulgaria may be unraveling to become one of Europe's most prolific flooding diasters yet. (Dan Stillman, The Washington Post)

• States without cooling aid for the poor as heat gets deadlier. More than 30 million people from low-income households are eligible for federal assistance to help with cooling and air expenses amidst historic heat waves. However, majority of families eligible for this assistance have not received any money and are left bearing the extreme temperatures. (Thomas Frank, Politico)

• Tropical Storm Lee nears hurricane strength, expected to be "extremely dangerous" hurricane by weekend: Tropical Storm Lee is continuing to gain strength and is expected to intensify into an extremely dangerous hurricane by the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters believe this is too soon to project where Lee will hit the U.S.; however, those within the Leeward Islands should stay alert. ( Brian Dakss, Emily Mae Czachor, Gina Martinez, CBS News)

• Climate protest interrupts US Open semifinal between Coco Guaff and Karolina Muchova. Protestors wearing “End Fossil Fuels” shirts interrupt US Open semifinal, suspending play for a near 40 minutes. One protestor reportedly glued his shoes to the floor making it harder for officials to remove him. (Mahoney & Fendrich, The Washington Post)

• Texas heat brings the state’s power grid closest it has been to outages since 2021 winter storm: Texas’ power grid struggles to maintain output as electricity usage rises amid another stretch of summer heat. These concerns are compounded by the lack of connectivity to the rest of the US, which restricts power from elsewhere. (Juan A. Lozano, AP)

• Hong Kong's heaviest rain in at least 140 years floods city streets, metro: Hong Kong was flooded as the heaviest rainfall in the past 140 years fell on the city, with over 6.2 inches of rain recorded. Streets, shopping malls, and metros were submerged underneath the rainfall, and schools were suspended. (Reuters)

• UN report says the world is way off track to curb global warming, but offers ways to fix that: A UN report has highlighted that the world is a long way off from its 2015 pledge to curb global warming, showing the dire need for changes in all financial institutions. In order to meet current pledges, unabated fossil fuels must be phased out, money for coal, oil, and natural gas must end, and other drastic measures must be taken. (Seth Borenstein, AP)

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• "We're facing an increasingly worrying triple whammy," said Jason Furman, a Harvard University economist and former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. "Starting from a high debt level, adding to it every year with non-interest spending in excess of tax receipts, and now we can no longer count on the cushion of growth rates well above interest rates."  If the recent surge in rates turns out to be temporary or caused by rising productivity growth, then it wouldn't damage long-term fiscal math, Brookings Institution economist Louise Sheiner said. Scheiner said that if the higher real interest rate persists, "and if it isn't offset by higher productivity growth, it means we have to do somewhat more to cut the deficit, but not really much more than was already baked into CBO projections." (Axios)

• Soaring rates complicate America’s deficit arithmetic. The U.S government’s real interest rate on inflation-protected bonds has risen steeply since July and are now higher than expected GDP growth. There is worry over how the U.S. will be able to manage its high debt levels. However, economists also note that this may not impact long term fiscal math in the case productivity growth increases more than projected. Only 18 months ago, it was the reverse - growth was higher than real yields, which would have allowed for managing the high debt level. (Neil Irwin, Axios)

• Fed Governor Waller agrees the central bank can ‘proceed carefully’ on interest rates. In light of the new strong economic data reports just released, governor Christaphor Waller says he does not believe imminent action is necessary to address inflation and we can continue to wait on more incoming data to see how and if low inflation trends continue along this trajectory. Additionally, the nonfarm payrolls report suggests that employment was higher than the projected forecast for August; however, wages were lower than the projected forecast rising only 0.2 percent. Overall, it seems that there will be more insight in the coming months on whether steps be taken to address inflation or if the low inflation rates we are seeing turn out to be an outlier. (Jeff Cox, CNBC)

• Last week's barrage of inflation, spending and employment data supported the idea that the economy is going through a relatively painless slowdown that could reduce inflation without further interest rate hikes. A Fed governor this morning confirmed that view is held among the central bank's leadership. In an appearance on CNBC, governor Christopher Waller said "that was a hell of a good week of data we got last week," which should allow the central bank "to proceed carefully" with its next moves. That's essentially confirmation of what Fed watchers had already come to believe — that there will be no hike at the policy meeting concluding Sept. 20. (CNBC, Axios)

• Medical services could prove an unpleasant source of higher inflation in the near future. Quirks in how health insurance prices are measured, and how medical providers set prices, have meant the sector has pulled inflation down in recent months. The methodology used to calculate healthcare only accounts for the cost insurers spend on costumer care subtracted from what they charge in premiums. In October however, the BLS will updating their methodology which Goldman Sachs economists predict will result in health care costs increasing monthly by 1% as opposed to falling by 4% monthly as we are experiencing now. (Rakshit, Wagner, Hughes-Cromwick, Cox, & Amin, Health System Tracker)

• Help Wanted: Women to Fix America’s Infrastructure Bipartisan law adds millions of jobs at a time of worker shortages. Thus far the U.S. infrastructure law has funded 37,000 infrastructure projects. Additionally the federal government is using this as a chance to increase female representation in the industry through plans to provide child care services, install lactation pods at work sites, and address gender violence in the workplace, and more. (Cambon & Siddiqui, The Wall Street Journal)

• Auto workers reject Detroit Three contract offers, ready to strike: The United Auto Workers has rejected contract offers by General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler and have begun to prepare to strike next week if better contracts were not offered. (David Shepardson, Reuters)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• Biden, Modi look to continue tightening US-India relations amid shared concerns about China: Biden arrives a day early to a G20 summit to further bolster relations with India. Biden and Modi aim to bolster the relationship between the US and India in light of Chinese maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific. Their friendliness have been criticized by activists who are concerned about India’s own human rights record, (Aamer Modhani and Josh Boaki, AP)

• China's draft law against harming 'national spirit' triggers concern: China aims to change its security laws to criminalize comments, clothing or symbols that “undermine the spirit” or harm the feelings” of the country. The proposed changes have led to widespread criticism as scholars and commentators fear that the changes could allow arbitrary jailing.. (Martin Quin Pollard, Reuters)

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

• Kim Jong Un may meet with Putin in Russia this month: The United States expects that Kim Jong Un may travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin to acquire military equipment for its war with Ukraine. (Politico)

• Ukraine live briefing: Strike in Ukraine’s east leaves at least 16 dead as Blinken visits Kyiv A Russian strike on a market in Kostyantynivka, in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, left at least 16 people dead and at least 20 injured, Ukrainian officials said Wednesday. (Bryan Pietsch, Ellen Francis, Loveday Morris and Miriam Berger, Washington Post)

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (Past TCG Speaker) visits Kyiv at key moment for war, and is expected to announce more than $1 billion in new aid. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signaled long-term support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion during a visit here Wednesday, amid a slow-going counteroffensive and disquiet among some Republicans.. (William Maudlin and James Marson, Wall Street Journal)

• Slovakia election could halt support from a fierce Ukraine ally. Frontrunner in Slovakia election Robert Fico plans to halt arms shipments to Ukraine, has denounced sanctions against Russia, and support for NATO. In an interview Fico explained this approach was one that was in the best self interest of his country and insinuated other leaders would likely follow the same lead, such as Trump if he were to win the upcoming election. (Andrew Higgens, The New York Times)

• US showdown over Ukraine aid looms as counteroffensive grinds on: Further aid for Ukraine could be stymied as far-right Republicans call for an end to Ukrainian aid. The threat to this aid is dire considering the potential for a government shutdown if the short term spending bill the aid is tied to fails to pass. (Patricia Zengerle, Reuters)

• Proximity of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Danube ports stirs fear in NATO member Romania: Drone debris found in Romanian territory have increased fears of the Ukrainian-Russian War spreading to Ukraine’s neighbors. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has stated that an ”inadmissible” violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Romania if the debris is Russian, (Stephan McGrath and Vadim Ghirda, AP)

• Musk says he refused Kyiv request for Starlink use in attack on Russia: Elon Musk refused Starlink use for an attack against Russia’s fleet, foiling a Ukrainian attempt to damage the Russian war effort. Musk claims that he did so to avoid nuclear escalation and complicity in a “major” act of war. (Reuters)

MIDDLE EAST

• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) (Past TCG Speaker) has urged Trump to support the mega-deal President Biden is negotiating with Saudi Arabia, which could pave the way for a historic peace agreement between the kingdom and Israel, The comprehensive deal could include a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty that would require support from two-thirds of the Senate, where many Democrats hold critical views of both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. That could force Biden to rely significantly on Republicans, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, the chief architect of the Abraham Accords, also urged the former president to support Biden's potential deal with Saudi Arabia. But several outstanding issues remain, including the potential U.S.-Saudi defense treaty, support for a civilian nuclear program that would include uranium enrichment on Saudi soil and Israeli concessions to the Palestinians. U.S. officials notably avoided criticizing the Saudi government yesterday over its extension of oil production cuts, which could drive up gas prices and damage Biden ahead of the election. (Barak Ravid, Axios)

• Netanyahu Is Unilaterally Changing the U.S. Israel Relationship. A possible agreement between Saudi and the U.S., would involve a defense treaty allowing Saudi to develop civilian nuclear weapons and grant them access to America’s most developed weapons. Another part of the deal however, involves normalizing relations between Saudi and Isreal with the exigency Isreal cooperates in finding a two state solution with the Palestinians. Opinion columnist for the NY Times, Friedman, suggests that the only agreement made by the United States should be one that ensures a two state solution in the West Bank and deters the far right coalition taking over Isreals government. Furthermore, Friedman contests that it’s pertinent the U.S. gets Saudi to commit to the same precedent otherwise there is a risk Isreal may try to come to a peace agreement with Saudi independently. (Thomas Friedman, The New York Times)

• U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned China in interviews that the patience of U.S. business was "wearing thin,"saying American companies deserved a "predictable environment and a level playing field." The two biggest economies in the world used to be each other's largest trade partners, but Washington now trades more with neighboring Canada and Mexico, while Beijing trades more with Southeast Asia.(Reuters)

• Pentagon plans a vast AI fleet to counter China threat. Defense Department seeks an array of air-, land- and sea-based autonomous systems to keep pace with adversaries. The Pentagon is considering the development of a vast network of AI-powered technology, drones and autonomous systems within the next two years to counter threats from China and other adversaries. (Nancy A. Youssef and Michael R. Gordon, Wall Street Journal)

• China moves to widen state employee iPhone Curbs: As tensions between Beijing and Washington increase, China has widened existing curbs on the use of iPhones by state employees. Such a move causes Apples shares to slip on Wednesday and Thursday amid fears of tit-for-tat action as Sino-U.S. tension rise (Julie Zhu and Kevin Yao, Reuters)

THE REST

• The ambassadors of Russia, Belarus and Iran won’t be invited to this year’s Nobel Prize award ceremony in Stockholm “We recognize the strong reactions in Sweden,” the organization based in the Swedish capital said in a statement on Saturday. “The board of the Nobel Foundation, therefore, chose to repeat last year’s exception to regular practice — that is, to not invite the ambassadors of Russia, Belarus and Iran.” (Kati Pohjanpalo, Bloomberg)

• South Africa’s contract with J&J and Pfizer reveals they charged South Africa 15-33 percent more than ‘Western nations’ for covid vaccines during the height of the pandemic. South Africa is urging other countries to make their contracts with Big Pharma transparent to see “how they really operate” in the face of a global health crisis. (Sumayya Ismail, Aljazeera)

• Armenia stated the nation will host a joint military exercise with the U.S. next week as tension with Azerbaijan rises and amid frustration with Russia: (Mark Trevelyan, Reuters).

• A Nigerian appeals court rejected two out of the three petitions challenging the legitimacy of President Bola Tinubu’s victory in the February election. Those challenging Tinubus's presidency say that he is not qualified because he was a citizen of Guinea nor had the required academic credentials (Chinedu Asadu, AP News).

• Mexico ends its federal ban on abortion, but a patchwork of state restrictions remains: The Mexico Supreme Court decided to invalidate all federal criminal penalties for abortion, opening access for millions of people. This ruling did not invalidate all criminal penalties for abortion, which remain on the books in 20 of Mexico's 30 states. (Fabiola Sanchez and Megan Janetsky, AP News).

• Japan Launches ‘moon sniper’ lunar lander SLIM into space: On Thursday Japan launched a lunar exploration spacecraft, in hopes of becoming the 5th country to land on the moon early next year. The objective of SLIM, which is expected to start landing by February, is to achieve high-accuracy landing ( Kantaro Komiya, Reuters)

• Russia summons Armenia’s ambassador as ties fray and exercises with US troops approach: In a rare sign of tensions, Russia has summoned Armenia’s ambassador to protest joint military exercises with the US. These tensions were raised by Armenia’s moves to aid Ukraine and to ratify the Rome Statute, which created the International Criminal Court that indicted Putin this year. (AP)

• A national program in Niger encouraged jihadis to defect. The coup put its future in jeopardy: The military coup in Niger threatens the viability of a program to encourage defection from jihadist terrorist organizations. The new military regime has not indicated plans to continue the program, which gave a monthly stipend, housing, and the ability to learn a trade to rehabilitate them back to society. If the junta repeals even parts of the program, the resulting loss of trust could cause a resurgence of violence. (Sam Mednick, AP)

• Philippines condemns Chinese harassment of supply boats to disputed atoll: The Philippines condemned Chinese harassment of a routine rotation and resupply mission. This incident is one of many that the Chinese coast guard has instigated as China has attempted to enforce its claims in the South China Sea. (Reuters)

IMMIGRATION

• Texas must move floating border barriers in Rio Grande, U.S. Judge says. On Wednesday a federal judge sided in favor of The U.S. Justice Department in their suit against Texas for installing 1,000 foot spiked barriers in the river to deter migrants. The suit argued that because the river is an international waterway it falls under federal jurisdiction. (Nick Miroff, The Washington Post)

• In Escalation, Adams Says Migrant Crisis ‘Will Destroy New York City’: The mayor of New York City, Eric Adams, believes that the City was being destroyed by an influx of immigrants from the southern border and did not see a way to resolve the issue. Stating, “Let me tell you something New Yorkers, never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to — I don’t see an ending to this. This issue will destroy New York City”. Adams has criticized the Biden ministration and Gov. Kathy Hochul for failing to provide adequate help to New York City during this time (Emma G. Fitzsimmons, The New York Times).

Week of August 21 - August 25, 2023

POLITICS/ELECTION

• Trump Surrenders at Atlanta Jail in Georgia Election Interference Case: Mr. Trump spent about 20 minutes at the jail, getting fingerprinted and having his mug shot taken for the first time in the four criminal cases he has faced this year. (Richard Fausset et al., The New York Times)

• THE ATLANTIC: The Mug Shot Is a Warning: Donald Trump’s booking photo was supposed to be an exercise in humility. He turned it into a threat. (Megan Garber, The Atlantic)

• THE NEW YORKER: A Chaotic Display of Conservatism at the First Republican Debate. (Benjamin Wallace Wells, The New Yorker)

• Who Won The First Republican Debate? FiveThirtyEight partnered with Ipsos and The Washington Post to poll voters before and after the candidates took the stage. (Molly Fuong et al., FiveThirtyEight)

• House Republicans open probe into Fani Willis ahead of Trump surrender: The Republican-led House Judiciary Committee opened an investigation into Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis Thursday over whether her prosecution of former President Trump is "politically motivated." (Ivana Saric, Axios)

• Rudy Giuliani And Sidney Powell Booked In Fulton County Jail—Here’s Who Else Has Surrendered In Trump Election Interference Case: Former President Donald Trump’s ex-lawyers Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell surrendered Wednesday to Fulton County authorities, after they were charged in a massive Georgia election interference case—bringing the total number of defendants to turn themselves in before Friday’s deadline to eight, with Trump expected to surrender on Thursday. (Sara Dorn, Forbes)

• The Constitution Prohibits Trump From Ever Being President Again: “As students of the United States Constitution for many decades—one of us as a U.S. Court of Appeals judge, the other as a professor of constitutional law, and both as constitutional advocates, scholars, and practitioners—we long ago came to the conclusion that the Fourteenth Amendment, the amendment ratified in 1868 that represents our nation’s second founding and a new birth of freedom, contains within it a protection against the dissolution of the republic by a treasonous president. (Past TCG Speaker Laurence H. Tribe and Judge J. Michael Luttig, The Atlantic)

• Rudy Giuliani surrenders in Fulton County: On Wednesday, Rudy Giuliani turned himself in at the Fulton County Jail; he is one of nineteen charged with attempting to thwart the 2020 election results in Georgia. He has stated he will plead not guilty and denies any wrongdoing. (Graham Kates, CBS News)

• Trump replaces top Georgia lawyer ahead of surrender: Ahead of Donald Trump’s surrender on Thursday evening, he replaced his top Georgia lawyer, Drew Findling, with Steven Sadow. Trump is being booked on more than a dozen charges due to his alleged efforts to reverse Georgia's 2020 election results. (Kristen Holmes & Sara Murray, CNN)  

• Attorney Jenna Ellis' bail set at $100K in Georgia election case after Trump's bond set at $200K: Judge Scott McAfee of Fulton County Superior Court has set President Donald J. Trump's former attorney Jenna Ellis' bail at $100,000 in the election interference case after previously setting former President Trump's bond at $200,000. Ellis is facing two counts, one count of solicitation of violation of oath by public officers. (Charalambous, Rubin, and Steakin, ABC News)

• Tennessee lawmakers open special session in wake of school shooting: Tennessee legislators began a special session on public safety in the aftermath of a school shooting earlier this year. Despite pressure from both the Republican governor and protestors, Tennessee’s legislature, which is controlled by a Republican supermajority, has been adamant in its refusal to pass new gun laws. (Brad Brooks, Reuters)

• The first Republican debate's biggest highlights. Revisit 7 key moments: Wednesday night's debate in Milwaukee featured eight Republican presidential candidates, focusing on topics such as abortion, the economy, and the war in Ukraine, issues for which most of the candidates had vastly different solutions. One nominee noticeably missing was former President Donald J. Trump, who instead released an interview with Tucker Carlson that coincided with the debate. (Melissa Quinn et al., CBS News)

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE 

• One Man's Quest to Heal the Oceans—And Maybe Save the World. (Aryn Baker, TIME)

• Simultaneous record heat hits multiple continents: Extreme heat events are the clearest manifestation of climate change in weather that people and the ecosystem experience on a daily basis. Prolonged heat events with sweltering days and little to no relief at night can be particularly hazardous. The records from the past week are particularly unusual considering these events are occurring in late August, which is past the typically hottest time of year. (Andrew Freedman, Axios)

• The massive central U.S. heat wave is expanding and could set hundreds of records: Heat indexes continue to approach 130 in spots as 100-degree temperatures cover much of the Midwest, Plains and South. (Ian Livingston, The Washington Post)

• Late-Summer Heat Wave Bakes Southern Europe: In France, Spain and Italy, residents and tourists did their best to avoid scorching temperatures — again. (Rachel Chaundler and Aurelien Breeden, The New York Times)

• Hawaii Officials Release List of 388 People Missing From Maui Fires: Authorities in Hawaii released a list late on Thursday naming 388 people who are still unaccounted for in the aftermath of the deadliest wildfires in America in more than a century, which killed at least 115 people. (Tim Arango and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, The New York Times)

• Emperor Penguins Could Go Extinct By 2100 Due To Climate Change, Study Says: If global temperatures continue to rise, over 90% of emperor penguin colonies are estimated to become nearly extinct by the end of this century, according to a study published Thursday in Communications Earth & Environment. Analyzing satellite images of five emperor penguin colonies, researchers from the British Antarctic Survey indicated the colonies experienced “unprecedented” breeding failure because of total sea ice loss. (Ty Roush, Forbes)

• Fukushima wastewater released into the ocean, China bans all Japanese seafood: Japan started releasing treated radioactive water from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean on Thursday, a polarising move that prompted China to announce an immediate blanket ban on all aquatic products from Japan. China is "highly concerned about the risk of radioactive contamination brought by... Japan's food and agricultural products," the customs bureau said in a statement. The Japanese government signed off on the plan two years ago and it was given a green light by the U.N. nuclear watchdog last month. The discharge is a key step in decommissioning the Fukushima Daiichi plant after it was destroyed by a tsunami in 2011. (Sakura Murakami, Reuters)

• Greece Battles Its Most Widespread Wildfires on Record: Wildfires ravaged northern Greece for a fifth consecutive day on Wednesday and forced the evacuation of settlements on the outskirts of the capital, Athens. The authorities said they were battling scores of blazes around the country after weeks of searing heat turned many areas into tinderboxes. “It is the worst summer for fires since records began,” said Vassilis Kikilias, the civil protection minister. (Matina Stevis-Gridneff & Niki Kitsantonis New York Times)

• Canadian Wildfire Smoke Led to Spike in Asthma ER Visits, Especially in New York: The smoke from Canadian wildfires that drifted into the U.S. led to a spike in people with asthma visiting emergency rooms—particularly in the New York area. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published two studies Thursday about the health impacts of the smoke, which shrouded city skylines with an orange haze in late spring. A medical journal also released a study this week. (Mike Stobbe, TIME)

• Thousands Evacuated in Canary Islands After ‘Most Complex’ Fire in 40 Years: The blaze on Tenerife has burned almost 10,000 acres and forced thousands of residents in the north to lock down or flee. (Isabella Kwai, The New York Times)

• Thousands scramble to evacuate capital of Canada’s Northwest Territories as more than 200 ‘unprecedented’ wildfires blanket region: The Northwest Territories capital Yellowknife – home to about 20,000 – and several other Northwest Territories communities were ordered to evacuate as crews battle 236 active wildfires, and a massive fire creeps toward the city and a major highway. The infernos in the Northwest Territories are among more than 1,000 fires burning across Canada as the country endures its worst fire season on record. Smoke from the fires has drifted into the US, bringing harmful pollution and worsening air quality. (Elizabeth Wolfe and Artemis Moshtaghian, CNN)

• In Maui and across America, climate change and extreme weather are hurting housing affordability: Three weeks before wildfires ravaged Maui, killing more than 100 people and displacing thousands, Hawaii’s governor, Josh Green, had warned of a different emergency: an acute housing crisis. Now Maui starts down the long process of rebuilding the more than 2,000 homes and businesses lost. Much of the devastating damage was to the homes and business where Maui’s working class lived and worked. Many find themselves now caught in both a housing crisis and a climate emergency. (Anna Bahney, CNN)

• Extreme Heat, Floods, Fire: Was Summer 2023 the New Normal? Decades of pumping greenhouse gasses into the air is heating the planet, climate scientists say, making wildfires burn farther, storms grow stronger and heat waves last longer. A warmer planet doesn’t just mean extreme heat, said Michael E. Mann, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media. (Joseph Pisani and Jennifer Calfas, WSJ)

• Tropical Storm Hilary slams Southern California with historic rainfall: New rainfall records were set across Los Angeles County after Tropical Storm Hilary crossed into Southern California near Palm Springs on Sunday evening after earlier making landfall in Mexico. It's rare for a tropical storm to hit the region. The storm is bringing the likelihood of "catastrophic and life-threatening flooding" to parts of the U.S. Southwest through Monday, while prompting unprecedented tropical storm warnings for Los Angeles and San Diego. Nevada's governor declared a state of emergency due to the threat of potential "flash flooding, rockslides and mudslides" amid forecasts that the south of the state would exceed its annual rainfall total in a short period of time due to the storm. In Arizona, the Mohave County Sheriff's Office issued evacuation orders for parts of Lake Mead National Recreation Area "due to flooding risks from Tropical Storm Hilary." (Andrew Freedman, Axios)

• California mountain and desert towns dig out of the mud from 1st tropical storm in 84 years: Californian mountain and desert towns struggle to clean mud and debris in the aftermath of South California’s first tropical storm in over eight decades. The storm caused power outages, floods, and buried homes in mud. (AP)

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• The most important economic development of recent weeks is a surge in longer-term interest rates: It could portend a new environment in which more expensive borrowing costs are here to stay. Markets increasingly are priced for a world in which there will be no return to the cheap money era of the 2010s. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was 4.35% as of [Monday] morning, the highest in 16 years. That rate was more than a full percentage point lower (3.29%) in early April. Other longer-term market rates have seen similarly dramatic rises, most notably home mortgages. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate was 7.37% Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily, and looks poised to rise again today based on the morning's bond market action. That is a two-decade high, and could create a new wave of pain in the housing market. The recent surge is particularly notable because it's during a time when the economic data has been mostly as expected and Fed officials have been quiet. That suggests it is driven by a shift in investors' long-term sentiment rather than the latest headlines. (Courtenay Brown, Axios)

• Powell warns of more interest rate hikes as inflation remains high: Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Friday warned that inflation was still far too high, and suggested the central bank may need to raise interest rates further in coming months. Despite recent data that shows inflation receding, the Fed is not declaring victory with signs that price pressures could reemerge. "Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high," Powell will tell the Jackson Hole Symposium in a highly anticipated speech. The annual gathering of central bankers and economists is hosted by the Kansas City Fed. (Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown, Axios)

• Nvidia stock surges to highest ever as AI boom rolls on: The computer chip maker has become the essential provider of GPUs -- hardware that is needed to train AI models. (Gerrit De Vynck, The Washington Post)

• A Crisis of Confidence Is Gripping China’s Economy: China’s economy, which once seemed unstoppable, is plagued by a series of problems, and a growing lack of faith in the future is verging on despair. (Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu, The New York Times)

• China’s economy is in trouble because its authoritarian demons are catching up with it and paralyzing the private sector: China’s economy is in trouble because its growth model has exhausted itself and entrenched power structures make it hard to shift gears. The key theme is not authoritarianism, or fixation on growth, but overconfidence and hubris. (Adam Tooze, Chartbook)

• US Consumers Near Day of Reckoning as Pandemic Cash Stash Shrinks: US consumers are approaching a reckoning as the excess cash they built up during the pandemic dwindles. How they respond will help determine whether the world’s largest economy can dodge a recession. (Rich Miller, Bloomberg)

• Tyson Foods plans to sell China poultry business: U.S. meat and processed food maker Tyson Foods (TSN.N) plans to sell its China poultry business, three people with knowledge of the matter said, in the latest case of a multinational firm looking to divest from the country in recent years. The company has hired Goldman Sachs (GS.N) to advise on the sale and sent preliminary information to potential buyers including a number of private equity firms, said two of the people, adding the sale process was at an early stage. (Kane Wu & Abigail Summerville, Reuters)

• Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and the Barbenheimer films are such blockbusters that they’ll add $8.5 billion to U.S. economy in just 3 months. (Augusta Saraiva and Bloomberg, Fortune)

DOMESTIC 

• Can A.I. Detect Wildfires Faster Than Humans? California Is Trying to Find Out: Firefighters are training a robot to scan the horizon for fires. It turns out a lot of things look like smoke. (Thomas Fuller, The New York Times)

• David Brooks: “How America Got Mean”: “The words that define our age reek of menace: conspiracy, polarization, mass shootings, trauma, safe spaces. We’re enmeshed in some sort of emotional, relational, and spiritual crisis, and it undergirds our political dysfunction and the general crisis of our democracy. What is going on?” (David Brooks, The Atlantic)

• OPINION: What Just Happened at West Virginia University Should Worry All of Us: In proposing last week to eliminate 169 faculty positions and cut more than 30 degree programs from its flagship university, West Virginia, the state with the fourth-highest poverty rate in the country, is engaging in a kind of educational gerrymandering. (Leif Weatherby, The New York Times)

• Unionized UPS workers approve contract leaders agreed to in late July: The Union representing 340,000 UPS workers stated that its members voted to approve a new tentative contract agreement. Over 80% of the voters were in favor of the contract, making it the highest passed contract vote within the history of the Teamsters at UPS. (Haleuya Hadero and Matt Ott, AP)

• South Carolina Supreme Court Upholds Abortion Law, Reversing Earlier Decision: On Wednesday, the South Carolina Supreme Court upheld the state's near-total abortion ban by a 4-1 vote, reversing a previous decision it had made in January. The law bans abortion after fetal cardiac activity is detected, which is typically around six weeks. (Kate Zernike, The New York Times)

• AI-generated art cannot receive copyrights, US court says: A Washington DC-based court ruled that only human-authored work can be copyrighted. The rise in AI-generated art and voicework has complicated intellectual property rights. (Reuters)

• Daily soft drink linked to increased risk of liver disease: Study of postmenopausal women found 6.8% had 85% higher risk of liver cancer compared to those who had fewer than three sugar-sweetened beverages per month. “To our knowledge, this is the first study to report an association between sugar-sweetened beverage intake and chronic liver disease mortality,” said first author Longgang Zhao of the Brigham’s Channing Division of Network Medicine. (BWH, Harvard Gazette)

• Aldi is getting bigger. Here’s why the no-frills German grocer is looking to the Southern U.S. for growth: No-frills discounter Aldi is the latest grocer to shake up the industry with big moves. The German retailer announced this week that it plans to acquire about 400 Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket locations across the Southern U.S. As part of the deal, it would take over operations of the stores, which are in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi, and put at least some of them under the Aldi name. The deal is expected to close in the first half of next year. (Melissa Repko, CNBC)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• OPINION: BRICS Summit. Putin’s virtual bravado, Xi’s big win, and 6 new members. Why this was a summit like no other: The BRICS bloc of emerging nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — this week more than doubled its membership, extending the welcome mat to cash-rich Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, outlier Iran, as well as Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia. The move breathes new life into a group set to rival the G7 and brings the world closer to multi-polarity. (Michael Bociurkiw, CNN)

• U.S, Japan and South Korea pledge close cooperation at historic summit: In a historic summit last Friday at Camp David, President Biden and his counterparts from South Korea and Japan announced they will strengthen military cooperation and turn this first-ever trilateral summit into an annual tradition. Why it matters: It was Biden's first foreign leader summit at Camp David, and marks a significant step in the rapprochement between Tokyo and Seoul — two U.S. allies whose historically fraught relations have thawed in recent months amid China's increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and ongoing nuclear threats from North Korea. (Barak Ravid, Axios)

• 18 bodies found as fires rage in Greece and Europe suffers another heat wave: As wildfires rage through Greece, the bodies of 18 people were found; currently, hundreds of firefighters in Greece are battling against 65 wildfires that have broken out within the past few days. Greece has suffered through devastating losses this wildfire season, having experienced the nation's worst recorded fires in July, simultaneously much for Europe undergoing extreme heatwaves. (Sugam Pokharel et al., (Mawad, Paddison, and Pokharel, CNN)

• France, U.S. relations grow tense over Niger coup: The coup in Niger is injecting fresh tension into the France-U.S. alliance. The two countries are at odds over how to respond to the ouster of the West African country’s president in July. (Nahal Toosi & Clea Caulcutt, Politico)

• A failed lunar mission dents Russian pride and reflects deeper problems with Moscow's space industry: Russia’s ambitious attempt to return to the moon half a century later has failed; the robotic Luna-25 probe crashed into the moon's surface over the weekend. Many believe that crash has tainted Russia's once-renowned space program. (AP)

• India lands a spacecraft near the moon's south pole, a first for the world as it joins elite club: As of Wednesday, India has become the First Nation to land a spacecraft near the moon’s South Pole, becoming the fourth country to land on the moon, showing the nation's capabilities. Scientists believe this specific area of the moon holds vital reserves of frozen water, which makes the mission even more crucial. (Ashok Sharmam and Krutika Pathi, AP)

• Plane crash in Russia kills 10, officials say; Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly on passenger list: A plane crash occurred on Wednesday in Russia, killing ten people. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, perished on the St. Petersburg-bound flight. Prior to the plane crash, Prigozhin appeared in his first video, hinting he was in Russia, stating his group Wagner was making Russia great on all continents, as well as making Africa “more free.” (CBS News)

• Fukushima wastewater released into the ocean, China bans all Japanese seafood: Starting Thursday, Japan is set to release treated nuclear radioactive water from the Fukushima power plant into the Pacific Ocean. China is highly critical of this decision and is deeply concerned about the possibility of contamination, leading the nation to ban imports of all aquatic products from Japan, which would have a significant impact on Japan's economy, causing the country to want a sit down with China where they would show the scientific proof that the water was indeed safe. (Sakura Murakami, Reuters)

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

• Prigozhin Listed as Passenger on Plane That Crashed, Killing All Aboard: Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday, killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities. “An investigation of the Embraer plane crash that happened in the Tver Region this evening was initiated,” the Federal Agency for Air Transport of Russia said in a statement, according to the state news agency Tass. “According to the passenger list, first and last name of Yevgeny Prigozhin was included in this list.” (The New York Times)

• Kremlin dismisses as ‘lies’ speculation linking it to Prigozhin’s death: The Kremlin on Friday curtly dismissed rampant speculation that it had ordered the killing of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin as “all lies,” stating that an investigation was underway to establish the cause. (Robyn Dixon and Catherine Belton, The Washington Post)

• Ukraine makes partial but ‘significant’ gain in south as counteroffensive grinds on. (Olga Voitovych et al., CNN)

• Russian pilot defected to Ukraine in his helicopter, says Ukrainian official. (Olga Voitovych et al., CNN)

• Russia Says It Destroyed Ukrainian Vessels in the Black Sea: Russia reports that its air force had destroyed two small Ukrainian naval vessels within the Black Sea, leading tensions within the sea to grow further. (Troianovski, The New York Times)

• An Orchestra’s ‘Ode to Joy’ Calls for Ukrainian Freedom: As war in Ukraine continues, so does the Ukrainian Freedom Orchestra, with a version of Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony tailored to the moment. (Ben Miller, The New York Times)

IMMIGRATION

• A federal immigration program that has allowed immigrants from Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to apply for legal entry to the U.S. is on trial Friday after Florida and other Republican-led states sued to overturn it. (Martin Vassolo, Axios)

• White House defends response to asylum seeker influx following criticism from New York governor: The White House defended its response to the asylum seeker influx facing New York Friday, arguing that without congressional action, the administration is limited in what it can do, following a letter from New York Gov. Kathy Hochul urging more action. (Priscilla Alvarez et al., CNN)

• The Steepest Hill: What One Image Shows About the Darién Gap: An increasing number of migrants are trying to pass through the perilous terrain connecting South and Central America in the hopes of reaching the United States. (Federico Rios, The New York Times)

Week of August 14 - August 18, 2023

POLITICS/ELECTION

• Trump indicted in Georgia 2020 election subversion probe: Former President Donald Trump and 18 others were indicted by an Atlanta grand jury late Monday. They face sweeping racketeering charges stemming from efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. (The New York Times)

• Officials Investigate Threats Against Trump Grand Jurors in Georgia: Some of the jurors’ identities have been shared on social media, with suggestions that they be harassed or made “infamous.” (The New York Times) 

• OPINION: It's Time to Freak Out: Donald Trump Is Very Likely Our Next President by TCG Advisor Tom Rogers. (Newsweek) 

• OPINION: Keep Your Eyes on Jack Smith: Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis may not have been the first person to get an indictment of Donald Trump, but she may have produced the biggest one — at least by some metrics. (Politico)

• Congress moves toward a short-term funding bill to quell fears of a shutdown: Speaker Kevin McCarthy told House Republicans on a conference call this week that he believes Congress will have to pass a short-term government funding bill to avoid a shutdown this fall, two sources with knowledge told NBC News. The remarks reflect a growing recognition that Congress doesn't have enough time to reach a full-year funding deal before money runs out on Sept. 30. Lawmakers are on a monthlong August recess and return in September, just a few weeks before the deadline. (NBC News)

• Trump heading for Republican 'coronation' as 2024 rivals struggle to stop him: Trump’s utter dominance of the Iowa State Fair has showcased that in spite of old and new legal troubles, Trump’s hold over the Republican electorate is firm, with his fellow contenders at a loss at how to close the gap between them and Trump. (Reuters)

• Texas Woman Charged With Threatening to Kill Judge in Trump Election Case: Tanya S. Chutkan, the judge overseeing the prosecution of former President Donald J. Trump on charges of seeking to overturn the 2020 election, was threatened through a voice message by Abigail Jo Shry. Within the message, Shry used racial slurs against the judge as well as threatened to kill Chutkan if the former President is not elected in 2024. (The New York Times)

• White House Targets Key Democrats on Potential Saudi-Israel Pact: The White House needs to persuade two historic adversaries to find common ground. But then the administration faces a potentially more daunting challenge: getting 67 senators to go along with it. (The New York Times)

• US judge won't block Florida law barring Chinese citizens from owning homes: A US judge did not block Florida from barring citizens of China and other so called “countries of concern” on the grounds that the ban is based on nationality, not race. (Reuters)

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE

• Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision: In the first ruling of its kind nationwide, a Montana state court decided Monday in favor of young people who alleged the state violated their right to a “clean and healthful environment” by promoting the use of fossil fuels. The court determined that a provision in the Montana Environmental Policy Act has harmed the state’s environment and the young plaintiffs by preventing Montana from considering the climate impacts of energy projects. The provision is accordingly unconstitutional, the court said. “This is a huge win for Montana, for youth, for democracy and for our climate,” said Julia Olson, the executive director of Our Children’s Trust, which brought Held v. Montana. “More rulings like this will certainly come.” The sweeping win, one of the strongest decisions on climate change ever issued by a court, could energize the environmental movement and usher in a wave of cases aimed at advancing action on climate change, experts say. (The Washington Post)

• Wildfires in Northern California near the border with Oregon have triggered evacuation orders and road closures in rural communities, as a record heat wave envelopes the Pacific Northwest. (Axios)

• A quarter of humanity faces extreme water stress – and it’s poised to get worse, new report finds: The world is facing an “unprecedented water crisis” driven by soaring demand and the accelerating climate crisis, according to a new report. A quarter of the world’s population currently faces “extremely high water stress” each year, with an additional 1 billion people expected to be affected by 2050, according to the World Resources Institute’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas published Wednesday. (CNN)

• Death toll from Maui’s wildfires rises to 111 – with possibly 1,000 still missing – as tensions escalate over the cause and response. (CNN)

• State of emergency declared in Canada's Northwest Territories due to wildfires: The government of Canada's Northwest Territories declared a state of emergency on Tuesday due to wildfires that have largely destroyed one remote community and are also posing a risk to territorial capital Yellowknife. (Yahoo News UK)

• Drought Forces Spain to Source Drinking Water From the Sea: Mediterranean region is becoming warmer and drier more quickly than most places, prompting a costly revamp of infrastructure. Rainfall has been sparse at the Sau Reservoir, one of the biggest in the Spanish region of Catalonia. (Wall Street Journal)

• Biden administration announces $50 million for Upper Colorado River Basin infrastructure: The Upper Colorado River Basin is facing an historic drought and, despite record snowpack last winter, much of the Intermountain West still remains in drought conditions. The Department of Interior announced on Monday that it’s giving $50 million over the next five years to improve key water infrastructure and enhance drought-related data collection across the Upper Colorado River Basin. (Deseret News) 

• Dry Springs in Central Texas Warn of Water Shortage Ahead: Heat, drought and booming population growth have stressed the aquifers that supply drinking water to millions of people. (Inside Climate News)

Economy/business

• Wall Street is hiking forecasts for economic growth: Gloomy warnings about an imminent recession have given way to calls that the economy is now facing the opposite: accelerating conditions. (Axios)

• Fed, economists make course correction on US recession predictions. (Reuters)

• THE ATLANTIC: America’s Mixed-Signals Economy: The U.S. economy is actually doing pretty well. But for working people navigating mixed messages and high prices, the dominant feeling has been meh. (The Atlantic)

• Fed officials fretted US inflation might not cool further unless economy slows down: Federal Reserve officials were wary that inflation would slow further unless the US economy and labor markets also cool down, according to minutes from their July policy meeting released on Wednesday. That means a rate hike in September remains in the cards, given the robust economic activity of this summer. It’s also clear that the decision won’t come without a heated debate since “a couple” officials favored not hiking last month, according to the minutes, illustrating the divide among officials. (CNN)

• How Google is Planning to Beat OpenAI: In April, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai took an unusual step: merging two large artificial intelligence teams—with distinct cultures and code—to catch up to and surpass OpenAI and other rivals. Now the test of that effort is coming, with hundreds of people scrambling to release a group of large machine-learning models—one of the highest-stakes products the company has ever built—this fall. (The Information)

• US Office Woes and China’s Slowdown Rattle Singapore’s REIT Market: One of Asia’s largest markets for real-estate investment trusts is reeling from America’s office slump and China’s slowing economy. Some property-trust managers have asked regulators to loosen leverage limits, after their assets fell in value. (The New York Times) 

• US loss of AAA badge a reminder of 'regime shift' for government debt: Financial markets barely flinched when Fitch stripped the United States of its top credit rating, but it served as a reminder of longer-term structural risks investors in government bonds are yet to grasp. (Reuters)

• Jobless Claims Fell Last Week, Trending Near Historic Lows: The amount of individuals filing for unemployment benefits within the last week has declined, indicating that the United States labor market remains strong. (Wall Street Journal)

• EV battery imports face scrutiny under US law on Chinese forced labor: US efforts to prevent links to forced labor in Chinese supply chains have led to scrutiny for electric-vehicle batteries and other car parts. These efforts are mandated by the Uyghur Force Labor Prevention Act, and have already affected solar energy projects.  (Reuters)

• US to impose tariffs on tin mill steel from Canada, China, Germany: Due to differences between international and local prices, Canadian, German, and Chinese tin steel are to be tariffed. There has been multiple sources of pushback, from the Can Manufacturers Institute to multiple members of Congress. (Reuters)

domestic

• Appeals Court Upholds Legality of Abortion Pill but With Significant Restrictions: The restrictions, which would prevent mifepristone from being mailed to patients and would require in-person doctor visits, are on hold until the Supreme Court weighs in. (The New York Times)

• At Camp David, Biden hails ‘next era of partnership’ between U.S., South Korea and Japan: President Joe Biden on Friday signed historic agreements with the leaders of South Korea and Japan, bridging the fraught history between the two countries with promises of strengthening each nation’s economic and national security interest. (Politico)

• Partisan Gaps Expand Most on Government Power, Climate: From the broadest perspective, the issues and topics on which the partisan gaps have grown the most since 2003 are (predictably) the issues that have been at the forefront of the political and ideological battleground in recent years and that have gained high visibility in the media. These include views of government power, global warming and the environment, education, abortion, foreign trade, immigration, gun laws, healthcare, and income tax. Attitudes on other issues have undergone less change over time -- in some instances, resulting in partisan gaps that have stayed roughly the same since 2003. These include views on the moral acceptability of various issues such as sex before marriage and having a baby outside of wedlock and satisfaction with the state of race relations. (Gallup)

• OPINION: How Do We Fix the Scandal That Is American Health Care? (Wall Street Journal)

• With U.S. overdose deaths hitting new highs in recent years, two-thirds of Americans now have either personally experienced addiction, or have witnessed it among family members. That’s according to a new KFF poll, which surveyed people on addiction to illegal drugs, alcohol, and painkillers. Other key findings: (STAT News, KFF Poll)

• EXPLAINER: Why is a police raid on a newspaper in Kansas so unusual?: While there are usually tensions between the press and public officials, the police raid of a news organization’s office is rare, The raid was justified by the police as evidence gathering for wrong doing on the part of the journalists, but not only was a subpoena, not merely a search warrant, necessary for the raid, but could constitute a violation of the First Amendment. This raid also is a sign of the erosion of democratic norms. (AP)

• More Americans Are Ending Up Homeless—at a Record Rate: The U.S. has seen a record increase in homeless people this year as the Covid-19 pandemic fades, according to a Wall Street Journal review of data from around the country. The data so far this year are up roughly 11% from 2022, a sharp jump that would represent by far the biggest recorded increase since the government started tracking comparable numbers in 2007. The next highest increase was a 2.7% jump in 2019, excluding an artificially high increase last year caused by pandemic counting interruptions. This year’s surge reflects a host of pressures around the U.S. such as rising housing costs, lack of affordable rental units and the nation’s continuing opioid crisis, according to reports from nonprofits and government agencies counting the homeless. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think: Delivery vans in Pittsburgh. Buses in Milwaukee. Cranes loading freight at the Port of Los Angeles. Every municipal building in Houston. All are powered by electricity derived from the sun, wind or other sources of clean energy. Across the country, a profound shift is taking place that is nearly invisible to most Americans. The nation that burned coal, oil and gas for more than a century to become the richest economy on the planet, as well as historically the most polluting, is rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels. A similar energy transition is already well underway in Europe and elsewhere. But the United States is catching up, and globally, change is happening at a pace that is surprising even the experts who track it closely. Wind and solar power are breaking records, and renewables are now expected to overtake coal by 2025 as the world’s largest source of electricity. Automakers have made electric vehicles central to their business strategies and are openly talking about an expiration date on the internal combustion engine. Heating, cooling, cooking and some manufacturing are going electric. (New York Times)

• Hawaiian Electric slapped with 3 lawsuits after deadly wildfires: Hawaii's primary energy provider faces at least three lawsuits, two of which seek class action status, after catastrophic wildfires devastated the state, killing at least 99 people and destroying the historic town of Lahaina on Maui. What caused the wildfires remains unknown, but the lawsuits allege they were ignited by strong winds knocking down Hawaiian Electric's energized power lines. (Axios)

• Pentagon review calls for reforms to reverse spike in sexual misconduct at military academies: The Pentagon demands improvements in leadership and the end of toxic practices in order to address a spike in sexual assault and misconduct. (AP)

international/world

• The U.S. Is Turning Away From Its Biggest Scientific Partner at a Precarious Time: U.S. moves to cut research ties with China over security concerns threaten American progress in critical areas, some scientists warn. The decoupling, which began in recent years with investigations into Chinese researchers in the U.S., has accelerated as tensions have risen between the superpowers. Now some US lawmakers are pushing to let a landmark agreement to cooperate on science and technology, signed in 1979 and renewed routinely since, expire this month. (Wall Street Journal)

• FOREIGN AFFAIRS: The End of China’s Economic Miracle: How Beijing’s Struggles Could Be an Opportunity for Washington. (Foreign Affairs)

• UK inflation falls to 17-month low of 6.8% but unlikely to derail another interest rate rise: The Office for National Statistics said the annual rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was 6.8% in July, its lowest level since February 2022, the month Russia invaded Ukraine and sent energy prices surging. The decline from June’s 7.9% rate was in line with economists’ expectations. The statistics agency said the fall was largely driven by lower energy prices as last year’s sharp increases fell out of the annual comparison. It said that food price inflation, which also spiked sharply in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, eased too. Though the decline in the headline rate of inflation will be welcome news for hard-pressed households, it’s unlikely to derail market expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again next month, especially as wages are rising at a record high. Wednesday’s figures also showed that the core rate of inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food, remains high. (AP)

• NYT: What China Isn’t Telling the World About Its Economy: Beijing stopped releasing youth unemployment figures in its latest attempt to play down negative trends as growth stalls, and global concerns grow. (The New York Times)

• U.K. Arrests Bulgarian Trio Suspected of Spying for Russia: British police have arrested five people, including at least three Bulgarian nationals, believed to have been living undercover in the U.K. while working for Russian intelligence, the latest in a series of arrests across Western countries of alleged Russian agents posing as seemingly ordinary people. (Wall Street Journal)

• Niger’s coup leaders say they will prosecute deposed President Mohamed Bazoum for ‘high treason.’ (AP)

• Saudi Arabia, Iran relations 'on the right track', Iranian minister says after Riyadh talks: According to Iran’s foreign minister, Saudi Arabia and Iran are progressing in their attempts to mend ties after long term hostility. (Reuters)

russia/ukraine

• Deadly air strikes target cities in western Ukraine: Overnight air strikes killed at least three people in western Ukraine's Volyn region, the regional governor said early on Tuesday, as more strikes were reported in the neighbouring Lviv region. The attacks came a day after Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky was pictured visiting troops in the eastern frontline region of Donetsk. (France24)

• Russia risks war with NATO in Black Sea, former top commander in Europe warns: Moscow risks sparking a direct war with NATO by intercepting ships in international waters and seeking to impose an economic stranglehold on Ukraine, NATO's former Supreme Allied Commander Europe is warning. (Politico)

• Ex-U.S. Admiral James Stavridis, who led the alliance's forces on the continent between 2009 and 2013, told POLITICO that escalations at sea — including the boarding of a Turkish ship on Sunday — could force Kyiv's partners to intervene to prevent Ukraine's economy being crippled. (Politico)

• Russian Central Bank hikes interest rate to 12 percent after ruble’s decline: The Russian currency has lost almost a quarter of its value against the US dollar since President Vladimir Putin began an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and it has decreased steadily against major world currencies in recent weeks. The economy has been battered by Western sanctions, inflation and an acute labor shortage, caused in part by men fleeing the country to avoid military conscription. All the while, military spending has soared as the war grinds on. (The Washington Post)

• Ruble touches 99 to the US dollar, continuing the Russian currency’s monthslong fall: The Russian ruble has hit its lowest level since the first weeks of the war in Ukraine. Domestic demand combined with the lack of exports have all contributed to the weakening of the ruble. (AP)

• Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help: Recently leaked documents reveal that Russia, with the help of Iran, is building a factory to create thousands of attack drones to bombard Ukrainian cities. Russia's goal is to produce 6000 drones by the Summer of 2025; such advances could greatly help Russia to gain a much-needed advantage within the War in Ukraine. (The Washington Post)

• Russian raid off Turkey's coast tests Erdogan's resolve: Russia’s attacks on merchant shipping near Turkey’s coast makes Turkey’s efforts to coax Russia back to a grain-export deal more difficult. These attacks make it harder for Turkey to maintain good relations with Russia. (Reuters) 

• US approved Denmark and Netherlands sending F-16 jets to Ukraine: As of Friday, the US has approved a request by the Netherlands and Denmark to send F-16 fighter jets produced by America to Ukraine. In past months Ukrainian president Zelenskyy has often pressed western allies to send modern fighter jets to help the war efforts in Ukraine, which currently rely on outdated fighters that are inferior to Russia’s. (Financial Times)

immigration

• Migrants moved from NYC to suburbs face perilous path to find work: When asylum-seekers cross the U.S. border with Mexico, many have a single priority — finding work. Or as one migrant put it: “Earning the green paper.” But for the 100,000 migrants who have come to New York over the past year, they have been unable to be legally employed. The problem has created a standoff between the White House and New York leaders, leaving the migrants in the middle of a bureaucratic mess. (Politico)

• US Government's own experts found 'barbaric' and 'negligent' conditions in ICE detention: These findings are all part of a trove of more than 1,600 pages of previously secret inspection reports written by experts hired by the Department of Homeland Security's Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties. In examining more than two dozen facilities across 16 states from 2017 to 2019, these expert inspectors found "negligent" medical care (including mental health care), "unsafe and filthy" conditions, racist abuse of detainees, inappropriate pepper-spraying of mentally ill detainees and other problems that, in some cases, contributed to detainee deaths. The records were obtained in response to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit brought by NPR. After two years, a federal judge found that the government had violated the nation's public records law and ordered the release of the documents. (NPR)

Week of August 7 - August 11, 2023

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE

• Maui wildfires rage across the island as death toll climbs. At least 80 people have been killed in ‘unprecedented’ wildfires that are raging across Hawaii's Big Island and Maui, officials said Wednesday. Much of Lahaina, a touristic and economic hub of 9,000 people, has been destroyed and hundreds of families displaced, Hawaii Gov. Josh Green said. Residents reported heartbreaking destruction. "We have no more Lahaina. It’s gone," Mark Stefl told CNN. (CNN)

• NOAA Adjusts Hurricane Season Prediction to ‘Above-Normal’: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60 percent. The forecasters now expect 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength, packing sustained winds of 111 miles an hour or more. (Inside Climate News)

• It’s hot. And it’s going to stay hot for millions of Americans: It’s been a scorching summer for many Americans, with tens of millions living in areas under extreme heat. Over the last three weeks, more than a third of the population has experienced weekly average maximum temperatures above 90 degrees, particularly in the southern half of the country. Last week, nearly 12% of Americans dealt with average highs topping 100 degrees, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s the highest percentage of Americans feeling average highs in the triple digits so far this summer. (CNN)

• Severe Storms Tear Through Eastern US: Communities from Tennessee to New York were clearing debris on Tuesday, a day after a wide-ranging storm system that tore through the Eastern United States killed at least two people, left more than a million homes and businesses without power and grounded hundreds of flights. (NYT)

• Torrent of Water From Alaska Glacier Floods Juneau: Residents in Alaska’s capital, Juneau, were urged on Monday to stay away from the Mendenhall River after flooding from a glacier destroyed two buildings and eroded riverbanks in the city over the weekend. Local officials declared a state of emergency. (NYT)

• World’s oldest moss could go extinct as a result of climate crisis: The world’s oldest moss, found in the Himalayas, may not be able to survive climate breakdown, scientists have said. Takakia is a small, slow-growing moss that can be found only in small quantities in remote parts of the US, Japan and Tibet. After a decade-long expedition, scientists have analysed its DNA for the first time to learn how climate breakdown is affecting the species and its habitat. Takakia, which has been growing for 390m years, is one of the fastest-evolving species ever found, but that may not be enough to save it, the researchers warned. (The Guardian)

• Texas is preparing for more wildfires without a break from heat in the forecast: The number of acres this year is dramatically lower than 2022. But a rash of new fires have put state and local officials on edge. (Texas Tribune)

• Thousands of San Diego County residents were ordered to evacuate their homes amid a raging brush fire with the potential to spread to several hundred acres, officials said. (Los Angeles Times)

• Earth Just Had Its Hottest Month on Record: The world is baking. July was Earth’s hottest month on record, surpassing the global monthly average temperature record set in July 2019, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a European Union-funded scientific agency. Deadly heat blanketed parts of North America, Asia and Europe as wildfires blazed in Greece and Canada, hitting economies. Water shortages and high humidity affected parts of the Middle East. Residents in China contended with both extreme flooding and a heat wave as the country set a new national temperature record. All this came on the heels of the world’s hottest June on record. (WSJ) 

• Extreme weather causing chaos in northern and southern Europe: Soaring temperatures and autumn-like storms are igniting wildfires and flooding the streets of Europe this summer. (Euronews)

• Deadly floods hit China’s major grain-producing region, fueling food security concerns. Days of heavy rain have caused severe flooding in China’s leading grain-producing region in the northeast, killing 14 people and raising concerns about food security as floodwater inundated farmlands. (CNN)

• Sea ice in the Antarctic region has fallen to a record low this year as a result of rising global temperatures and there is no quick fix to reverse the damage done, scientists said in a new study of the impact of climate change on the continent. (Reuters) 

• This Scorching Summer Is Taking a Toll on Your Favorite Foods: A perfect storm of extreme weather and war have hit northern hemisphere crops like wheat, peaches, and olives. Welcome to the increasingly precarious future of food. (Wired)

DOMESTIC

• Rising political threats take US into uncharted territory as 2024 election looms. (Associated Press)

• Charlie Sykes: As we gird our legal loins for all of this, I want to call your attention to this rather gobsmacking development: Two prominent conservative law professors have concluded that Donald J. Trump is ineligible to be president under a provision of the Constitution that bars people who have engaged in an insurrection from holding government office. In a lengthy article that will be published in The University of Pennsylvania Law Review, the two legal scholars— William Baude of the University of Chicago and Michael Stokes Paulsen of the University of St. Thomas — write that Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment “forbids holding office by former office holders who then participate in insurrection or rebellion.” Their conclusion: “Donald Trump cannot be president — cannot run for president, cannot become president, cannot hold office — unless two-thirds of Congress decides to grant him amnesty for his conduct on Jan. 6.” “The bottom line is that Donald Trump both ‘engaged in’ ‘insurrection or rebellion’ and gave ‘aid or comfort’ to others engaging in such conduct, within the original meaning of those terms as employed in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.” “Section 3’s disqualification rule may and must be followed — applied, honored, obeyed, enforced, carried out — by anyone whose job it is to figure out whether someone is legally qualified to office,” the authors wrote. That includes election administrators, the article said. As the Times notes, this is not Resistance porn; it is the product of two well-known conservative legal scholars who “are active members of the Federalist Society, the conservative legal group, and proponents of originalism, the method of interpretation that seeks to determine the Constitution’s original meaning.” (NYT)

• US researchers duplicate a nuclear fusion feat: Scientists at the federal Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory said they had again managed to achieve net gain in a fusion reaction — meaning that it yielded more energy than it consumed — but managed to get even more power out this time. The results are an advancement in a process that researchers hope will produce clean and cheap energy, though it could be decades away. (NYT)

• A federal judge denied a request from Donald Trump’s legal team for a deadline extension over the handling of evidence in the 2020 election subversion case. Trump’s lawyers will have to respond by Monday afternoon to the Justice Department’s proposal for a protective order. (CNN)

• Donald Trump took to Truth Social to taunt Mike Pence — a likely witness against him — just hours after prosecutors warned a judge his posts could have a “harmful chilling effect” on witnesses in the criminal case against him.  Said Trump: “WOW, it’s finally happened! Liddle’ Mike Pence, a man who was about to be ousted as Governor Indiana until I came along and made him V.P., has gone to the Dark Side.” He added: “I never told a newly emboldened (not based on his 2% poll numbers!) Pence to put me above the Constitution, or that Mike was ‘too honest.’ He’s delusional, and now he wants to show he’s a tough guy.” (Political Wire)

• Pence refutes Trump legal team’s claims: “Mike Pence refuted the notion that former President Donald Trump only asked him to delay the counting of electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021, to allow for audits of state election results, disputing the characterization of their interactions made by some members of Trump’s legal team,” CBS News reports. Said Pence: “That’s not what happened.” He added: “From sometime in the middle of December, the president began to be told that I had some authority to reject or return votes back to the states. I had no such authority.”  (Political Wire)

• Drug user cannot be barred from owning guns, US court rules: A federal appeals court on Wednesday ruled that a decades-old law prohibiting users of illegal drugs from owning firearms was unconstitutional as applied to the case of a marijuana user, the latest fallout from a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last year that expanded gun rights. (Reuters)

• US. District Court temporarily blocks enforcement of Idaho transgender bathroom law: In Roe v. Critchfield, plaintiffs allege state’s school bathroom law discriminates against transgender students. (Idaho Capital Sun)

POLITICS/ELECTION

• Ohio voters rejected an effort to raise the threshold to amend the state’s constitution ahead of a November referendum on whether to constitutionally guarantee abortion rights there, handing abortion rights advocates a critical victory. Known as Issue 1, the measure would have changed Ohio’s referendum law – lifting the threshold to amend the state’s constitution from a simple majority to 60% of the vote. (CNN)

• Judge Limits Trump’s Ability to Share Jan. 6 Evidence: The federal judge overseeing former President Donald J. Trump’s prosecution on charges of seeking to overturn the 2020 election rejected his request on Friday to be able to speak broadly about evidence and witnesses — and warned Mr. Trump she would take necessary “measures” to keep him from intimidating witnesses or tainting potential jurors. (NYT)

• Republicans Praise High Court: As on many opinion measures, ratings of the Supreme Court differ starkly by political party. Currently, 62% of Republicans versus 17% of Democrats approve of the job the court is doing, as do 41% of independents. The 45-percentage-point party gap is the third largest Gallup has measured. It trails the 61-point gap (74% approval among Republicans, 13% among Democrats) measured a year ago after the court overturned Roe, and a 58-point gap in 2015 (76% Democrats, 18% Republicans) after the Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage nationwide and upheld a challenge to President Barack Obama’s healthcare law. In three Gallup ratings of the court since the Dobbs ruling, no less than 60% of Republicans and no more than 23% of Democrats have approved of the Supreme Court. In the four pre-Dobbs polls conducted in 2020 and 2021, there was little partisan difference in views of the court. (Gallup)

• Democrats drastically overperforming in special elections: “An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean — or the relative liberal or conservative history — of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.” (ABCNews)

• “Many Republicans refuse to acknowledge Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, saying they have lost faith in the electoral system. They also have doubts that 2024 will deliver a legitimate winner, while Democrats worry that Republicans will contest an outcome that doesn’t go their way.” Incredible takeaway: “Close to 70% of Republicans believe that President Biden didn’t legitimately win the election, several polls show, despite multiple federal and state investigations, as well as court decisions, finding no evidence of fraud extensive enough to have changed the result.”  (Wall Street Journal)

• Former Vice President Mike Pence qualifies for first Republican presidential primary debate. (Axios)

• POLITICO: What Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán Understand About Your Brain: Why do some people who support Trump also wind up believing conspiracy theories? There’s a scientific explanation for that. Marcel Danesi writes, “My research analyzes real speeches made by politicians past and present, including those of Trump, Orbán and Putin, using cognitive linguistics — a branch of linguistics that examines the relationship between language and the mind. What I have found is that throughout history, speeches by dictators and autocrats have one thing in common: they use dehumanizing metaphors to instill and propagate hatred of others. It is well-documented that for example words like “reptiles” and “parasites” were used by the Nazi regime to compare outsiders and minorities to animals. Strongmen throughout history have referred to targeted social groups as “rats” or “pests” or “a plague.” And it’s effective regardless of whether the people who hear this language are predisposed to jump to extreme conclusions. Once someone is tuned into these metaphors, their brain actually changes in ways that make them more likely to believe bigger lies, even conspiracy theories. These metaphors are part of a cognitive process that entraps some people in this kind of thinking while others are unaffected.” (Politico)

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• US inflation rises for the first time in a year to 3.2% rate, but underlying measures remain mild: Inflation in the United States rose in July after 12 straight months of declines, boosted by costlier housing. But excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation matched the smallest monthly increase in nearly two years. The inflation figure the government reported Thursday showed that consumer prices increased 3.2% percent from a year earlier. That was up from a 3 percent annual rise in June, which was the lowest rate in more than two years. The July inflation figure remained far below last year’s peak of 9.1 percent, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The Fed, economists and investors, though, pay particular attention to the core inflation figures for signs of where inflationary pressures might be headed. From June to July, core inflation remained a tame 0.2 percent. Thursday’s price data will be among the key barometers the Fed will weigh in deciding whether to continue raising interest rates. In its drive to tame inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022 to a 22-year high. (Politico)

• Berkshire Hathaway’s cash and investments in short-term Treasuries surged to $147bn at the end of the second quarter, underscoring Warren Buffett’s faith in the backbone of global financial markets despite the rocky political climate in Washington: The sprawling conglomerate — which owns the BNSF railroad and Geico insurer — increased the holdings by nearly $17bn in the second quarter, to sit just below an all-time high of $149bn set in 2021. More than $120bn of that sum is invested in short-term Treasury bills. (Financial Times)

• The US Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Governor Michelle Bowman said: Bowman said she supported the Fed’s quarter-point increase in interest rates last month, given still-high inflation, strong consumer spending, a rebound in the housing market and a labor market that is helping to feed higher prices. “I also expect that additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC’s 2 percent target,” she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association, referring to the Fed’s rate-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee. (CNBC)

• Texas power prices surged more than 800% as searing heat pushes demand toward record levels and strains supplies on the state grid: Electricity prices for the grid rose to more than $2,500 a megawatt-hour for Sunday evening, up from Saturday’s high of about $275, according to data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the grid operator. The surplus of available power capacity on the grid versus power consumption will narrow to 1.6 gigawatts in the hour ending at 6 p.m. Sunday, a level that can trigger emergency responses, though Ercot has additional reserves it can tap to meet demand. (Bloomberg)

• ANALYSIS: Gary Gensler, the chairman of the SEC, believes A.I. could be the next big systemic risk to the financial system: In 2020, Gensler co-wrote a paper about deep learning and financial stability. It concluded that just a few A.I. companies will build the foundational models that underpin the tech tools that lots of businesses will come to rely on. The recent proliferation of generative A.I. tools like ChatGPT has demonstrated that the technology is set to transform business and society. . Gensler expects that the United States will most likely end up with two or three foundational A.I. models. This will deepen interconnections across the economic system, making a financial crash more likely because when one model or data set becomes central, it increases “herding” behavior, meaning that everyone will rely on the same information and respond similarly. “This technology will be the center of future crises, future financial crises,” Gensler said. “It has to do with this powerful set of economics around scale and networks.” The S.E.C. last month proposed a rule that would require platforms to eliminate conflicts of interest in their technology. “You’re not supposed to put the adviser ahead of the investor, you’re not supposed to put the broker ahead of the investor,” Gensler said. “And so we put out a specific proposal about addressing those conflicts that could be embedded in the models.” Who is responsible if generative A.I. gives faulty financial advice? “Investment advisers under the law have a fiduciary duty, a duty of care, and a duty of loyalty to their clients,” Gensler said. “And whether you’re using an algorithm, you have that same duty of care.” (NYT)

• Debt costs threaten to wipe out apartment buildings across the US: Investors bid up the prices of multifamily buildings for years, attracted by steadily rising rents and the prospect of outsize returns. But many took on too much debt before a sudden surge in interest rates, slowing rent growth and rising building expenses. Apartment-building values fell 14% for the year ended in June, according to data company CoStar. Outstanding multifamily mortgages have risen to about $2 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Nearly $1 trillion in multifamily debt is set to come due by 2027, according to data provider Trepp. (Wall Street Journal)

• Which States Are Contributing the Most to U.S. GDP? The seven most populous states, California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio are also the seven biggest contributors to U.S. GDP, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Yet, California is way ahead of the competition as far as per-capita contribution goes. While 11.7 percent of Americans live in California, the state contributed 14.2 percent to GDP in Q1 of 2023. New York state, where 5.9 percent of Americans live, had a share of 8.1 percent of GDP that quarter. Florida, which has a 6.7 percent share of population, only contributed 5.5 percent of GDP. As far as regions go, the Southeast, including populous states Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, contributed the biggest share of just over a fifth to U.S. GDP. The Far West held the second largest share of almost exactly one fifth, largely driven by California. (Statista)

• Judge sends FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to jail, says crypto mogul tampered with witnesses: Sam Bankman-Fried had his bail revoked after the judge concluded that Bankman-Fried tried to influence witnesses against him. Bankman-Fried is accused of stealing billions of dollars in FTX customer deposits to fund his businesses and speculation in investments as well as illegal campaign donations. (Associated Press)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio assassinated at campaign event as a deadly escalation of violence grips the South American country. (CNN) 

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that his government will move ahead with changing the makeup of the Judicial Selection Committee, the most far-reaching and controversial measure in the judicial shakeup package. He intimated that he was still seeking consensus on this. After that, he said, he would shelve the rest of the judicial overhaul plan. “We’ve already done quite a bit,” Netanyahu told the Bloomberg financial news outlet. “I stopped the judicial legislation for three months, seeking consensus from the other side – unfortunately not getting it. Then [I] brought in a relatively minor part of the reform, passed it,” he said, referencing the passage two weeks ago of the “reasonableness law,” which bars judicial review of government and ministerial decisions on the grounds of their reasonableness. (Times of Israel)

• A combined Russian and Chinese naval force patrolled near the coast of Alaska earlier this week in what US experts said appeared to be the largest such flotilla to approach American shores: Eleven Russian and Chinese ships steamed close to the Aleutian Islands, according to US officials. The ships, which never entered U.S. territorial waters and have since left, were shadowed by four U.S. destroyers and P-8 Poseidon aircraft. “It is a historical first,” said Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a retired Navy captain. “Given the context of the war in Ukraine and tensions around Taiwan, this move is highly provocative.” (Wall Street Journal)

• About half of the world's population "can expect to develop" at least one type of mental disorder by the time they are 75 years old, according to a new study published in the scientific journal The Lancet Psychiatry: The number of Americans experiencing mental health challenges has risen in recent years, particularly during the pandemic. The study finds evidence that certain disorders — such as depression and addiction — are also on the rise at the global level. Of the 13 disorders included in the survey, the most common among women were depression, a specific phobia — defined as "a disabling anxiety that interferes with daily life" — and post-traumatic stress disorder. For men, the most common were alcohol abuse, depression and a specific phobia. (Axios)

• Consumer prices in China have fallen into deflation for the first time in more than two years, in one of the starkest indicators of the challenges facing policymakers as they struggle to revive demand: The consumer price index fell 0.3 per cent year on year in July, compared with no change a month earlier. The producer price index, a gauge of prices as goods leave factory gates, was down 4.4 per cent. (Financial Times)

• US lawmakers urge block on some military aid to Egypt over rights concerns: Egyptian human rights concerns have caused a group of Democratic Representatives to withhold military aid. US law requires about a quarter of foreign military assistance to be subject to human rights certification. Recently, the Biden administration halted $130 million of the $300 million subject to certification over Egyptian human rights concerns. (Reuters)

• US investors flag retaliation risks after Biden's China tech curbs: US investors are worried about China either responding with tech trade restrictions of their own or refusing to buy US tech in light of new US investment rules and regulations. (Reuters)

• Poland to double troops number at border with Belarus, accuses it of organizing illegal migration: Poland has deployed 2,000 additional troops to its eastern border in light of fears of Belarussian illegal immigration. Poland has accused Belarus of organizing illegal immigration to Poland and is one of many factors that have heightened tensions between Belarus and Poland. (Associated Press)

• Niger coup supporters rally as regional force mulls intervention: Thousands of Nigerien people have demonstrated their support for the military coup as West African regional leaders were considering an invasion to restore civilian rule. Due to Niger’s uranium deposits, a coup in Niger could be destabliizing. (Reuters)

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

• Zelenskyy fires heads of military enlistment in all Ukrainian regions: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Friday that the heads of all Ukraine's regional military recruitment centres were being dismissed from their jobs amid concerns about corruption. (France24)

• Poland is planning to move around 10,000 troops to the border with Belarus to support the border guard, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said. In an interview on Polish National Radio, Blaszczak said whilst 10,000 soldiers will be on the border, four thousand will directly support the border guard and the remaining 6,000 will be in reserve. (CNN)

• Ukraine’s Sea Drones Alter Balance of Power in Black Sea: The strikes have intensified in recent days as Ukraine has retaliated against a wave of Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and threats to attack civilian ships heading to Ukraine. Russia also withdrew in July from an international agreement that allowed Ukraine to resume its Black Sea grain exports last year, imperiling a key link in the global food-supply chain. (WSJ)

• Ukraine declares war on Russia’s Black Sea shipping: Russian ports and ships on the Black Sea — including tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil to Europe — could justifiably be attacked by the Ukrainian military as part of efforts to weaken Moscow's war machine, a senior Kyiv official warned Monday in the wake of two recent attacks on Russian vessels. "Everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are our valid military targets," Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told POLITICO, saying the move was retaliation for Russia withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal and unleashing a series of missile attacks on agricultural stores and ports. “This story started with Russia blocking the grain corridor, threatening to attack our vessels, destroying our ports,” Ustenko said. “Our maritime infrastructure is under constant attack." (Politico)

IMMIGRATION

• Crossings along US-Mexico border jump as migrants defy extreme heat and asylum restrictions: The number of migrants crossing the southern border illegally, particularly across the inhospitable Arizona desert, has increased sharply after falling to a two-year low in June, despite record heat levels, government statistics obtained by CBS News show. (CBS News)

• Mayor Adams Says Migrant Influx Will Cost New York City $12 Billion. As newcomers continue to arrive in the hundreds each week, the city increased its estimate for how much it will cost to house them and provide other services. (NYT)

Week of July 31 - August 4, 2023

POLITICS/ELECTION

• Former President Donald Trump has been indicted in efforts to overturn the 2020 election. (Tierney Sneed and Zachary Cohen, CNN) 

• Nearly Two-Thirds Think Trump Charges Are Serious: A new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds 65% of U.S. adults think the charges are serious, including 51% who said they are very serious and 14% who said they are somewhat serious. Only 24% said they are not serious, including 17% who said they are not serious at all. Just over half — 52% — think Trump should have been charged with a crime in this case, while 32% said he should not have been. And a plurality of Americans (49%) said Trump should suspend his presidential campaign, while 36% said he shouldn’t. (Political Wire)

• Defense secretary issues new memo on how to reshuffle Pentagon leadership roles amid Senator Tuberville blockade. (Natasha Bertrand, CNN)

• House GOP worries that hardliners actually want a shutdown: Speaker Kevin McCarthy insists Congress will avoid a government shutdown in the fall. But some members of his right flank seem to be embracing that outcome. (Sarah Ferris and Caitlin Emma, Politico)

• Chris Christie meets with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an unannounced visit to Kyiv: The former New Jersey Governor is the second 2024 GOP presidential candidate to visit President Zelenskyy, praising Ukraine’s leader for “the resolve it takes to survive a war and ultimately win it.” Former Vice President Mike Pence visited Kyiv in June. (The New York Times)

• ANALYSIS: Even Trump’s indictments haven’t shattered the deadlock between the parties. Here’s why. (Ronald Brownstein, CNN)

• Georgia Prosecutor Says She’s ‘Ready to Go’: Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis told WXIA that she will soon announce charging decisions around efforts by Donald Trump and his allies to overturn Georgia’s 2020 presidential election result. Said Willis: “The work is accomplished. We’ve been working for two and half years. We’re ready to go.” Willis has previously signaled that she would make any charging announcements between July 31 and the end of August. (Political Wire)

• DeSantis expresses support for Senator Tuberville’s block on military promotions, asserts the Pentagon was ‘violating the law’ with abortion travel policy. (Kelly Garrity, Politico)

• OPINION: I Don’t See a ‘Rogue’ Supreme Court. (David French, The New York Times)

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE

• Antarctica is missing over 1 million square miles of floating sea ice, even though it's currently the dead of winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Scientists don't know what is driving the shortfall, but they are deeply concerned about its consequences, as sea ice influences the planet's climate, global ocean currents and marine ecosystems. (Jacob Knutson, Axios)

• WILDFIRES: California’s iconic Joshua trees are burning: A light rain fell on the Mojave National Preserve on Wednesday, where firefighters continued their nearly week-long battle against an unusual desert wildfire that is searing through Joshua trees and threatening to irrevocably alter the desert landscape. But in many ways, the damage has already been done. The fire is now the largest to burn through the eastern Mojave in recorded history, surpassing the 71,000-acre Hackberry complex fire of 2005 and singeing a delicate ecosystem already strained by invasive species and human-caused climate change. (Los Angeles Times)

• It’s midwinter, but it’s over 100 degrees in South America: Multiple spells of oddly hot weather have roasted the region in recent weeks. The latest spell early this week has become the most intense, pushing the mercury above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, while setting an August record for Chile. In Buenos Aires, where the average high on Aug. 1 is 58 degrees (14 Celsius), it surpassed 86 (30 Celsius) on Tuesday. (Ian Livingston, Washington Post)

• About 80% of humanity experienced unusually hot temperatures during July that were attributable in large part to human-caused climate change, a new report finds. (Andrew Freedman, Axios)

• A Desperate Push to Save Florida’s Coral: Get It Out of the Sea: Teams dedicated to ocean restoration are urgently moving samples to tanks on land as a marine heat wave devastates entire reefs. (Catrin Einhorn, The New York Times)

• New evidence of a previous Greenland meltdown suggests large parts of the ice sheet vanished at temperatures similar to today. (Bob Berwyn, Inside Climate News)

• UN Chief issued a stark warning on climate change: “The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived,” António Guterres declared in a news briefing, as scientists confirmed that July is set to become Earth’s hottest month on record. (Ajit Niranjan, The Guardian)

DOMESTIC

• U.S. averaging 2 mass shootings per day so far this year: The U.S. is currently on pace to meet or surpass the previous record for the most mass shootings in a year, which was set in 2021 with a total of 690, according to Gun Violence Archive (GVA) data. Currently, the running total is 419. Already, over 25,000 people have died from gun violence this year, and there are still 153 days left in 2023. (Jacob Knutson, Axios)

• Migrant Crisis Hits Breaking Point in New York: A large number of asylum-seekers have been outside of the city’s arrival intake center sleeping on the sidewalk as they wait to get assigned to a shelter for a bed to sleep in -- if there is one available. With an average of 300 to 500 people arriving by day, the city is taking new drastic steps, like giving unaccompanied migrants already under the city’s care a 60-day notice to find another roof over their heads "As of July 30, we have 107,900 people in our care, including 56,600 asylum seekers. Over 95,600 people have come through our system since last spring," NYC Deputy Mayor Williams-Isom says. (Mellisa Russo, NBC)

• FDA approves first pill for postpartum depression, a condition which can affect 1 in 7 women following childbirth. In trials, the treatment improved symptoms of depression in as early as three days. (Fortune Well)

• Reproductive rights groups sue Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall over prosecution threats for those who help women travel out of state to obtain an abortion. Another group of abortion rights activists sued Idaho Attorney General Raul Labrador over a state law that makes it a felony for an adult to help a minor obtain an abortion. (Stephanie Atkin, Pluribus News)

• Federal Appeals Court Further Limits Abortion Access on Guam: A federal appeals court ruled late Tuesday that women on the American territory of Guam who are seeking medication abortion must first have an in-person consultation with a doctor, which is likely to make access to the procedure on the remote island even more difficult. (David Chen, David Chen, The New York Times)

• Medicaid unwinding may hamper the nation's opioid response as Covid-era protections conclude: More than 700,000 people lost Medicaid coverage in April and experts estimate 15 million people could lose coverage through the process. (Daniel Payne and Megan Messerly, Politico)

• The Massachusetts Senate plans to take up gun safety legislation when they return in the fall, Senate President Karen Spilka said. A House version that would have banned firearms in most public places and clamped down on ghost guns stalled over a procedural dispute. (Chris Van Buskirk, Boston Herald)

• These Student Loan Borrowers Are Refusing to Pay Their Bills: Federal student loan bills return in October. But a growing chorus of borrowers say they simply can’t, or won't pay. “Millennials like me have gone through so many economic crises and watched these corporations and banks get bailed out — meanwhile, we can’t pay the student loans we were told we needed for success,” Acevedo said. “We're telling our elected representatives we're struggling, but they’re not doing anything to help.” (Paulina Cachero and Claire Ballentine, Bloomberg)

• Study drugs make healthy people worse at problem solving, not better. For more than six months Americans have been struggling to get their hands on medications like Adderall and Ritalin. Officially, these stimulant drugs are used to treat attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (adhd). Unofficially, the drugs are also popular with devotees of “nootropics”—chemicals that supposedly boost brainpower. Students and workers in industries from tech to finance take the medications in the hope they will improve concentration and ability to get things done. But a new paper suggests that this may be ill-advised. (The Economist)

• U.S. House probes suspected Chinese hacking of government emails: The U.S. House of Representatives Oversight Committee said on Wednesday it is opening an investigation into China's suspected involvement in recent breaches of Commerce and State department email systems. (Nikkei Asia)

• FBI Access to Spying Tool Should Be Restricted, Panel Advises: Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act allows the FBI to access a cache of data of intercepted emails, texts, etc, which is critical to prevent terrorism and cyberattacks. However, Section 702 will expire by the end of the year unless Congress renews it, but Democrats and Republicans have said the program, while valuable to national security, threatens Americans’ privacy. (Dustin Volz, WSJ)

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• U.S. economy adds 187,000 jobs in July, unemployment edged down to 3.5%: The numbers show employers still have healthy — though cooling — demand for workers, the latest sign of a resilient economy. (Courtenay Brown, Axios)

• Is Good News Finally Good News Again?: Economists had been wary of strong economic data, worried that it meant inflation might stay high. Now they are starting to embrace it. (Jeanna Smialek and Ben Casselman, The New York Times)

• THE ATLANTIC: How the Recession Doomers Got the U.S. Economy So Wrong. (Derek Thompson, The Atlantic)

• Fitch Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating: Fitch lowered the U.S. long-term rating to AA+ from its top mark of AAA. The downgrade — the second in America’s history — came two months after the United States narrowly avoided defaulting on its debt. Lawmakers spent weeks negotiating over whether the United States, which ran up against a cap on its ability to borrow money on Jan. 19, should be allowed to take on more debt to pay its bills. The ratings agency said debt-limit standoffs had ‘eroded confidence’ in the nation’s fiscal management. (Alan Rappeport and Joe Rennison, The New York Times)

• Manufacturing push collides with tight labor market: Who is going to do all this work? The tight labor market poses a challenge to what Axios' Neil Irwin calls the coming “manufacturing investment supercycle.” That's a broad term for all the investment going into U.S. heavy industry, triggered by pent-up demand and money from the Biden administration's signature legislation: the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the CHIPS and Science Act. (Emily Peck and Matt Phillips, Axios)

• BlackRock, MSCI Face Congressional Probes for Facilitating China Investments: Americans’ retirement funds are unwittingly fueling Chinese firms the U.S. has flagged over security and human-rights issues, lawmakers say. (Kate O’Keeffe and Corrie Driebusch, WSJ)

• Crypto Rules Delay Puts Billions in Tax Revenue at Risk: The Treasury Department may be losing around $28 billion in crypto tax cheats over a decade. They already missed its first deadline to implement a 2021 law in time for the current tax year, but now they may be too late for tax year 2024. (Richard Ruben and Paul Kiernan. WSJ)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• OPINION: The summer of U.S.-China reengagement can be a win for the entire world. (Sadek Wahba, The Hill)

• The Bank of England raised its main interest rate to a fresh 15-year high and indicated it would stay high for some time to bring down persistently high inflation — another potential blow for those seeing their rents and mortgages rise during a cost-of-living crisis. The widely anticipated quarter-percentage point increase, to 5.25%, was the central bank’s 14th hike in a row. (Pan Pylas, AP)

• Saudi Arabia to Extend Oil Production Cut by a Month: Saudi Arabia will extend its decision to cut oil production by one billion barrels a day till September which could put additional pressure on U.S. gasoline prices that already surged over the last month. The Biden Administration has been pressing Saudi production to remain high because oil prices at the global market are the major factor in determining U.S. gasoline prices. (Clifford Krauss, The New York Times)

• China replaces elite nuclear leadership in surprise military shake-up: China has revealed two new leaders of its People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force this week in a surprise shake-up that has raised questions about the inner workings at the top of the military branch overseeing the nation’s powerful arsenal of nuclear and ballistic missiles. (Brad Lendon et al., CNN)

• A court in Russia has extended Alexei Navalny’s prison sentence by 19 years, and sentenced him to a special regime with the harshest prison conditions in the country. (Andrew Roth, The Guardian)

• The U.S. is partially evacuating its embassy in Niger, after a military junta seized power in the west African nation last week and some neighbouring countries warned that they may use force unless constitutional order is restored. The state department on Wednesday ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel and family members, a move that may signal a deterioration of the security situation. It highlights the challenges facing Washington as it responds to the military takeover in a country that has been an important regional partner for the US. (Financial Times)

• China’s Tech Distress Grows as U.S. Chip Sanctions Bite: Washington’s restrictions on sale of advanced technology to Beijing appear to be working. (Dan Strumpf and Clarence Leong, WSJ)

• New Ultrasound Therapy Could Help Treat Alzheimer’s, Cancer, holding a key to a problem that has long challenged drug developers: getting medicines to hard-to-reach places to treat diseases like Alzheimer’s and cancer. (Denise Roland, WSJ)

• At least 42 people were killed and over 130 injured when a suicide bomber set off explosives at a political rally in Pakistan's northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Sunday, police and rescue officials said. The blast took place at a gathering of the conservative Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) party, known for its links to hardline political Islam, in the former tribal area of Bajaur, which borders Afghanistan. (Reuters)

• U.S. raises concerns over China's counter-espionage push: China is expanding its counter-espionage network by pressing their citizens to join counter espionage work, raising concerns in the U.S. that foreign companies in China could be punished for normal business. (Daphne Psaledakis and Humeyra Pamuk, Reuters)

• 4 separatist Bosnian Serb leaders are sanctioned by U.S.Treasury for undermining a 1995 peace deal: The United States imposed sanctions on four high ranking Bosnian Serb officials for undermining the peace deal that ended the Bosnian War. The officials in question drafted a law that the U.S. and other international officials say undermines the unity of Bosnia by ignoring the authority of the country’s constitutional court. (AP)

IMMIGRATION

• Appeals Court Lets Biden Asylum Policy Temporarily Stay in Place: A federal appeals court Thursday allowed the Biden administration to enforce its new asylum rules while litigation continues over the policy. It is the central pillar of President Biden’s post-Title 42 border enforcement efforts. (Alicia Caldwell, WSJ)

• The Pentagon is pulling 1,100 troops from the U.S.-Mexico border mission. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved the deployment of a total of 1,500 active duty troops for a temporary 90-day military presence surge at the border in May. At the time, illegal border crossings were swiftly escalating with concerns they’d go even higher after the restrictions ended but instead the numbers have fallen. The 1,100 troops will conclude their 90-day mission by Aug. 8; the remaining 400 will be extended through August 31, a defense official said on the condition of anonymity to discuss details ahead of an announcement. (Tara Copp and Rebecca Santana, AP)

• The number of migrants crossing the treacherous Darien Gap, a mountainous rainforest region that connects South and Central America, has broken a new record, according to immigration officials in Panama. (Karol Suarez and Tara John, CNN)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

• Russian warship damaged in Ukraine drone attack: A Ukrainian maritime drone slammed into a naval ship at a major Russian port on the Black Sea on Friday, an audacious early morning attack that damaged the vessel and dealt another blow to the Kremlin’s military and economic infrastructure far from the front lines of the war. (The New York Times)

• Tensions high on NATO’s border with Belarus after Wagner troops move closer: Poland will deploy more troops at the border with Belarus after it accused Minsk of violating its airspace, raising tensions between the NATO member and a key Kremlin ally in an increasingly volatile security landscape in Europe. (Sana Noor Haq et al., CNN)

• E.U. Official Accuses Russia of Using Grain as Geopolitical Tool as the U.N. Security Council meets to discuss global food security, the European Union’s top diplomat urged world leaders to condemn Russia’s termination of the Black Sea grain deal. “As the world deals with disrupted supplies and higher prices, Russia is now approaching vulnerable countries with bilateral offers of grain shipments at discounted prices, pretending to solve a problem it created itself,” Josep Borrell Fontelles, the top E.U. diplomat, wrote in a letter. (The New York Times)

• Ukraine looks to boost ammunition production: Ukraine’s need for ammunition has only grown more urgent as it pursues a counteroffensive in what is now the 18th month of war with Russia. Officials in Ukraine and across the Biden administration, NATO and the European Union are searching for new sources of ammunition to quickly deliver. One is in Ukraine itself. The country’s nascent weapons industry produced twice as many mortars and artillery rounds last month than it did for all of 2022. (The New York Times)

• Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a warning to Russia's invading forces Sunday after the Kremlin accused Kyiv of overnight drone attacks on Moscow. "Today is the 522nd day of the so-called 'special military operation,' which the Russian leadership expected to last for a week or two," Zelenskyy said in a televised address, according to a transcript. "Ukraine is getting stronger," he added. "Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia — to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process." Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Air Force said the drones were intended to impact Russians who felt Putin's invasion was distant, per the Kyiv Times. (Rebecca Falconer, Axios)

Week of July 24 - July 28, 2023

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE

• Vital Atlantic Ocean current could shut down as soon as 2025: A new study warns that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – is close to an irreversible tipping point that would severely disrupt the climate system. Other researchers say the exact timeline of collapse is uncertain, with the new evidence suggesting that a tipping point could occur sooner than previously thought. (Laura Paddinson, CNN)

• This summer is what climate change looks like, scientists say: Throughout the month of July, blistering heat and extreme weather swept across the globe, fueling wildfires across North America and Southern Europe – which a new study finds would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change (Zia Weise and Giovanna Coi, Politico)

• ‘Something weird is going on’: search for answers as Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows: Some scientists fear the ‘shocking’ shift is the beginning of a global heating-linked collapse of the ice that could have alarming knock-on effects.

•  (Graham Redfearn, The Guardian)

• Dangers worsen as a long heat wave grips Southwest without relent: For nearly a month, millions of people across the American Southwest have sizzled, sweated and sweltered under a heat wave that refuses to let up. Forecasters say the heat wave is being driven by a ridge of high pressure that has parked itself over the region, creating a pressure cooker of slowly sinking warm air. But some experts say it is a worrisome indication of a climate that has been radically altered by human behavior colliding with the onset of El Niño. (Los Angeles Times)

• ‘Unprecedented’ ocean temperatures recorded in the Florida Keys show triple digit readings, adding to previous warnings of warming waters in the southeast US. The growing frequency and intensity of severe weather – both on land and in oceans – is a symptom of the global, human-driven climate crisis that is fueling extremes, experts warn, with current heatwaves expected to persist through August. (Dani Anguiano The Guardian)

• G20 bloc fails to reach agreement on cutting fossil fuels. The Group of 20 member countries, the largest economies in the world, met in India for a four-day meeting without reaching consensus, reflecting divisions among the group’s membership on matters such as fossil fuels, energy, and the war in Ukraine. (The Guardian)

• Deadly Mediterranean wildfires ravage across Greece, Italy, and Algeria, as heatwave shows no let-up. (Laurence Peter and Bassam Bounenni, BBC)

• Wildfires rage across Italy as extreme heat ravages across the country, with temperatures reaching 47ºC (116ºF). “We have never seen anything like it,” a San Martino delle Scale resident told Italy’s Ansa news agency. “We were surrounded by fire. We could not go anywhere.” (Lorenzo Tondo and Angela Giuffrida, The Guardian)

DOMESTIC

• 'Culture war' consumes Congress as lawmakers confront spending deadline on a number of spending bills for 2024, with Republican provisions touching upon hot button culture and social issues. (Irie Sentner, Politico) 

• The Senate passed its annual defense bill, sets up clash with House over social issues: The House passed its own version of the bill – known as the National Defense Authorization Act – earlier this month after adopting a series of controversial amendments pushed by hardline conservatives. Now that the Senate has passed its NDAA bill, lawmakers will need to reconcile the Senate bill and the House bill by negotiating a compromise version that can pass both chambers. (Clare Foran, CNN)

• President Biden orders US to share evidence of Russian war crimes with international court: The decision is a shift in US policy toward the International Criminal Court and goes against the Pentagon’s recommendation. (Alexander Ward and Lara Seligman, Politico)

• Biden administration moves to tighten fuel economy rules: The proposal is designed to accelerate the country’s transition to all-electric passenger vehicles, one of the president’s signature efforts on climate change. (Coral Davenport, New York Times)

• Biden administration proposes new rules to mandate health insurers to cover mental health like other care, after administration officials accused insurers of failing to comply with a 2008 law that requires mental health care to be considered physical care.  (Ben Leonard, Politico)

• The next abortion rights battleground, as activists in Ohio have collected over 700,000 signatures for a November ballot initiative that would codify the right to an abortion in the state constitution. Meanwhile, Republicans have responded with their own ballot measure that would require 60 percent of the vote for a constitutional amendment to pass — a notable increase from the current simple majority requirement. (Catherine Kim, Politico)

• UPS reaches deal with Teamsters union, averting a strike: The deal was touted as a big win by the union. "UPS has put $30 billion in new money on the table as a direct result of these negotiations," Teamsters General President Sean O'Brien said in a statement. "We've changed the game. This contract sets a new standard in the labor movement and raises the bar for all workers." (Emily Peck, Axios)

• The Education Department has opened a civil rights investigation into Harvard University’s legacy admissions policy, inserting the federal government directly into a fierce national debate about wealth, privilege and race after the Supreme Court gutted the use of affirmative action in higher education. (Michael D. Shear and Anemona Hartocollis, The New York Times)

• U.S. Justice Dept. opens civil rights investigation of Memphis police: DOJ said it had begun a sweeping civil rights investigation into policing in Memphis, digging into allegations of pervasive problems with excessive force and unlawful stops of Black residents. (Rick Rojas, The New York Times)

• Arthur children’s book faces potential Florida ban over claim it ‘damaged souls.’ (The Guardian)

• US announces more than $300M weapons package for Taiwan, the first tranche in a total of $1 billion the U.S. has allotted for military aid to the island this year. (Lara Seligman, Politico)

• Diagnostic errors linked to nearly 800,000 deaths or cases of permanent disability in US each year, study estimates. (Deidre McPhillips, CNN)

• What We Know—and Don't Know—About UFOs After the Congressional Hearing. (Jeffrey Kluger, TIME)

POLITICS/ELECTIONS

• Trump hit with new charges in classified documents case, third defendant added. (Dan Mangan and Kevin Breuninger, CNBC)

• GOP field's Jan. 6 tightrope: “Leading GOP candidates have argued in recent days that Trump's actions on Jan. 6 were irresponsible but not criminal. Straddling that line won't make the race any closer — but it could backfire if special counsel Jack Smith unveils an indictment as damning as his last one.” (Zachary Basu, Axios)

• The GOP primary’s newest hot button issue: The issue of gender-affirming care, especially for those under 18, is front and center in the 2024 Republican primary. (Lucy Hodgman, Politico)

• Cornel West threat: “This is going to sneak up on people. I don’t know why alarm bells aren’t going off now, and they should be at a steady drumbeat from now until the election.,” David Axelrod on Cornel West’s third party presidential bid. (Gregory Krieg et al., CNN)

• Judge Maryellen Noreika puts Hunter Biden’s plea deal on hold to work out her legal and constitutional concerns. Under the deal, Biden would have pleaded guilty to two tax misdemeanors. (The New York Times)

• Rudolph Giuliani admits to making false statements about Georgia election officials. When employed by President Trump, Giuliani wrongfully asserted that two Georgia elections workers had mishandled ballots while counting votes in Atlanta during the 2020 presidential election. This was revealed in court papers as part of a defamation lawsuit of the two election workers brought against Giuliani in Federal District Court in Washington in December 2021. (The New York Times)  

• Hunter Biden judge says she can't accept plea deal in surprise turn: The judge presiding Hunter Biden’s tax charge case said she needs more time to review a plea deal between Hunter Biden and the prosecution, preventing the plea deal from going through. (Jack Queen, Reuters)

• DeSantis cuts additional campaign staff in effort to ‘streamline operations’: Governor DeSantis cut 38 positions which equated to about a third of his campaign's payroll. His campaign manager says this aggressive approach was to streamline their operations in hopes to defeat Joe Biden. (Kit Maher and Steve Contorno, CNN)

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• Economic growth in the US was stronger than expected in the second quarter of 2023, growing 2.4% on an annualized basis between April and June, according to preliminary figures released by the Department of Commerce. (Nicholas Megaw, Financial Times)

• Federal Reserve hikes interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, highest in 22 years, citing elevated inflation levels as rationale and leaving the door open for further rate increases. (Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin, Axios)

• IMF: ‘Global Economy on Track but Not Yet Out of the Woods.’ For the last year, the International Monetary Fund had a “distinctly dour” take on the global economy. In the latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF says while caution still remains, the world economy is proving to be more resilient. (Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin, Axios)

• Moody’s after overhaul law: Israel faces negative economic fallout, significant risk: Morgan Stanley cuts Israel sovereign credit to ‘dislike stance’; Citi cautions investors about ‘constitutional crisis’ scenario over legislation approved despite lack of consensus. (Sharon Wrobel, Times of Israel)

• Rural America is the new hotbed in the AI race as tech giants spend billions to turn farms into data centers. (Daniel Geiger, Insider)

• Elon Musk’s decision to rebrand Twitter as X could be complicated legally as Meta, Microsoft, and hundreds of other companies already have intellectual property rights to the letter. (Blake Brittain, Reuters)

• Why businesses can’t stop asking for tips: Tip requests have spread far beyond the restaurants and bars that have long relied on them to supplement employee wages. Juice shops, appliance-repair firms and even plant stores are among the service businesses now asking customers to hand over extra money to their workers. Consumers seeing tip prompts at every turn say they are overwhelmed—and that worker wages should be business owners’ responsibility, not theirs. (Rachel Wolfe, Wall Street Journal)

• Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints: Tesla employees had been directed to prevent any customer complaints about Tesla vehicle driving ranges from servicing their vehicles. This “Diversion Team” was meant to cancel as many range-related appointments as possible. These range issues were not because of defective parts, but because of Tesla overhyping the range of their vehicles. (Steve Stecklow and Norihiko Shirouzu, Reuters)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• ECONOMIST: China hits back against Western sanctions: The Communist Party is becoming less timid in its retaliation against American economic warfare. (The Economist)  

• UK accidentally sent military emails meant for US to Russian ally: British authorities have launched an investigation after officials mistakenly sent emails meant for U.S. military intelligence to the government in Mali, a Russian ally. (Claudia Chiappa, Politico)

• Europe targets Belarus with war sanctions plan: Sanctions seek to cut off flow of equipment via Belarus to Russia that could be used in Moscow’s war against Ukraine. (Sarah Anne Aarup et al., Politico)

• Egypt calls on Vladimir Putin to revive Black Sea grain deal: Egypt’s leader, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi urged Vladimir Putin to return to the Black Sea grain deal during a Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg marked by concerns about the global economic fallout from the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. (Andrew Roth, The Guardian)

• Israel’s parliament ratified the first bill of a judicial overhaul plan sought by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after “last-gasp compromise efforts collapsed and failed to ease a constitutional crisis convulsing the country for months.” This comes after thousands of protests demonstrated across the country against the bill that limits the Supreme Court’s ability to check governmental power. (Axios)

• Niger soldiers announce coup and president’s removal on national TV: Military leadership declares support for coup against President Mohamed Bazoum, even as Bazoum vowed to protect the country’s ‘hard-won’ democratic gains. (Peter Beaumont, The Guardian)

• WAPO: In Singapore, loud echoes of Beijing’s positions generate anxiety: President Xi Jinping wants to build influence among ethnic-Chinese communities in Southeast Asia, raising concerns that the Chinese Communist Party is stoking divided loyalties. (Shibani Mahtani and Amrita Chandradas, The Washington Post)

• $4.6 billion plant in South Africa will make ‘the fuel of the future’: A $4.6 billion plant in South Africa will produce ammonia for fertilizer through the process of Electrolysis which will be a completely green process requiring just water, air and energy. (Jacopo Prisco CNN)

• Astronomers discover never-before-seen two-faced star: Astronomers discovered a white dwarf star with two completely different faces: one side is made of hydrogen and the other made of helium. The nickname star Janus is given by researchers. (Ashley Strickland, CNN)

IMMIGRATION

• Federal judge blocks new Biden asylum policy: President Biden’s asylum policy was struck down by a federal judge in an attempt to manage the southern border. This rule disqualifies most people from applying for asylum if they crossed the US border without securing an appointment at an official port of entry or proving they sought legal protection in another country. (Miriam Jordan and Eileen Sullivan, The New York Times)

• DOJ is suing Texas after Governor Greg Abbott after Abott declined to remove floating border barrier on the Rio Grande: The lawsuit alleges the barrier was installed without necessary authorization from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and that the barrier obstructs navigation on the river. (Noah Alcala Bach, Texas Tribune)

• Fifth bus of asylum seekers arrives in Los Angeles from Texas: The bus was carrying 44 people hailing from Colombia, China, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela, including 14 children. (Maya Yang, The Guardian)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

• Russian forces strike residential building in Dnipro: Officials said the strike wounded at least three people and caused widespread damage. (The Guardian)

• Russia accuses Ukraine of 'terrorism' after two drone strikes, including near Moscow army HQ. (Andrew Osborn, Reuters)

• Russia launches new drone strikes on Kyiv and parts of central and northern Ukraine: Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military reported making small advances in parts of southern Ukraine and south of Bakhumut in the east. (Reuters)

• US intelligence report says China likely supplying tech for Russian military for the war in Ukraine, according to an unclassified intelligence report. (Kanishka Singh and Michael Martina, Reuters)

• After pulling out of an agreement that allowed for safe passages of vessels through the Black Sea, Russia threatened an alternative route for grain, attacking a grain hangar at Ukrainian port on Danube River that has served as a key point for transporting goods while the Black Sea remains blockaded. (Jenny Gross and Patricia Cohen, New York Times)

• US sends more weapons to Ukraine as the Biden administration announced up to $400 million in additional military aid to Ukraine. (Erick Schmitt, New York Times)

• Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy terminated the nation’s ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, after the ambassador asserted that Zelensky had used “unhealthy sarcasm” in remarks towards the British defense secretary. (NPR)

• Ukraine has recaptured 50% of the territory that Russia seized, Blinken says: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that while Ukraine has recaptured half the territory that Russia initially seized in its invasion, Kyiv faced "a very hard fight" to win back more. "These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough," he said, adding: "It will not play out over the next week or two. We're still looking, I think at several months." (Kanishka Singh and Raphael Satter, Reuters)

• US officials have condemned Russia’s decision last week to pull out of an agreement that allows Ukraine to export grain to other countries: Russia pulling out of the deal poses serious issues for other countries, especially those struggling with food insecurity. (NPR)

Week of July 17 - July 21, 2023

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE

• The Arctic: As glaciers retreat, methane-rich groundwater is bubbling to the surface, which may be warming the climate and accelerating the Arctic’s rapid decline. The island of Svalbard, about halfway between mainland Norway and the North Pole, is warming twice as fast as the rest of the Arctic, which itself is warming up to four and a half times faster than the rest of the planet. Scientists just discovered that the island’s retreating glaciers are creating a potentially significant climate feedback loop: When the ice disappears, groundwater that’s supersaturated with methane bubbles to the surface. “These numbers, I honestly thought that they were even wrong, but they cannot be wrong,” says Carolina Olid, who studies Arctic methane emissions at the University of Barcelona but wasn’t involved in the work. “Wow, they are really, really high.” (Wired)

• We're living through Earth’s hottest month on record. Climate scientists say global heat is driving extreme weather, as ocean warmth is ‘probably helping fuel what have been historic heat waves on land.” (Scott Dance and Veronica Penney, The Washington Post)

• Millions in US under warnings as record heat expected to continue next week. More than 100 million people were under extreme heat advisories as extreme heat grips the nation. Residents were warned to “take the heat seriously and avoid time outdoors” by the National Weather Service, which said it was “potentially deadly to anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.” (Mark Oliver et al., The Guardian) 

• The Heat Index reached 152°F in the Middle East – nearly the limit for what humans can handle. (Scott Dance, The Washington Post) 

• Another US city is sinking: a new study in Chicago finds that temperature increases are the cause of a phenomenon known as “underground climate change,” where land shifting could pose problems for building and infrastructure in the coming decades. (Jacopo Prisco, Live Science)

• Wildfires burn near Greece capital, forcing hundreds of residents to flee their homes. (Stelios Misinas and Lefteris Papadimas, Reuters)

• Syria struggles to contain wildfires as temperatures rise to 40 degrees C (104°) in parts of the country. (Reuters)

• Millions of homes and schools may have to eliminate lead dust under EPA plan. With UNICEF's estimation that 1.23 million children in the US have high blood lead levels. The EPA is taking one of its strongest measures yet and has proposed tougher standards on lead in paint in older homes and schools, potentially triggering removals in millions of buildings. (Timothy Puko, Washington Post)

DOMESTIC

• The U.S. has just endured the deadliest six months of mass killings since at least 2006. James Alan Fox, a criminology professor at Northeastern who has been tracking crime data for 45+ years, said, "We used to say there were two to three dozen a year. The fact that there's 28 in half a year is a staggering statistic." From Jan. 1 to June 30, the nation endured 28 mass killings (four or more killed, not counting the assailant). 27 of the 28 involved guns.  (Stephanie Dazio and Larry Fenn, AP)

• Senate Judiciary Committee approved legislation that would require the Supreme Court to adopt a code of conduct with enforceable rules and stronger disclosure requirements. (Jess Bravin, Wall Street Journal) 

• US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry visits China in efforts to restart climate taklks between the two countries. (Zack Colman, Politico)

• Former President Donald Trump faces a third indictment after target letter from DOJ listed potential charges against the former President. (Stephen Collinson, CNN)

• Op-Ed by TCG Advisors Tom Rogers and Susan Del Percio: Independents, our primary process, and the 2024 election. (Newsweek)

• Seven leading AI companies agreed to voluntary safeguards after meeting with President Biden at the White House. (Michael D. Shear et al., New York Times)

• Summer camps are incorporating academic and emotional recovery for young students seeing historically low test scores and a widespread mental health crisis. These programs can help recover some learning and development losses caused by isolation and remote schooling. (April Rubin, Axios)

• Dementia experts have hailed the latest landmark in the treatment of Alzheimer’s after Eli Lilly released trial results that showed its new drug significantly slowed memory loss and cognitive decline. (Financial Times)

• Scientists are beginning to understand how gender in sex chromosomes and hormones affect people's risk for certain diseases — and whether the biology behind those differences can be harnessed to improve treatments. Study after study has described the differences in the impact of disease between males and females. Researchers are starting to understand the molecular underpinnings of these differences. (Alison Snyder, Axios)

• Alzheimers: Doctors and scientists have long recognized certain diseases affect men and women differently, but that is rarely reflected in the dosage and design of drugs. A newly approved drug for Alzheimer's disease may be less effective for women — who are more likely to develop the disease over their lifetime — than men. Nearly two-thirds of people 65+ in the U.S. with Alzheimer's disease are women.  (Alison Snyder, Axios)

• The Illinois Supreme Court ruled that cash bail would end in Illinois on Sept. 18. The law will limit judges’ power to hold defendants in jail before being found guilty, representing a nationwide effort to reduce jail populations. However, this law angered many throughout the country, who claimed that this law would make the state more dangerous. (Mitch Smith New York Times)

• An Iowa judge temporarily blocked the state’s new ban on most abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy. Just days after Governor Kim Reynolds signed the measure into law. That means abortion is once again legal in Iowa up to 20 weeks of pregnancy while the courts assess the new law’s constitutionality. (The Guardian)  

• “A Florida state guard established by the rightwing governor, Ron DeSantis, under the guise of a civilian disaster relief force is instead being trained as an armed, combat-ready militia under his personal command, according to military veteran recruits who have quit the program.” (Richard Luscombe, The Guardian)

• The White House launches new office to prepare for and respond to potential pandemics. (Kanishka Singh, US News)

• “Several veterans resigned after an encampment last month having become concerned at the ‘militaristic’ training and ‘abuse’ one disabled veteran suffered at the hands of instructors.” (Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times)

• Centrists pan effort to ‘expunge’ Trump impeachment. Roughly a half-dozen swing district Republicans said Thursday they were skeptical — or even downright opposed — to any vote designed to symbolically rescind one or both of Trump’s impeachments.” (Jordain Carney et al., Politico) 

• OpenAI worries as advanced version of ChatGPT now has the ability to analyze images in extreme detail. In compliance with public concerns for privacy, OpenAI is considering the approach to regulate this feature by offering an opt-out for well-known people who don't want to be recognized. (Kashmir Hill, New York Times)

• House Approves FAA bill to ease air travel delays: With the surge in travel demand and a persistent labor shortage in aviation workers, Congress must pass a reauthorization measure of stopgap extension before Oct.1 to prevent shutdown of the US aviation system. Retirement age for pilots was extended to 67 from 65. (David Harrison, Wall Street Journal)

• Stanford president to resign following findings of manipulation in academic research: Stanford University President Marc Tessier-Lavigne will resign from his post effective on August 31st but remain on the Stanford faculty after a review by a panel of scientists concluded that research papers he contributed to contained “manipulation of research data. (Nadia Bidarian, CNN)

POLITICS/ELECTION

• “The 2024 election Is a fight over America’s way of life: GOP voters see a country corrupted by liberal ideals.” “The animating force in the Republican presidential primary, many voters and policy leaders say, is a feeling that American society — the government, the media, Hollywood, academia and big business — has been corrupted by liberal ideas about race, gender and other social matters. Democrats, in turn, feel that conservatives have used their political power in red states and in building a Supreme Court majority to undermine abortion rights and threaten decades of work to broaden equal rights for minority groups. That has turned the next race for the White House into an existential election, with voters on both sides fearing not just a loss of political influence but also the destruction of their way of life.” (Aaron Zitner and Simon J. Levien, Wall Street Journal)

• The Economist warns of Trump's "alarming" plans if returned to office: "Thousand-page policy documents set out ideas that were once outlandish in Republican circles have now become orthodox: finishing the border wall, raising tariffs on allies and competitors alike, making unfunded tax cuts permanent and ending automatic citizenship for anyone born in the United States." (Economist)

• “Tucker Carlson turns a Christian presidential forum Into a Putin showcase,”  Carlson was given the task of interviewing six Republican presidential hopefuls at the Family Leadership conference in Des Moines on Friday. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine became the dominant issue of debate, on a day when Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa used the event to sign a near-total abortion ban into law. In the hands of Mr. Carlson, the former Fox News host who was recently fired, Ukraine became the bad actor in the conflict, not Russia. The most heated exchange came when Mr. Carlson interviewed former Vice President Mike Pence. (Jonathan Weisman, New York Times)

• “No Labels’ possible third-party challenge for the presidency next year has drawn fire from liberals, centrists and even some members of Congress who support the group’s principles but fear that their efforts … could greatly damage President Biden’s re-election campaign and hand the White House back to Donald J. Trump.” “But at an event on Monday, the group will formally release what it calls a ‘common sense’ proposal for a centrist White House, in hopes of shifting the conversation from the politics of its potential presidential bid to the actual policies that it believes can unite the country and temper the partisanship of the major party nominees. If the ideas do not take political flight, or if one or both of the parties adopt many of the proposals the group’s leaders say no challenge will be necessary.” (Jonathan Weisman and Luke Broadwater, New York Times)

• “The story of Gretchen Whitmer’s political ascent is the story of the building of a new Democratic coalition, but it’s also about the sudden transformation and seeming collapse of the Republican Party in Michigan.” How did a state that Donald Trump won in 2016 turn left so dramatically, leading to an anti-G.O.P. environment in which, as one former Party official puts it, “it could be ten years or more until we’re competitive” again.” (Benjamin Wallace-Wells, The New Yorker)

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• Economists are cutting back their recession expectations: “Easing inflation, a still-strong labor market and economic resilience led business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal to lower the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 54% from 61% in the prior two surveys... It reflects the fact that the economy has kept growing even as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates and inflation declined. They still expect GDP to eventually contract, but later, and by less, than previously.” (Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros, Wall Street Journal)

• All regions of the U.S. saw sharp drops in inflation in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. New England now has the lowest annual inflation rate for any region in the past two years — just under 2%. The South and Mountain states are holding onto some of the highest inflation rates — 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively. (Bloomberg)

• Biden continues to get low marks on the economy: A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey found that just 37% of respondents approved of President Biden’s handling of the economy, while 58% disapproved. (Christina Wilkie, CNBC)

• “Stocks Extend Winning Streak as Bank Earnings Spur Optimism." (Jack Pitcher, Wall Street Journal)

• BIG THINK: “America’s self-described middle class amounts to 90 percent of the population.”  “America’s self-described middle class amounts to 90 percent of the population. Because people tend to live in communities with people much like themselves, they may consider themselves about average”…But Rose has a different measure which is far more accurate. “By 2019, the three lowest classes—PNP, LMC and CMC—controlled just 28 percent of total income instead of the 71 percent they did in 1979. In contrast, by 2019 those in the UMC received over half of all income and the UMC/Rich combination controlled about 72 percent of all income.” (Stephen Rose, The Liberal Patriot). 

• Labor strife across the country is continuing to intensify as UPS and the Teamsters union are on the precipice of what could be an economically devastating strike as soon as August. (Lisa Baertlein, Reuters)

• Ford cuts price of F-150 lightning electric truck by Up to $10,000. (Nora Eckert, Wall Street Journal)

• Advertisers warily embrace A.I.: An event last week for a "A.I for marketers" highlighted the love-hate relationship the advertising industry has with AI. Copywriters expressed concerns and skepticism about chatbot's capabilities while start-up founders preach AI tools for automating the creative process. (Tiffany Hsu and Yiwen Lu, New York Times)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• BIG THINK: David Brooks on the threat of A.I. Douglas Hofstadter says: “It’s a very traumatic experience when some of your most core beliefs about the world start collapsing. And especially when you think that human beings are soon going to be eclipsed.” (David Brooks, Op-Ed, New York Times)

• U.S. Ambassador to China hacked in spy operation: “Hackers linked to Beijing accessed the email account of the U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, in an attack that is believed to have compromised at least hundreds of thousands of individual U.S. government emails.” (Dustin Volz and Warren P. Strobel, Wall Street Journal)

• US soldier believed to be detained by North Korea after crossing border: An US soldier was detained during a Joint Security tour after crossing the demarcation line that separated North and South Korea. UNC believes he is still currently under custody in Democratic People's Republic of Korea and they are working with KPA counterparts to resolve this incident. (Brad Lendon, CNN)

• A nuclear capable US Navy submarine has made a port call in South Korea for the first time in decades. This would then mean that each US ballistic missile submarine could be carrying approximately 80 nuclear warheads. The port call comes after an agreement between Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol , after their meeting in Washington in April. (Brad Lendon et al., CNN)

• Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) on whether NATO’s expansion to Asia in the decades to come is inevitable, on “Meet the Press”: “I think it is … Our Senate delegation had the opportunity to meet with those leaders [of Japan, Australia and South Korea], and I think that was a really strong signal with regard to NATO.” Dan Sullivan gives President Biden credit for NATO’s expansion to Finland and Sweden: “I give President Biden credit for keeping the unity of NATO, revitalizing NATO.” (Meet the Press)

• Henry Kissinger makes surprise visit to China, meets top diplomat: Kissinger, on an unannounced visit to Beijing, met with Chinese officials to promote better bilateral ties and military communications. However, this visit was under his own volition, not acting on behalf of the United States government. (Anna Fifeld, The Washington Post)

IMMIGRATION

• “Waves of migrants taking dangerous, unauthorized passages to Europe and the U.S. are fueling a new rush of anti-immigrant policies and deepening political divisions in several wealthy countries. Some 2.9 million new asylum applications were submitted last year — more than any year since at least 2000, according to the UN Refugee Agency. 40% of the new applications were made by people fleeing Latin America and the Caribbean, especially Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.   In the U.S., almost every 2024 Republican presidential candidate has embraced a tough stance on border security and migrants, reflecting polls that suggest most Americans want less immigration. Large numbers of illegal crossings at the southwest border led President Biden to embrace strict immigration policies.  (Stef Kight, Axios)

• There’s also been a dramatic surge in Europe, driven by migrants from Syria, northern Africa, Iraq, Turkey and elsewhere.  In Europe, far-right politicians in Poland, Italy, Hungary, Spain and beyond have demanded that the EU tighten its immigration policies. The Netherlands' government collapsed last weekend amid disagreements over new restrictions on refugees and asylum seekers. In the U.K., Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is embracing a “stop the boats” campaign, echoing Australia’s crackdown on migrants and asylum seekers who try to reach its shores by boat. (Stef Kight, Axios)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

• Russia has a stockpile of cluster munitions and will consider using them against Ukraine “if they are used against us,” President Vladimir Putin said. Putin’s comments come just days after Ukraine received delivery of American-made cluster munitions, though a top Ukrainian military official said they had not yet been used. (Uliana Pavlova and Joshua Berlinger, CNN) 

• "Russia is poised to end its cooperation at the United Nations in key humanitarian areas as the Kremlin faces a difficult fight in Ukraine and is eager to shore up support at home amid recent domestic instability, Western officials said." (Jared Malsin and William Mauldin The Wall Street Journal)

• “Prigozhin's rebellion undermined Putin's standing among Russian elite, officials say.” (Olivia Gazis, CBS)

• Russia warned Ukraine against shipping grain across the Black Sea. This came after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for international support to continue shipments despite Russian withdrawal from a wartime agreement. President Zelensky said in an overnight speech that he had written to the secretary general of the UN, Antonio Guterres, and the Turkish President and proposed that Ukraine should continue to ship its grain, claiming the exports are “necessary for everyone in the world.” (New York Times)

Week of July 10 - July 14, 2023

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE

• The world’s oceans are changing color…and “human-induced climate change is likely the driver”: In a new study, Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the National Oceanography Center in the UK reported that over 56 percent of the world’s oceans have changed color over the last twenty years–a phenomenon that cannot be explained by natural variability alone. (Jennifer Chu, MIT News)

• Southwest US faces record-breaking heat, with heat conditions expected to intensify: Over the last week, parts of the country have sweltered through extreme heat, as a heat dome has settled over the desert Southwest. (Andrew Freedman. Axios)

• Historic flooding ravages across New England: Torrential rainfall hit parts of New England, dropping more than a month’s worth of precipitation across the region. The heavy rain trapped dozens of people. caused one fatality, and left widespread damage in its wake. (Niha Masih, Scott Dance, and Tim Craig, Washington Post)

• Extreme heat is pushing us toward grim new record: The U.S. is poised for record-high consumption of natural gas as extreme heat sends demand for air conditioning skyrocketing. “This is an interesting time to monitor the United States’ electricity mix,” U.S. Energy Information Administration administrator said. (Alexander C. Kaufman, HuffPost)

• Saharan dust moves across the Atlantic: A mixture of sand and dust from the Sahara desert of North Africa is headed towards the southeastern region of the US, with the National Weather Service warning that the dust may lower air quality. (Giulia Carbonaro, Newsweek)

• ‘Climate disasters daily? Welcome to the ‘new normal.'" (David Gelles, NYT)

• Italy: A blistering and deadly heat wave in Italy this week could break records, with temperatures predicted to soar past 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) in some parts of the country: The Italian Meteorological Society has named the heat wave Cerberus after the three-headed monster that features in Dante’s Inferno as a guard to the gates of hell. “The earth has a high fever and Italy is feeling it firsthand,” Luca Mercalli, head of the Italian Meteorological Society. (Barbie Latza Nadeau and Laura Paddison, CNN)

• The hottest places on Earth: Death Valley, California is known for having “‘the highest air temperature on the planet": In 1913, the Furnace Creek area reached 134.1 degrees Fahrenheit (56.7 degrees Celsius) air temperature. In 2021, the Lut Desert in Iran and the Sonoran Desert along the U.S.-Mexico both recorded surface temperatures of 177.4 degree Fahrenheit, or 80.8 degree Celsius. (Olivia Munson, USA Today)

Domestic

• FDA approves the first over-the-counter birth control pill in the U.S.: It’s the first time a nonprescription daily oral contraceptive will be available for millions across the country. (Carma Hassan, CNN)

• Abortion restrictions: House passes defense bill “following a contentious debate and the adoption of controversial amendments that touched on hot-button social issues”: One of the most high profile amendments “would ban the secretary of defense from paying for or reimbursing service members for abortion-related expenses.” (Clare Foran and Haley Talbot, CNN)

• Biden administration announces plan to forgive $39 billion in student loan forgiveness: The plan will forgive federal student loans for borrowers enrolled in income-driven repayment plans, allowing forgiveness after a certain number of monthly payments. (Susan Svrluga, The Washington Post)

• One Senator single-handedly blocking hundreds of nominees for top military positions: Senator Tommy Tuberville is holding up hundreds of Defense Department appointments in protest of a new Pentagon policy that offers time off and travel reimbursement to service members who need to go out of state for abortions. (Karoun Demirjian, NYT) 

• Major branch of the U.S. military without a Senate-confirmed successor in place: For the first time in more than a century, the U.S. Marine Corps has no Senate-confirmed leader. (Paul McLeary, Politico)

• China-based hackers breached U.S. government email accounts in an apparent spying campaign, Microsoft and White House say: U.S. officials and Microsoft have been scrambling in recent weeks to assess the impact of the hack while China has denied the allegations.  (Sean Lyngaas, CNN)

• The case that could be Fox’s next Dominion: Tucker Carlson, past TCG Speaker, promoted a conspiracy theory on his since-canceled Fox News program that an Arizona man working as a covert government agent incited the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol to sabotage and discredit former President Trump and his political movement. First Amendment experts say the accused has a viable case for defamation. (Jeremy W. Peters, NYT)

• Republican lawmakers in Iowa passed a bill Tuesday that would ban most abortions in the state as early as six weeks into pregnancy: The bill now heads to the desk of Gov. Kim Reynolds for her signature. According to the bill, physicians will be prohibited from providing most abortions after early cardiac activity can be detected in a fetus or embryo, commonly as early as six weeks into pregnancy — before many women know they are pregnant. (Jack Forrest, TIME)

• Biden’s pick for Joint Chiefs faces Senate confirmation test: If the nomination for Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. advances, he will join Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and mark the first time that both jobs are held by black men. Biden considered Brown to be a seasoned tactician who understands the strategic challenges the US faces, he also advocated to modernize the service's fleet and sought to place an emphasis on racial justice. (Dan Lamothe, The Washington Post)

• Racism underlies disparities in maternal mortality in Americas, UN report says: Racism is likely the cause of high rates of pregnancy-related deaths amongst Black people in America. This racism manifests through verbal and physical abuse from healthcare providers, denial of quality care, and refusal of pain relief. The source of this racism lies in medical education, policy, and delivery. (Nancy Lapid, Reuters)

• How America’s push for the atomic bomb spawned enduring radioactive waste problems in St. Louis: St. Louis and its surrounding areas are still dealing with the aftermath of atomic waste storage by negligent federal officials and nuclear waste companies. Adults who played in a contaminated river as children have had a higher risk for cancer, and schools have been closed due to concern over radioactivity, and workers who worked near mismanaged nuclear waste sites developed cancer. (Michael Phillis and Jim Salter, Associated Press)

• Supreme Court Justices’ campus appearances raise ethical issues: Hosts worked with the prominent conservative lawyer Ken Starr to create a guest list for a dinner at the home of a wealthy Texas businessman, hoping an audience with [Clarence] Thomas would be a reward for college patrons and an inducement to prospective donors. (Scott Jaschik, Inside Higher Ed)

• Trump lawyers seek indefinite postponement of documents trial: Trump's lawyers asked to indefinitely postpone his trials on charges of illegally retained classified documents. If Trump makes it to the last legs of a presidential campaign, there could be complications of a sort never presented to a court before. (Alan Feuer and Maggie Haberman, NYT)  

• Tens of thousands of Hollywood actors are officially on strike, creating tremendous uncertainty for the entertainment industry: “While some films are already complete and set to hit theaters soon — like "Barbie" — many other movies and TV shows in the production stage will come to a screeching halt. That means there will likely be a shortage of blockbusters in theaters next summer unless a solution can be reached in the near term.” (Chris Isidore, CNN)

• “As Republican lawmakers have pushed restrictions on abortions in recent months, Democratic-led states have responded by passing so-called shield laws to protect people who undergo the procedure against the possibility they could one-day face prosecution.” (Sydney Kashiwagi, CNN)

• Popular artificial sweetener, Aspartame, is a possible cancer cause, WHO says: The World Health Organization said more research needs to be done on one of the most commonly used artificial sweeteners around the globe. (Jen Christensen, CNN)

• Supreme Court justices and donors mingle at campus visits. These documents show the ethical dilemmas: Supreme Court justices have met at numerous public colleges and universities, putting them at risk of being biased by the donors of said colleges and universities. Additionally, these visits have used the prestige of their positions for partisan activities, advocated for personal interests, and held speaking events with politicians.  (Brian Slodysko and Eric Tucker, Associated Press)

• Florida Republican Governor and 2024 presidential contender Ron DeSantis quietly rejected hundreds of millions of dollars in federal energy funding: As the Biden administration touts the benefits of its marquee climate law on the campaign trail in battleground states,” ….”.The funding, totaling about $377 million, included hundreds of millions of dollars for energy-efficiency rebates and electrification as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as money from the bipartisan infrastructure legislation that became law in 2021.” (Ari Natter, Bloomberg)

Politics/elections

• NY ordered to redistrict House maps: Dems could claw back 6 congressional seats. A New York court ordered new congressional maps be redrawn ahead of the 2024 midterms, siding with Democrats salivating at the chance to overturn several embarrassing losses last November. (Bernadette Hogan and Priscilla DeGregory, NY Post) 

• Former President Donald Trump appears to have earned “roughly” $1 billion in his post-presidential life, according to new financial disclosures: The latest filings show Trump received multimillion-dollar speaking engagement deals since he left office, including one worth $2.5 million to provide commentary at a boxing match. (Fredreka Schouten et al., CNN)

• Trump maintains national lead among Republican primary voters: According to the latest Morning Consult tracking poll Trump leads Ron DeSantis 56% to 17% with only Vivek Ramaswamy (8%) and Mike Pence (7%) doing better than three percent support among the other contenders. (Taegan Goddard, Political Wire)

• Young voters will once again prove decisive: In 2020, Joe Biden scored a narrow Electoral College victory with a decisive assist from young voters. Biden faces little risk of losing young Americans to Trump, who is far less popular among Gen Z and millennial voters. But can the president harness their anger to turn out and push him over the top? Or will their lack of perceived progress cause them to stay home, making way for a Trump victory next year? (Taegan Goddard, Political Wire)

• “This is a political rather than a legal struggle,” says past TCG Speaker and Harvard constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe on the Democrat’s efforts to revive the Equal Rights Amendment: In the wake of the Dobbs decision, House Democrats look to use a creative legal theory to ratify the long stalled amendment but also to highlight the GOP’s opposition to widely popular social issues as the Republican majority is unlikely to allow the measure to pass. (Annie Carnie, NYT)

• U.S. Department of Justice says it no longer deems Donald Trump immune from E. Jean Carroll $10 million defamation lawsuit: The change in course comes after the DOJ previously certified that Trump was acting within the scope of his office and employment as president. (Jonathan Stempel, Reuters)

Economy/business

• Inflation drops to 3 percent, the lowest point in more than two years in the U.S. (Christopher Rugaber, Associated Press in PBS)

• Is America’s inflationary fever breaking? Its labor market remains too hot for comfort. The unrounded month-on-month increase in America’s core inflation (minus volatile food and energy costs) in June was just 0.158%. (The Economist)

• Mexico is now the top U.S. trade partner: The milestone demonstrates a shift in global economic relationships, reflecting Mexico’s rise in manufacturing and declining US-China relations over the last several years. This comes as the Biden administration is pushing to improve relations with China. (Emily Peck, Axios)

• Threads app reaches 100m sign-ups in less than five days: Since its launch last week, Mark Zuckerberg’s platform has grown rapidly, with Twitter owner Elon Musk claiming the app is a ‘copycat’ app. (Dan Milmo, The Guardian)

• Federal Reserve top regulatory official outlines plan for big-bank regulatory changes: Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr was met with criticism after laying out a plan to pursue regulatory initiatives that would increase capital requirements for banks in the wake of recent bank failures. (Jeanna Smialek et al., NYT)

• Americans struggling to pay the rent: A record number of American renters are spending at least one-third of their income on rents due to the growth of so-called "luxury" buildings that have replaced less expensive options, according to The State of the Nation's Housing 2023, published by Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. In the last two decades, the share of construction for high-priced apartments — known as Class A — grew faster than more affordable ones. (Rebecca Chen, Yahoo.finance)

• Threats of a strike heating up before UAW begins negotiations with automakers: Wages, pensions, and healthcare–the United Auto Workers union now has its sights on securing a foothold in battery plants that will manufacture electric vehicles, in order to secure representation in the industry’s jobs of the future. (Tom Kirsher, Associated Press)

• Microsoft can now close its $75 billion buy of Activision Blizzard, judge rules: But it is not yet accepted by policymakers around the world. Antitrust authorities claim this mega deal would give Microsoft an unfair edge, potentially hurting its rivals in the cloud-gaming market. (Sarah E. Needleman and Dave Michaels, WSJ).

International/world

• NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania concludes with new ambitions, cleared path for Sweden's membership, and long-term bilateral security commitments for Ukraine to build up its defenses. (Steven Erlanger, NYT)

• Immigration backlash spreads around the world as the collapse of the Netherlands government is the latest sign of discord as immigration surges to record levels: Record immigration to affluent countries is sparking bigger backlashes across the world, boosting populist parties and putting pressure on governments to tighten policies to stem the migration wave. (Tom Fairless, WSJ)

• Turkish President Erdoğan agrees to back Sweden’s NATO bid: After Turkey’s veto previously prevented Sweden from joining the alliance as its 32nd member. The agreement was reached in the final hours before a NATO summit in the Lithuanian capital, allowing NATO to enter its annual summit, projecting unity in the face of Russian aggression. (Jared Malsin, WSJ)

• After a visit to China, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says despite ‘significant agreements,’ the US and China both have a desire to ‘stabilize’ the relationship. (Brad Lendon and Yoonjung Seo, US News)

• North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile that flew for more than 70 minutes, Japan's Defense Ministry said, marking a potential new round of confrontation with the US and its allies: The launch follows several other recent weapons tests by North Korea, which have raised alarms among international observers and experts as the country ramps up its efforts to develop weapons capable of potentially striking major US cities. (Brad Lendon and Yoonjung Seo TIME)  

• North Korea threatens to shoot down U.S. spy planes: North Korea accused US spy planes of violating its air space and threatened to shoot them down, ramping up tensions just before NATO leaders meet this week. (Sangmi Cha, Bloomberg)

• Family of Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Nathan Law taken in for questioning by police: A sweeping law was imposed by Beijing on Hong Kong in 2020 to criminalize secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign powers and carries a maximum punishment of life imprisonment. Family members of an exiled pro-democracy activist, Nathan Law, were taken away by the HK police for questioning. (CNN)

• Senators offer a bill to block any U.S. president from leaving NATO: A renewed effort to block any U.S. president from leaving NATO was pushed for by a bipartisan group of senators. This bill has been introduced repeatedly over the past few years. While it has not yet passed the Senate, the backdrop of Ukraine’s war with Russia and new countries joining NATO should give stronger support for the bill. (Patricia Zengerle, Reuters)

• Rights group urges probe into Darfur atrocities by Sudanese paramilitary forces battling the army: The ICC was pressed by the Human Rights Watch to investigate atrocities in Darfur, such as summary executions of tribesmen by Sudanese paramilitary and Arab militias. (Samy Magdy, Associated Press)

ukraine/russia

• President Biden and NATO allies offer continued support for Ukraine; Ukraine will ‘no doubt’ join NATO when war with Russia ends, U.S. defense secretary told CNN.  (Rob Picheta and Zahid Mahmood, CNN)

• Frontline videos from soldiers offer a grim, close-up view of Kyiv's counteroffensive: While there is concern of the videos providing intelligence to Russian forces, the troops providing the videos have said it could boost support while providing little intelligence if selected carefully. (Dan Peleschuk, Reuters)

• “Ukrainian troops firing a British-supplied Storm Shadow missile have hit a Russian barracks in occupied territory, reportedly killing the most senior general yet to die in the conflict….“Russian social media accounts confirmed the death of Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, which had been claimed by the Ukrainian authorities earlier in the day.” (Richard Spencer, The Times of London)

• Russian general says top military brass betrayed soldiers fighting in Ukraine: A Russian general claimed that he was dismissed after telling the top military brass how bad the war in Ukraine was going. He further claimed that his men were stabbed in the back by the failings of Russia’s top generals. If public criticism from a Russian general is authentic, it could signal further discontent within the Russian army. (Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters)

• Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin’s commanders met Putin after short-lived mutiny, pledged loyalty: Prigozhin and his commanders met with Putin and swore loyalty to Russia in the latest twist of the aftermath of Wagner’s mutiny. People familiar with Putin have stated that Prigozhin has emerged victorious from the mutiny, as he has escaped punishment for his mutiny and Wagner forces are still needed in Ukraine. (Associated Press)

• Kremlin says Wagner private mercenary group was never a legal entity: “The Kremlin says that the Wagner private mercenary group, which led a failed insurrection against Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, was never a legal entity and its legal status needs further consideration. "Such a legal entity as PMC Wagner does not exist and never existed. This is a legal issue that needs to be explored," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated. Peskov refused to disclose any further details on the meeting between Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin, which reportedly took place several days after the aborted rebellion in June. (Uliana Pavlova, CNN)

• There may be a significant obstacle in the way of Biden’s promise of additional military and humanitarian funding to Ukraine: A growing number of Republicans in Congress have balked at the billions of taxpayer dollars the U.S. has already sent to boost Ukraine’s war efforts against Russia, and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said that Ukraine should not receive a “blank check.” (Nik Popli, TIME)

• An investigation by the Associated Press has found that thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been locked up in prisons across Russia and its occupied territories: These civilians have endured torture, psychological abuse, and slave labor under Russian administration. (Lori Hinnant et al., Associated Press)

• Desperate Ukrainians who reside in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory have been taking increasingly long journeys to return to Ukraine: These Ukrainians have reported constant shelling and destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and have given first-hand accounts of life under Russian occupation, describing “everything… covered in mud. (Samya Kullab and Hanna Arhirova, Associated Press)

Week of July 3 - July 8, 2023

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• Mid-year assessment of the US Economy: As we pass the half-way point of the year, the state of the economy is not as doom and gloom as some might have predicted for 2023. Instead, a gradual rebalancing with limited pains has been the tale of the last six months as we look ahead for what’s to come in the second half of the year. (Neil Irwin, Axios)

• Job quitting cooled down significantly compared to the pandemic, another great sign that the labor market is stabilizing as the Fed raises interest rates: Hiring followed the same trend as employers added an average of 314,000 jobs each month through May. On top of all, some employers added employee compensations and benefits, resulting in much lower turnover rate. (Austen Hufford and Gwynn Guilford, Wall Street Journal)

• Mark Zuckerberg vs. Elon Musk – Forget about the cage match: Zuck plans to force Musk into submission with a new Twitter rival called “Threads” that just appeared in Apple’s app store and is set for release this Thursday: Threads will add Twitter-like functionality to your Instagram account, and Meta (Facebook and Instagram’s parent company) is seizing on the continued chaos and dysfunction at Twitter to boost the product. A top Meta executive recently declared that Threads will be a “sanely run” competitor. (Alex Heath, The Verge)

• WSJ: “Mark Zuckerberg Looks to Deliver Hit to Elon Musk With Upcoming Twitter Clone Named Threads”: Most Twitter alternatives have struggled to take off, but this one looks more promising for several reasons: (1) Instagram can leverage its 2 billion monthly users (Twitter has some 264 million), (2) Instagram has a history of copying key features from rivals that quickly become addictive (its “Stories” feature was ripped off from Snapchat), and (3) with the ongoing failure of Zuck’s bet on the metaverse, he is hungry for a win.

• Taylor Swift is bringing in ticket sales of more than $13 million a night on the road — putting her on a track to have the highest-grossing tour in music history: Swift is on pace to gross more than $1 billion, something no artist has ever done. (Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg) 

ENVIRONMENT/CLIMATE CHANGE

• World’s hottest day since records began: The average global temperature on Tuesday, July 4 soared to 17.18C (62.9F) after surpassing Monday's record-breaking temperature of 17.01C. (Damien Gayle, The Guardian)

• A link has been found between the depletion of Earth’s aquifers and increasing changes in our planet’s rotation: Scientists at the University of Seoul found evidence that the over-draining of aquifers for fresh water, along with the melting of the polar ice caps, have disrupted Earth’s balance and caused a wobble in its axis. (Raymond Zhong, New York Times)

• The UK experienced its hottest June on record: The Meteorological Office reported that the average mean temperature for the month of June was the highest since records began in 1884. Scientists found that the likelihood of record-breaking heat had at least doubled since 1940, with the Met Office stating that the June heatwave has a ‘fingerprint of climate change.’ (PA Media, The Guardian)

• Millions across the US brace for extreme heat conditions: On Monday, 36 million people were under heat advisories, particularly across the southern and western regions of the US. Intense heat continues to grip various parts of the country after cities face the aftermath of last week's heavy rain and flooding. (Gloria Oladipo, The Guardian)

• Advocates from across the US rally for reform on coal ash disposal: More than 100 coal ash sites–a byproduct of burning coal for electricity–sit within two miles of the Great Lakes, a drinking water source for 30 million people. Environmental advocates and community members from 21 states and Puerto Rico called on the EPA for stricter regulations on disposal. (Aydali Campa, Inside Climate News)

• Should poor nations pay for warming caused by developed nations?: Developed countries have been disproportionately responsible for rising global temperatures and have more capacity to respond to them. Poor countries lack the resources to invest in emissions reductions or climate adaptation measures. Yet, relative to the size of their economies, they face the biggest costs. (The Economist)

POLITICS/ELECTIONS

• US gets even more polarized: “Americans are segregating by their politics at a rapid clip, helping fuel the greatest divide between the states in modern history”: The split has resulted in states moving swiftly to the political left or right, adopting “diametrically opposed laws on some of the hottest issues of the day.” (Nicholas Riccardi, AP News)

• The moms who started the school board wars are now presidential kingmakers: Moms for Liberty have taken over school boards, banned books and made life hell for some educators. And yet Republican presidential candidates are longing for their support. (Liz Skalka, HuffPost) 

• History and recent polling suggest a third-party candidate has little chance of winning and could tip the election to Trump: A No Labels candidate could swing the race in critical states or help ensure no candidate gets to 270 electoral votes, which would let state delegations in the House pick the winner, likely favoring the GOP. No Labels—which by law doesn’t have to publicly name its donors—says it will evaluate its general election-chances after Super Tuesday primary voting in March. If it determines its “unity ticket” has an Electoral College path to victory, it will reveal its presidential and vice presidential picks at an April convention in Dallas. (Julie Bykowicz, Wall Street Journal)

• No Labels, the mysteriously financed group that could upend a Biden-Trump rematch: The centrist group is laying the groundwork to run an alternative candidate if the 2024 presidential race becomes a Donald Trump–Joe Biden rematch. Many political strategists have their own label for it: spoiler. (Julie Bykowicz, Wall Street Journal)

• The Secret Service is investigating how cocaine ended up in the White House: After testing, the substance was deemed to be cocaine hydrochloride and prompted an investigation. (Katie Rogers, New York Times)

DOMESTIC

• Biden administration to change course on student loans in the wake of Supreme Court ruling: After a Supreme Court decision to block more than $400 billion in student debt relief, the administration says its backup plan will at least help alleviate pressure for borrowers, as repayment approaches this October. (The Hill)

• Teamsters union prepares to go into ‘high gear’ after talks with UPS comes to a halt: Representatives for the union have accused the shipping giant of prematurely exiting negotiations early, while UPS says the union stopped negotiating, noting that there is a still a few weeks before the current contract is set to expire on July 31. (Aaron Gregg, Washington Post)

• State revenues are now weakening: “Fueled by surging revenues, states have been slashing taxes for individuals and businesses for the past three years,” “But the party is expected to come to an end in the coming fiscal year, which started on Saturday in 46 states. Revenue is projected to decline by 0.7% in fiscal 2024, based on forecasts used in governors’ budgets, after an estimated 0.3% dip this fiscal year, according to a recently released National Association of State Budget Officers survey.”“This reversal comes after double-digit percentage increases for the prior two fiscal years. It reflects the impact of slower economic growth, a weaker stock market and a slew of recent tax cuts.” (Tami Luhby, CNN)

• Harvard faces civil rights complaint filed by Black and Latino group who say the University's legacy admissions, which give priority to alumni students, favors white students: The complaint comes just days after the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action. (The Harvard Crimson)

• ECONOMIST: Why affirmative action in American universities had to go (and why what comes after could be better): “Affirmative action rested on contorted constitutional logic. It was also unpopular outside progressive circles. Worst of all, it didn’t work. America’s best universities have never been representative, even with race-based affirmative action. The very same universities favour the children of alumni and donors—a shadow, unjustifiable affirmative-action scheme for the white and wealthy hidden behind the prominent one for black and Hispanic applicants (many of whom were wealthy themselves)." (The Economist)

• The number of migrants crossing the U.S. southern border is down. Officials say the lull after nearly two years of increased crossings is not going to last. (Eileen Sullivan, New York Times)

SCOTUS

• Man cited in Supreme Court LGBTQ rights case says he was never involved: It came as a surprise that a request he appeared to have made in 2016 to a Colorado artist to create designs and possibly a website for his same-sex wedding was now part of a case before the U.S. Supreme Court. The man says he has been married to a woman for 15 years and never asked for services from a Christian website designer. (Victoria Bisset and Jacyln Peiser, Washington Post)

• A year after the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the real-life effects of the decision are now starting to come into focus. Over a dozen states have near total abortion bans, with several other state bans in the works: As the US enters its second year without the access afforded by Roe v. Wade, researchers and clinicians expect access to dwindle for a growing number of states across the country, with the true effects still yet to come. (Selena Simmons-Duffin, NPR)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• French President Emmanuel Macron to meet with some 220 mayors of towns that have witnessed riots that broke out since the death of the 17-year-old Nahel M. at the hands of a police officer: Seeking to suppress the violent unrest that has swept across major cities the past five nights, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin on Sunday announced that 45,000 police and gendarmerie officers will be deployed across France for a third consecutive night. (France 24)  

• ‘There is no hope’: simmering anger boils over in poverty-riven French district: Situation in Borny mirrors that in many of the neighborhoods that have clashed with police amid riots. (Angelique Chrisafis, The Guardian)

• Behind French riots lie years of anger over police conduct: Law-enforcement tactics that once remained in the shadows are now surfacing in videos, prompting investigations and inflaming the public. (Matthew Dalton, Wall Street Journal)

• Israeli military forces launch major operation in the West Bank city of Jenin in a major operation focused on the city’s restive refugee camp, with reports of airstrikes on multiple targets: The Palestinian Authority health ministry said eight people were killed and at least 27 others were wounded in a number of strikes, as large numbers of Israeli ground forces were seen entering the city from several directions. The ministry said seven Palestinians were listed in serious condition. The Israel Defense Forces confirmed that “security forces are now engaged in a widescale effort to thwart terror throughout Jenin” and had struck “terror infrastructure” in the city. (Emanuel Fabian, Times of Israel)

• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen set to travel to Beijing to look to mend ties after a spate of bilateral tensions: Yellen’s trip will highlight the Biden administration’s efforts to reinstate lines of communication with counterparts in Beijing. An escalation in tensions stemming from then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (past Speaker at The Common Good) trip last year to Taiwan — which Beijing claims as part of China — and the flight of a Chinese balloon over the US had stymied plans to meet in limbo. (Viktoria Dendrinou, Bloomberg)

• DEA administrator Anne Milgram has called for further cooperation from China and Mexico in the fight against the US’s fentanyl crisis: In an interview, Milgram said that despite the DEA standing “ready to work with anyone who will work with us”, the US has “not had the cooperation that we want to have” from China, adding that the Mexican government also “needs to do more.“ In response to a question on China’s role alongside the US in preventing fentanyl from being produced, Milgram said: “We have had recent conversations with Chinese authorities, both in Beijing and in Washington, talking … The recent conversations, I think, are very important, and now we have to see if we can turn this into law enforcement cooperation,” she added. (Maya Yang, The Guardian)

• After a yearlong freeze, the US and China are expected to resume climate talks as special envoy for climate change John Kerry is set to travel to China next week: In an interview, Mr. Kerry stated, ‘“China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world and we’re also the two largest emitters. It’s clear that we have a special responsibility to find common ground.” (Lisa Friedman, New York Times)

• Some potentially good news about the fate of jailed WSJ reporter Evan Gerchkovich: the Kremlin is open to talks over a potential prisoner swap. (Wall Street Journal)

• Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China: The Treasury Secretary is tasked with easing the tension between China and the US in her four-days visit to China. In an attempt to avoid the disastrous consequences from the decoupling of the two economies, she has to convince China that the U.S. measures blocking access to sensitive technology in the name of national security are not intended to inflict harm on the Chinese economy. (Alan Rappeport, New York Times)

• Japan will soon release Fukushima radioactive water into the ocean. How worried should we be?: Japan claims they have no choice but to release treated Fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the ocean as they are running out of space to store them. (Jessie Yeung, Mayumi Maruyama and Emiko Jozuka, CNN)

• In China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, Asians’ supposed commitment to conservative family life is collapsing: As we report in our Asia and China sections this week, millions of young people are opting for looser, often lonelier and—in the East Asian context—less male- dominated arrangements. (The Economist)

• The dark universe is waiting: What will the Euclid Telescope reveal? The European Space Agency mission, which launched on Saturday, will capture billions of galaxies to create a cosmic map spanning space and time. (Katrina Miller, New York Times)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

• Russian troops placed “objects resembling explosives” on the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP), Ukraine warns: Zelensky announced in June that Ukrainian intelligence suspected Russia of plotting a terrorist attack at Zaporizhzhia and that the supposed attack would cause radiation leakage. The ZNPP lies along the banks of the Dnipro River. Since March of last year, Russia has had full control over it. However, the plant is mainly operated by Ukrainians, whom invading Russian troops forced to work at “gunpoint.” The Financial Times reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Putin against using nuclear weapons during the war. It is unclear how Russia would gain from an explosion at the ZNPP. (Christian Edwards, CNN)

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wishes America a happy birthday in a Wall Street Journal op-ed today: "America’s Founders . . . broke with centuries of subservience to create a new type of nation, one where all are equal and live free. . . . On Feb. 24, 2022, we Ukrainians made the same choice." (Wall Street Journal)

• A top Kremlin official reported on Wednesday that the Russia-Ukraine war would end within days if the West stopped aiding Ukraine. (John Bacon, USA Today)

• ECONOMIST: Technology is deepening civilian involvement in war: In Ukraine, civilians have played a huge role as “Kyiv has placed cross-society resistance at the heart of its national defence." (The Economist)

Week of June 26-June 30, 2023

DOMESTIC

• President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program rejected by Supreme Court: In a long awaited decision, the Supreme Court delivered its latest blow on student loan forgiveness, ruling against President Biden’s plan to cancel roughly $400 billion in student loan debt. (Robert Barnes and Danielle Douglas-Gabriel, The Washington Post).

• Supreme Court decides against affirmative action in college admissions: Thursday's 6-3 ruling by the Supreme Court found it unconstitutional to consider race in university admissions, eliminating affirmative action in colleges–the methods that nation's most selective schools used to diversify their campus. (Jess Bravin, The Wall Street Journal)

• Supreme Court surprise decision on election law: In a 6-3 ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the theory that state legislatures have unlimited power to set rules for federal elections and draw partisan congressional maps without oversight from state courts. The Court’s ruling in Moore v. Harper comes at the end of the high court’s term, giving advocates a reason to cheer. (Robert Barnes, The Washington Post)

• Former Lieutenant Governor of New York and friend of The Common Good Richard Ravitch passed away at 90: Known for his integrity and discipline during his time as a civic leader, Ravitch revitalized New York’s subway system as it fell into disrepair in the late 70s and rebalanced much of the cities finances in a legacy of contributions felt by all New Yorkers. (Clayton Guse and Stephen Nessen, Gothamist)

• Heat wave stretches across the US South: More than 55 million people across the country were under a heat advisory this past Tuesday, as daily high temperatures remained above 100 degrees for days on end. Scientists have no doubt that the heat wave and others around the world are increasing in frequency, temperature, and intensity as a result of climate change. (Marie E. Oliver, Carmen K. Sisson and David Montgomery, The New York Times)

• Republican Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, admitted that Trump might not be the GOP’s strongest presidential candidate, and immediately backtracked: Trump’s allies were angered on Tuesday after hearing McCarthy’s comment that Trump might not be the “strongest political opponent” against President Biden. Hours after the comment was made, in a televised interview, Speaker Kevin McCarthy made clear his loyalty to the former president but suggested that Mr. Trump might not be the best positioned Republican candidate to win the 2024 election. (Smith, et al. The New York Times)

• Republicans’ anti-woke, anti-vote crusade has crashed into the Constitution: Arkansas passed the first-in-the-nation law outlawing gender-affirming care for transgender children. Gov. Asa Hutchinson vetoed the bill that positioned “the state as the definitive oracle of medical care, overriding parents, patients and health care experts,” which he called a “vast government overreach.” (Charles M. Blow, The New York Times)

• Portland lost nearly 3% of its population between 2020 and 2022: For the first time in years, the most populous city in Oregon is losing residents, as communities face serious crime and homelessness issues. According to the US Census, the drop was the sixth largest decline out of the 50 largest cities. (Zusha Elinson, The Wall Street Journal)

• There’s been a 30% increase in legalized same sex marriages: Same sex couples now make up 1% of all US households. This coming on the 8th anniversary of the ruling, Obergefell v. Hodges. The biggest increase came in Mountain West states such as Utah and Wyoming. Only 5 states have seen a decrease, one of which being South Dakota. Florida has one of the largest amounts of same-sex households, but a survey from UCLA and Clark University found that more than half of LGBTQ+ parents in the state have considered leaving in response to ongoing anti-LGBTQ+ legislation. (Erin Davis, Axios)

• Eviction filings are 50% higher than they were pre-pandemic in some cities as rents rise: After a lull during the pandemic, eviction filings by landlords have come roaring back, driven by rising rents and a long-running shortage of affordable housing. Many low income tenants are finding it hard to recover because they haven’t found steady work or their wages haven’t kept pace with the rising cost of rent, food and other necessities. As a result, homelessness is rising. Among the hardest-hit are Houston, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Nashville, Phoenix, and Rhode Island. (Michael Casey, Associated Press)

• Yusef Salaam, one of the Central Park Five, appeared to be the probable victor in the race for a Central Harlem City Council seat: Mr. Salaam was greeted with “congratulations” as he walked down the streets of Harlem on Wednesday. Voters say that they are eager what the future of Harlem will look like if Mr. Salaam is elected. (Smith et al., The New York Times)

ECONOMY

• Boost in US economy exceeds forecasts: This past Thursday, the government reported a 2% rise in GDP growth in the first quarter, an increase from previous estimates. The report comes as Biden delivers a major speech on his economic plan for the nation going forward. (Sam Sutton, Politico)

• Why the US fiscal deficit actually matters: New forecasts released by the Congressional Budget Office released new projection as the federal budget deficit is expected to soar in the coming years. Recent forecasts by the CBO show widening projections and long-term challenges for the US economy. If left unchecked, the agency warns that the US is at risk of higher interest rates, inflation, and less private investment and growth. (Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin, Axios)

• Legacy media companies see drop in value as Netflix rises again: Investors have once again become excited by Netflix’s future prospects as shares have surged the past five months, outpacing the S&P 500. Meanwhile, other companies scramble to save the bottom line through layoffs, selling of media rights, or pulling showings. All of this amidst an ongoing writers’ strike with no end in sight that threatens to get worse with actors set to join them on strike this Friday. (Alex Sherman, CNBC) 

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

• Russia grapples with the fallout from this weekend’s Wagner Group uprising by calming allies, exiling instigator Yevgeny Prigozhin, and pardoning the mutinous troops: Putin appears to have overcome the biggest threat to his power so far after diverting a column of troops from the mercenary Wagner group marching on Moscow and negotiating the exile of its leader and his former allyPrigozhin to Belarus though its president Lukashenko. The sudden uprising from disgruntled mercenaries unhappy with the slow, costly invasion of Ukraine shocked the country and world, and in an address to the nation Putin reaffirmed the strength and unity of Russia as he granted amnesty to participating troops and promised their integration into the main military in attempts to move on from the revolt. (The New York Times)

• In the aftermath of the Wagner rebellion, the Kremlin tries to project unity and reassert Putin’s strength: The official explanations for why Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was allowed to leave Russia without punishment casted new doubts on Putin’s power and abilities to lead in a crisis. (Robyn Dixon and Mary Ilyushina, The Washington Post) 

• A Russian general claims he knew about Wagner’s plans, according to US intelligence: This has raised questions about what support the mercenary leader had from top-ranking Russians. American officials said there is evidence that Russian generals might have supported Mr. Prigozhin’s attempt to change the leadership of the Defense Military via force. They claim that Mr. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising without the support of others in positions of power. US officials are investigating if General Serfei Surovikin, former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s recent actions. Officials say that Putin must now decide if he too believes General Surovikin helped Mr. Prigozhin and respond appropriately. (Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt, The New York Times)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• Protests, burning cars, and over 180 related arrests sweep across France in the wake of the shooting of a 17-year old by police during a traffic stop: The footage of the teen’s death has led to 40,000 police being deployed across the country to quell the unrest and is indicative of long-simmering tensions between youth and French people of Arab origin in disadvantaged urban neighborhoods that like the northern Parisian suburb of Nanterre where the shooting took place. (Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath, Axios)

• Canadian wildfires cause unhealthy air quality in parts of the US: Coming just a few weeks after massive Canadian fires blanketed the northeastern US and Great Lakes Region, ongoing wildfires raised air quality concerns across the country. The cities of Chicago, Minneapolis, and Detroit experienced the first wave of haze and dense smoke, with air quality categorized as “unhealthy” and warnings to limit time outdoors. (Melina Walling, Melissa Winder, and Trisha Ahmed, Associated Press)

• Central-Bank body says interest rates may remain high for longer than expected: The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) 2023 Annual Economy Report warns that the world economy is at a crucial point, with central banks staying the course in the inflation battle. (Marc Jones, Reuters)

• Chinese balloon used American tech to spy on Americans: US officials said the Chinese spy balloon was loaded with commercially available US gear with specialized Chinese sensors to collect photos, videos and other information. These findings support a conclusion that the craft was intended for spying, although the craft didn't appear to send information back to China. (Nancy A. Youssef, The Wall Street Journal)

• “The curse of 35” is a real fear for many mid-career Chinese professionals: With the hiring cutoff at 35 years old for government jobs and many companies reluctant to hire workers once they reach that age, many Chinese workers dread a reality where they are underemployed or even unemployable once they hit their thirties. (Li Yuan, The New York Times)

• Archaeologists believe they found a painting reflecting an ancient version of pizza in the ruins of Pompeii: When excavating the site earlier this year, the researchers came across a fresco with a silver platter with wine, fruit, and a round piece of dough with toppings that looked a lot like pizza. (Elisabetta Povoledo, The New York Times)

• “Presumed human remains” were among recovered evidence from the seafloor where the OceanGate submersible’s remains were discovered, the US Coast Guard reported on Wednesday: In a news release, the Coast Guard said that these remains were found “within the wreckage” of the submersible. The Coast Guard explained that there still is a lot of work to be done to understand what led to the loss of the Titan. (Paul Murphy, Kristina Sgueglia and Paula Newton, CNN)

Week of June 19- Jun 26, 2023

ECONOMY

• US National debt tops $32 trillion for the first time: This comes after weeks of a congressional showdown to raise the debt ceiling, with sources saying another fight is looming later in the year. This $32 million mark arrived nine years sooner than the pre pandemic forecasts had projected. Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed concern on the issue but no compromising solutions have been reached.  (Alan Rappeport, The New York Times)

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signals likelihood of more interest rate hikes due to persistently high inflation: During a semi-annual testimony to Congress, Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee on U.S. monetary policy. After the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged following ten straight hikes, Powell reiterated that inflation pressures are still high, with most Fed policymakers expecting more rate hikes by the end of the year. (Paul Wiseman, AP News).

• UPS workers call for Teamsters Union to strike: Workers have been negotiating for months on a range of issues with mixed success. A large point of better AC and ventilation for trucks has been addressed but this was back in April. Over 325,000 workers could strike and this would have ripple effects on the economy. The main issue is that of pay and while talks have gone back and forth no resolutions have been reached. If a strike were to occur other companies would have to fill the gaps but this means higher pricing and the potential for some customers to lose their shipping needs. (Noam Scheiber, The New York Times)

• How Google is making up for lost time in the AI race: ChatGPT revolutionized AI and left competitors scrambling to catch up. One such competitor, Google, is now making progress in the race through integrating AI to streamline functions. So as compared to copy and paste that is the norm Google is developing apps that fit right into Google products ie Chrome, Gmail, Docs, etc.  (Casey Newton, Platformer)

• Student Loan Pause Is Ending, With Consequences for Economy: As part of the debt-limit deal, a pause on student loan payments must be lifted no later than August 3oth, amounting to close to $185 million. Ending the pause is going to constrain spending for millions of families. (Lydia DePillis, The New York Times)

• Is the Inflation Battle Won? Not Yet: Fed officials estimated that inflation would be at around 3.9% at the end of 2023, higher than the previous forecast of 3.6 percent. Which is also accompanied by early signs that labor market slowdown is underway. (Jeanna Smialek, The New York Times)

DOMESTIC

• Many Republicans hesitant to move forward with motion that would seek to impeach president Biden: Representative Lauren Boebert (R Colorado) surprised of her GOP colleagues when she filed a privileged motion to force a vote to impeach the Biden over alleged dereliction of duty and abuse of power over his handling of the US-Mexico border, with members of her party questioning the feasibility and actual premises for moving forward with the vote as a motion by House Democrats tabling the motion is expected to succeed. (The Hill)

• Hunter Biden has reached a plea deal with federal prosecutors to resolve tax issues and gun charges: Under an agreement detailed Tuesday in a filing in a Delaware federal court, President Biden’s son will plead guilty to a pair of misdemeanour tax charges. After a five-year federal investigation into his failure to pay about $1 million in federal taxes and his purchase of a handgun while being a user of illegal drugs—a felony—in 2018, prosecutors have agreed to dismiss the firearm possession charge, assuming he will complete two years of probation. (Politico)

• Former President Trump faces Aug. 14 trial date in Classified Documents Case: This date will most likely be delayed, however, once Donald Trump's legal team presents anticipated legal challenges to the indictment and the government’s evidence. After being accused of illegally holding on to national security information after he left the White House in January 2021 and of obstructing efforts to identify and retrieve the records, he pleaded not guilty in a Miami federal courtroom last week. The trial date set in a Tuesday order from US District Judge Aileen Cannon is not official and will most likely be changed. (Bloomberg)

• An Arkansas judge stuck down a state law banning gender-affirming care for minors: The decision, made on Tuesday, is blocking what could have been the first in such efforts made by conservative lawmakers across the nation. The cause was important as it put into question whether bans or significant restrictions on transition care for youth could survive the legal challenges brought by trans activists. This is the first ruling to broadly block statewide bans. (The New York Times)

• The Supreme Court’s approval has dropped to an all-time low: Almost a year after the court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade, a Quinnipiac University poll found that 30% of registered voters approved of the country’s highest court, while 59% disapproved. 10% of registered Democrats compared to the 53% of registered Republicans polled approved of the Court. Almost 7/10 registered voters in this poll think that the Supreme Court is primarily motivated by politics. A quarter of those surveyed think the Supreme Court is “mainly motivated by the law.” (The Hill)

• Math and reading performance of American 13-year-olds has hit the lowest level in decades: Test scores of The National Assessment of Educational Progress, the gold-standard exam, were released on Wednesday. Performance has fallen greatly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the downward trends reported began prior to the health crisis. This has raised questions about a decade of low performance levels for US students. Performance had downward trends across lines of race, class, and geography. In math, however, Black, Native American, and low-income students experienced bigger drops. These scores can help educators better understand the difficulties that lie ahead for children of different ages and demographics. (NYT)

• South Florida enacted a quarantine on Tuesday to stop the spread of giant African land snails: This invasive snail species is one of the most destructive species in the world. The giant African land snail can devastate tropical environments, grow to be roughly 8-inches long, and can lay 1,200 eggs a year. It is illegal to own, purchase, and sell these snails in the US. The quarantine spans an area including Pembroke Road and South University Drive in Broward County. Under the order, removing a giant African land snail from a designated area and relocating or moving it to another area within the designated space is illegal. The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) will treat the affected area with a pesticide named methaldehype. (USA Today)

INTERNATIONAL/WORLD

• The Greek Coast Guard is being scrutinised after deciding to not help rescue hundreds of smuggled migrants on an overloaded fishing boat: Greek officials claimed that they had not intervened because the smugglers didn’t want them to. Nikos Alexiou, a Coast Guard spokesperson, explained that intervening would have also been dangerous since the ship was filled with migrants who wanted to reach Italy. He also said that “you can’t intervene in international waters against a boat that is not engaged in smuggling or some other crime.” (The New York Times)

• The Taliban is selling tickets to Buddha ruins they blew up: The Buddhas were destroyed in 2001 when Taliban founder Mohammad Omar declared the Buddhas false gods. Since returning to power the Taliban sells these tickets but opinions on the practice are mixed. Bamian, where the ruins are located, could hold the answer to a crucial question “What kind of government does the regime want to be this time — and how much has it really changed since 2001?” The ruins mainly attract two kinds of visitors either Taliban soldiers who marvel at the beauty of the cliffs, or educated Afghans upset at the Taliban for ruining the monument and returning to power disrupting their two decade long peace. (Rick Noack, The Washington Post)

• Shark population declining around the globe: A massive new survey of nearly 400 coral reefs around the world reveals sharks once common in those waters are vanishing and are at risk of going extinct. Populations of five common reef sharks (Caribbean reef shark, nurse shark, grey reef shark, blacktip reef shark and whitetip reef shark.) have endured staggering declines of between 60 percent to 73 percent over the past half-century. The declines, which were calculated using models of what healthy reefs should look like, were at their starkest in less wealthy nations with lax regulations. The main reason for decline being overfishing for shark fins to cook an Asian delicacy. The US has since banned the sale of shark fins but they still go for a high price in markets abroad. The ripple effect on oceanic ecosystems would cause major problems for sea life as well as humanity. (Dino Grandoni,The Washington Post)

• Biden welcomed Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to the White House on Thursday morning: This meeting is happening  at a time of America’s rising conflicts with Russia and China. The visit demonstrates President Biden’s latest effort to seek more allies against the increasingly aggressive governments in Moscow and Beijing. India has not joined the American-led coalition aiding Ukraine in its war against invading Russian forces. Although the country does not have great relations with China either, it has not fully agreed to subscribe to Washington’s strategy for dealing with the country. Mr. Modi and Mr. Biden plan to announce a long list of initiatives regarding the cooperation on telecommunications, semiconductors, AI, and other areas, according to their administration officials. (NYT)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

• Ukraine paid contractors hundreds of millions of dollars for weapons that have not been delivered or are unusable: Ukrainian government documents show that Kyiv had paid arms suppliers more than $800 million as of the end of last year since the Russian invasion in early 2022 for contracts that went partly or even completely unfulfilled. Some of the missing weapons were eventually delivered, and in other cases brokers had refunded the money. However, hundreds of millions of dollars had been paid—including to state-owned companies—for arms that never materialized. (The New York Times)

• Ukraine is making positive advancements in their war effort: Ukrainian forces are advancing in southern sectors of their counter-offensive against Russian occupation troops. According to Ukrainian military officials Russians forces in the area are being pushed back in substantial quantities in terms of square km. (Olena Harmash, Reuters)

• The U.S. Is Paying Billions to Russia’s Nuclear Agency Despite the ongoing war the US is currently paying Russia $1 billion a year for enriched uranium: This is because although Russia has been condemned for the war in Ukraine the uranium is a key ingredient to emissions free energy in the US. It is estimated that developing another reliable source will take over a decade. Still experts urge officials to do so Russia could use the uranium as a bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations. (Max Bearak, The New York Times)

Week of June 12-16  

CLIMATE CHANGE

• El Niño has begun. What to know about the weather phenomenon: Scientists say this natural warming of temperatures over the Pacific ocean has begun and is expected to last into 2024, bringing warm, dry weather to the Northern US and Canada - potentially escalating the already large wildfires there - and more storms in the Southwest, likely leading to dangerous flooding. The increasingly visible impact of climate change are likely to make all of this weather more extreme in the coming months.  (Anisha Kohl, TIME) 

TRUMP INDICTMENTS

• Trump supporters’ violent rhetoric disturbs experts: “The federal indictment of former President Donald Trump has unleashed a wave of calls by his supporters for violence and an uprising to defend him, disturbing observers and raising concerns of a dangerous atmosphere ahead of his court appearance in Miami on Tuesday,”...“In social media posts and public remarks, close allies of Mr. Trump — including a member of Congress — have portrayed the indictment as an act of war, called for retribution and highlighted the fact that much of his base carries weapons. The allies have painted Mr. Trump as a victim of a weaponized Justice Department controlled by President Biden, his potential opponent in the 2024 election.”  ( New York Times) 

• Evidence against Trump came from within Mar-a-Lago:  “The 37-count federal indictment of former president Donald Trump unsealed Friday provides a vivid account of Trump’s actions at his homes in South Florida and New Jersey, and is based on information from a coterie of close aides, household staffers and lawyers hired to serve Trump in his post-presidency.”  (Washington Post)

• Trump appointee will remain Judge in documents case:  “The criminal case against President Donald J. Trump over his hoarding of classified documents was randomly assigned to Judge Aileen M. Cannon…The chief clerk of the federal court system there, Angela E. Noble, also confirmed that Judge Cannon would continue to oversee the case unless she recused herself.”  (New York Times)

• Trump faces severe jail time:  “Each count of willful retention of records carries a maximum 10-year sentence. Obstruction charges each carry a 20-year maximum sentence. False-statements charges each carry a five-year maximum -”  (Politico) 

• On the heels of a federal criminal indictment last week over the alleged mishandling of classified documents, former President Donald Trump is expected to appear in federal court in Miami. Trump is facing a charge under the Espionage Act, attorney Jim Trusty told CNN before he was removed from the case, as well as charges of obstruction of justice, destruction or falsification of records, conspiracy and false statements. The federal indictment comes just months after Trump, who has denied any wrongdoing, was charged by a Manhattan grand jury in a separate hush-money case.  (CNN)

• Former President Donald Trump used the first public appearance since his federal indictment to ratchet up attacks on the Justice Department, accusing prosecutors, without evidence, of a politically motivated campaign to keep him from the White House. Speaking on Saturday at Georgia's state Republican convention, Trump alleged that President Joe Biden, a Democrat, orchestrated the criminal charges in order to undermine his main political rival's presidential campaign, as well as to distract from federal and congressional investigations into Biden's son. (Reuters)

• How Walt Nauta became Trump’s co-conspirator: “After serving his country in the military and serving as a valet in the White House, Mr. Nauta stayed with Mr. Trump as a personal aide — and now faces the prospect of years in federal prison for having apparently carried out his wishes.”  “Until now largely unknown to the public, Mr. Nauta has been thrust into the spotlight as a low-level but central figure in the conspiracy being alleged by prosecutors. Mr. Nauta, who has been on Mr. Trump’s campaign payroll, was part of Mr. Trump’s traveling retinue during a trip to Georgia and North Carolina on Saturday.”  (New York Times)

• Former AG BILL BARR on “Fox News Sunday” this morning: “I was shocked by the degree of sensitivity of these documents and how many there were, frankly. … If even half of it is true, then he’s toast. I mean, it’s a very detailed indictment, and it’s very, very damning. And this idea of presenting Trump as a victim here, a victim of a witch hunt, is ridiculous.”  (Fox News Sunday)

• “There is not an Attorney General of either party who would not have brought today’s charges against the former president.” Past TCG speaker and ASA Awardee Judge J. Michael Luttig on (Twitter)

• Donald Trump has an online problem: According to survey results, the indictment divided Republicans more than it divided Democrats, with a growing number of Republicans bothered by his legal problems. (David Leonhardt, NYT)  

ECONOMY

• Global inequality is lowest in 150 years. “Driven by a rising China and India, this century has seen a stunning decrease in global inequality — bringing it down to levels not seen since the 1870s.  That's the conclusion by Branko Milanovic, one of the world's foremost inequality researchers. The U.S. has only about 4% of the world's population. Increasing equality …foreshadows a waning of U.S. hegemony.  Inequality is measured using the Gini coefficient, which runs on a scale from 0 (perfect equality) to 100 (where one person would have all of the world's income).  On that scale, inequality fell from 69 in 2000 to 60 in 2018 — and is almost certainly even lower today. That means the world looks more equal than at any point since about 1875.  What's happening: In 2018, for every 100 Americans earning more than the median U.S. income, about 25 Chinese people earned that much. Within the next 20-30 years, the number of Chinese people earning more than the U.S. median will reach, then surpass the number of Americans.  But it's not just China getting richer. "In the 1970s, India's share of global GDP was less than three percent, whereas that of Germany, a major industrial power, was seven percent," notes Milanovic. "By 2021, those proportions had been swapped."  (Foreign Affairs )

• Pace of US inflation eases to slowest in over two years: The annual pace of US inflation eased last month to its lowest level in more than two years, but lingering price gains will keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider additional interest rate increases. The consumer price index climbed 4 per cent in May compared with a year earlier, a significant step down from the 4.9 per cent annual jump registered in April and marking the slowest increase since March 2021. Inflation has also slowed sharply from its peak of 9.1 per cent last June. Consumer prices edged up just 0.1 per cent on a monthly basis in May. (Financial Times)

• San Francisco’s once thriving hotel market is suffering its worst stretch in at least 15 years, pummeled by the same forces that have emptied out the city’s office towers and closed many retail stores. In San Francisco, hotels are still struggling badly in both occupancy and room rates compared with before the pandemic. Revenue per available room was nearly 23% lower in April compared with the same month in 2019. (Wall Street Journal)

• San Francisco Mall Turned Over to Lender as Downtown Struggles: Owner of Westfield San Francisco Centre stops paying debt, citing drop in sales and foot traffic. (Wall Street Journal)

DOMESTIC

• Illinois became the first state to prohibit book bans Monday, as several other states across the US continue to challenge and remove certain titles from public schools and libraries. "Book bans are about censorship, marginalizing people, marginalizing ideas and facts," said Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat. The measure, which takes effect January 1, says public libraries will not be eligible for state money unless they adopt the American Library Association's Bill of Rights or their own statement prohibiting book bans. The signing comes amid a surge in laws limiting access to certain books, with "the vast majority written by or about members of the LGBTQIA+ community and people of color," the association said.  (CNN)

• Why is the US banning children's books? The ALA documented an unparalleled number of reported book challenges in 2022, more than 2,500 unique titles, the highest number of attempted book bans since the ALA began tracking censorship data more than 20 years ago….The movement to ban books is driven by a vocal minority demanding censorship," Kasey Meehan, director of PEN America's Freedom to Read project, tells BBC Culture…Bans occurred in 32 states, affecting four million children and young people.”    (BBC.com)

• David Leonhardt: “About 60 percent of U.S. voters do not have a four-year college degree, and they live disproportionately in swing states. As a result, these voters — often described as the American working class — are crucial to winning elections.” “Yet many of them are deeply skeptical of today’s Democratic Party.” “Republicans retook control of the House last year by winning most districts with below-median incomes. In nearly 20 Western and Southern states, Democrats are virtually shut out of statewide offices largely because of their weakness among the white working class. Since 2018, the party has also lost ground with Black, Asian and especially Latino voters.” ( David Leonhardt, NYTIMES)) 

• North Carolina Republicans censure U.S. Senator Thom Tillis:  “Republican delegates in North Carolina voted Saturday at their annual convention to censure Thom Tillis, the state’s senior U.S. senator, for backing LGBTQ+ rights, immigration and gun violence policies,” (AP)

• “They're playing political games with you.” Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, trying to win over potential voters during a CNN town hall Monday night by slamming Donald Trump and other GOP primary candidates. Christie, a clear underdog in the 2024 Republican presidential race, has anchored his campaign to calling out Trump and his GOP rivals for either hedging or taking Trump's side to avoid political blowback. (CNN)

• George Soros is handing Alex Soros the reins of his sprawling Open Society Foundation.   The 37-year-old, who goes by Alex, said in the first interview since his selection that he was broadening his father’s liberal aims—“We think alike,” the elder Soros said—while embracing some different causes. Those include voting and abortion rights, as well as gender equity.  “Alex is more focused on domestic politics than his father, he said. Alex is helping Democrats appeal to Latino voters and improve turnout among Black voters. He has urged Democratic politicians to better hone their message, broadening the party’s appeal.  “‘Our side has to be better about being more patriotic and inclusive,’ he said. ‘Just because someone votes Trump doesn’t mean they’re lost or racist.’” (WSJ

• Joe Klein, Past TCG Speaker on Chris Christie Town Hall on CNN: “It was an exhilarating 90 minutes, and not only because of Christie’s candor. We knew the attacks on Trump were coming. But the surprise—and I must say, it was a relief—was the joy that came from watching a terrific stand-up politician at work. I had almost forgotten what that was like.” “Christie speaks plain English. He is self-deprecating. He was fluent and reasonable—even when I disagreed with his positions—on a broad swath of issues.” (Political Wire)

• The House effectively killed a resolution to censure Past TCG Speaker Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), voting for a Democratic-led motion to table the measure. (The Hill)

• Millions of Americans’ personal data exposed in global hack: a sprawling cyberattack likely by a hacking campaign using the same software vulnerability to a Russian ransomes gang hit US Federal agencies, potentially exposed data from hundreds of organizations. (Sean Lyngaas, CNN)  

INTERNATIONAL

• German investigators are examining evidence that suggests a sabotage team used Poland, a European Union neighbor and NATO ally, as an operating base to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines built to transport Russian gas through the Baltic Sea. The probe by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office is examining why the yacht they believe was used to carry out the operation journeyed into Polish waters. Other findings suggest Poland was a hub for the logistics and financing of last September’s undersea sabotage attack that severed the strongest bond tying Berlin to Moscow. Poland, which is conducting its own inquiry, has struggled for months to learn what Germany is investigating. (Wall Street Journal)

• Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that his military is lacking high-precision ammunition and attack drones as Moscow continues its assault on Ukraine. "During the special military operation, it became clear that we don't have enough of some things ... unfortunately, we need greater quantities," Putin said in a rare admission to reporters in Moscow. Some analysts say Putin may be trying to find a soft landing for himself if the war in Ukraine fails. Meanwhile, on the ground, Ukrainian forces are claiming some success in their offensives in the south and east. Kyiv's top general said this week that his troops have seen "certain gains."  (CNN)

• The UK’s opposition Labour Party is on track for a landslide victory at the next general election, according to a new poll — with a higher than typical sample size — that is likely ramp up the pressure on Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Labour could win 470 seats at the election, with the Tories plummeting to just 129, according to the baseline scenario of an MRP poll by Focaldata, which asked 10,140 people in Great Britain how they intend to vote. That would give Labour a huge majority of more than 140 seats, it said. (Bloomberg)

• Europe to regulate AI:  The A.I. Act would impose first-of-their-kind limits. Introduced in 2021, before ChatGPT was online, its proposed requirements include publicly available summaries of the copyrighted material used to train A.I. systems; safeguards to prevent generative A.I. from producing illegal content; and bans on live facial recognition.  Margrethe Vestager, the E.U.’s competition chief, said this morning that she considered discrimination by A.I. a bigger risk from the technology than human extinction.  But it’s worth remembering that the proposal will still be subject to further negotiations with other European bodies, including national parliaments, before becoming law.

• Tech giants have sought to shape the E.U.’s efforts. Sam Altman, the C.E.O. of the ChatGPT parent OpenAI, recently warned that his company could leave Europe if the A.I. Act was too tough. (He then backtracked.) Other top executives, including Sundar Pichai of Alphabet, have pledged to help the E.U. devise its rules.

• The US is working to secure an informal agreement with Iran to limit hostility in the region: Hoping to exchange promises to limit further sanctions and unfreeze some funds in return for a halt on Tehran’s enrichment of Uranium to nuclear capable levels and calling off proxy forces attacking American contractors, Biden wants the US focus on the war in Eastern Europe and not on further escalation in the middle East. (NYT)

• Biden’s gamble: delaying sanctions and playing down Chinese espionage will improve relations with Beijing: punitive economic measures against China were delayed and played down after Beijing’s intense intelligence gathering in hope to improve the diplomatic relations between the two countries. (NBC news)

Week of May 8-12  

POLITICS

• With a catastrophic default looming, Republicans and the Whitehouse are under negotiations to reach a compromise. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is expected to push some compromises on the GOP debt limit bill including implementing spending caps, rescinding unspent COVID relief funds, work requirements for pubic assistance programs, and allowing reform in other areas that they see as workable to find a deal with Biden and Democrats. (Emily Brooks, The Hill)

• Biden faces a lose-lose situation as criticisms mount from both sides as Title 42 - a pandemic-era policy aimed to freeze border crossings as a public health emergency order - comes to an end. Former president Trump echoed the predictable response from the right that it will cause thousands of immigrants to flood across the border at this week’s CNN townhall, but progressives from Biden’s own party have criticized the president for returning to the same policies that Trump instituted during his presidency. (Politico)

• Extinction of the moderate It's been a tough start to 2023 for moderates hoping for a return to normalcy in our politics. (Josh Kraushaar - Axios )

ECONOMY

• The showdown over the debt ceiling risks wrecking the dollar’s credibility internationally and the reputation of US treasury bonds as a safe investment: This would not only lead to “worldwide economic devastation” but further cast the US away from its position as an international leader at a critical time and undo decades of political wrangling from both parties to prevent just this scenario..  (Jon Talton, Seattle Times)

• Biden says he’s exploring 14th amendment to defuse debt ceiling standoff: The president said he would look at possibly invalidating the debt ceiling through the 14th amendment “months down the road.” (Politico)

• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said invoking the 14th Amendment to get around the debt ceiling, and continue borrowing money to pay the nation's bills would risk a "constitutional crisis," downplaying the idea that the amendment would simply solve the looming problem -- but she avoided ruling it out entirely. "What to do if Congress fails to meet its responsibility? (Tal Axelrod, ABC News)

• Yellen is calling CEOs personally to warn on the US debt ceiling, sources say: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is reaching out to U.S. business and financial leaders to explain the "catastrophic" impact a U.S. default on its debt would have on the U.S. and global economies, two sources familiar with the matter said. The Treasury secretary is having one-on-one conversations with individual CEOs to warn them about the "dangerous consequences of the current brinkmanship." (Reuters)

DOMESTIC

• What’s Driving Record Levels of Migration to the U.S. Border? Millions of people are leaving their homes across Latin America in numbers not seen in decades, many of them pressing toward the United States. (Natalie Kitroeff and Julie Turkewitz/New York Times)

• Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee announced that he would call lawmakers back to the state's Capitol on Aug. 21 for a special session after the Republican-led Legislature adjourned earlier this year without taking on gun control. (ABC News)

• A case brought by anti-abortion groups seeking to ban the abortion pill mifepristone nationwide will be heard next week by a panel of three deeply conservative judges hostile to abortion rights, a federal appeals court revealed. The Biden administration is expected to urge the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel in New Orleans on May 17 to overturn a court order that suspended the federal government's approval of mifepristone. (Reuters)

• The Proud Boys verdicts could have some ugly unintended consequences. Four of the five Proud Boys members found guilty Thursday for their role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol were convicted of seditious conspiracy, a rare and gravely serious federal charge. (Frank Figliuzzi, MSNBC)

• Florida rejects dozens of social studies textbooks as it forces edits on others to get approval in a move that impacts nearly 3 million Florida public school students. Many policymakers cited “age appropriateness” to publishers when cutting out contested topics such as covering the Black Lives Matter marches and talking to family about athletes kneeling during the national anthem as Governor Ron Densantis continues his prohibition on progressive or “woke” topics in education in light of his expected 2024 presidential campaign. (NYT)

• Raise-the-age gun bill in peril as Texas House deadline looms: A day after a committee unexpectedly advanced a bill that would raise the minimum age to purchase certain semi-automatic rifles, the legislation faces another make-or-break deadline. (Texas Tribune)

• An FDA advisory panel voted in favor of using Perrigo Co’s contraceptive – Opill – without a prescription, paving the way for the country’s first approval for an over-the-counter birth control pill. Contraceptives have been in focus since the US supreme court last year overturned the constitutional right to terminate pregnancies as it scrapped a landmark ruling in the 1973 Roe v Wade case. (The Guardian)

• The U.S. has approved more than $42 billion in federal student loan debt forgiveness for more than 615,000 borrowers in the past 18 months as part of a program aimed at getting more people to work in public service jobs, the U.S. Department of Education said this week. (DRIANA MORGA and CORA LEWIS/AP)

 RUSSIA/UKRAINE

• Britain prepares to send long-range missiles to Ukraine: The U.K. is pushing the Biden administration into providing Ukraine with weapons that can reach further into Russian-held territory. (Washington Post)

• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Washington intends to crack down on Russia’s ability to skirt sanctions imposed by the US and allies after its invasion of Ukraine.Christopher Condon (Bloomberg)

• The Group of Seven wealthy democracies are discussing ways to counter the expanded trade to Russia from China, India and Turkey, which collectively has grown by more than $100 billion and has undermined the effectiveness of economic sanctions against Moscow. (MASAYA KATO, Nikkei)

WORLD

• Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested on corruption charges, sparking fears of further political turmoil for the country. Khan, who was removed in a no-confidence vote from parliament last year, retains high levels of popularity even as he escalated his criticisms against the powerful military regime that wields great influence. (NYT)

• Turkey’s upcoming election holds dramatic consequences for not only the country but NATO as well: Sweden’s admittance to the military alliance has been stalled by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for months as tensions with the rest of NATO mount, but the possibility of his loss in Sunday’s national election to opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu who currently holds a lead in polls and has pledged to bring Turkey closer to EU and back towards Democracy. (Al-Jazeera)

• China pours cold water on bilateral meeting with US defense secretary: China has told the US there is little chance of a meeting between the countries’ defense ministers at a security forum in Singapore due to a dispute over sanctions, (Financial Times)

• The United States and its allies have dismantled a major cyberespionage system that it said Russia’s intelligence service had used for years to spy on computers around the world, the Justice Department announced. In a separate report. (New York Times)

• Fears mount for the Arctic as cooperation with Russia stalls: For nearly three decades, the Arctic Council has been a successful example of post-Cold War cooperation. Now, a year after council members stopped working with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and as Norway prepares to assume the chairmanship from Moscow on May 11, experts are asking whether the polar body's viability is at risk if it cannot cooperate with the country that controls over half of the Arctic coastline. (Humeyra Pamuk,Gloria Dickie and Gwladys Fouche - Reuters)   

Week of May 1-5  

ECONOMY: 

• JPMorgan Chase takes over First Republic after U.S. seizure of ailing bank: (Hugh Sohn, CNBC)

• Signs Are Mounting That a Debt Crunch is Looming: Funding crunch complicates the Fed’s decision-making next week. Lending is shrinking and the money supply is contracting. (Neil Callanan Bloomberg)

• Recent banking crises are rooted in a system that rewards excessive risk-taking – as First Republic’s failure shows:  Lack of regulations currently risks systemic spread of bank failure. (Alexandra Digby, Dollie Davis, and Robson Morgan, The Conversation)

• Banking Regulation-There’s Far Too Little of It:  Recent bank collapses indicate a laissez-faire attitude toward regulatory oversight, which may have staunched losses if acted on earlier.   (Timothy Noah, The New Republic)

• Nearly three-quarters U.S. millennials live paycheck to paycheck, survey shows:  7 in 10 millennials are under enormous financial pressure, more than earlier generations. (Khristopher Brooks, CBS News)

• Trickling Tax Revenue Complicates Debt Limit Talks:  A short but shifting timeline to resolve debt ceiling negotiations adds pressure for both sides. (Alan Rappeport, NYTimes)

TECHNOLOGY:

• ‘The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead:  Concerns emerge over AI-fuelled misinformation and the potential for disruption to white-collar jobs.  (Cade Metz, NYTimes)

• The White House Is Probing How Companies Use AI to Surveil and Manage Workers:  AI-powered productivity software may infringe on employee privacy and have health effects. (Josh Eidelson, Bloomberg)

• AI stars in Hollywood labor negotiations:  The use of AI to mimic and augment actors’ performances has spurred new concerns over likeness and voice rights. (Ina Fried, Axios)

• A black eye for green energy? Renewable energy growth brings mounting waste challenge:  Wind and solar energy both produce considerable amounts of waste, the vast majority of which lacks recycling infrastructure. (Ben Tracy and Analisa Novak, CBS News)

POLITICS:

• “No mention of Ginni, of course," read documents from a conservative activist Leonard Leo who made a $100,000 donation through his nonprofit to Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, the same year as the nonprofit filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court. Thomas and other justices deny wrongdoing and refuse to release a statement on their ethics standards as scrutiny around the integrity of the institution heightens. (Insider)

• Supreme Court to hear major case on limiting the power of federal government, a long-term goal of legal conservatives:  The case will decide regulators’ authority to enforce and interpret federal regulations. (Ariane de Vogue and Devan Cole, CNN)

• Three paths to raising the debt limit — and why every one of them is murky: All options leave lawmakers with significant electoral risks, underscoring the importance of a compromise where both sides can save face. (Sahil Kapur, NBC News)

• Durbin Promises to Move Ahead With Supreme Court Ethics Legislation Despite Pushback:  Seeking bipartisan support, Senator Durbin leads the effort to create oversight and ethics rules for federal judges.  (Laura Litvan, Bloomberg)

DOMESTIC:

• American Airlines pilots vote to authorize strike:  With near unanimous support from membership, the Allied Pilots Association threatens a walk-off if salaries and conditions do not improve. (Allison Lampert and Priyamvada C, Reuters)

• Another big Alaska fossil fuel project gets Biden team’s blessing:  The multi-billion dollar project, Alaska LNG, is getting fast-track approval from federal administrators.  Climate activists slam President Biden over projected environmental impact of new natural gas production.   (BEN LEFEBVRE, Politico)

• US sees surge in efforts to weaken child labor regulations:  In multiple states, a combined legislative push to weaken limits on working hours for minors and quash oversight has experts warning of potential risks to child safety on worksites.    (Michael Sainato, The Guardian)

• Killing of homeless man on the New York City subway leads to tough questions and divided responses in the city: Jordan Nealy, who had a history of mental illness, was shouting at passengers and acting erratically on a subway car before he was placed in a chokehold and killed by a former marine. The shocking viral video of his death and release of the suspect from custody as charges remain to be filed against him has sparked a debate about the failure of the city to care for homeless, the limits of citizen intervention, and what the response from city officials should be (NYT)

• Fox News Poll:Voters favor gun limits over arming citizens to reduce gun violence. Half worry about being a victim of gun violence, including many in gun-owning households. A new Fox News Poll finds most voters favor the following proposals: (Fox News)

CHINA:

• Tense face-off: Philippines confronts China over sea claims:  The South China Sea remains a highly disputed area between China and multiple Pacific nations. (Jim Gomez, AP News)

• Italy signed up to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Now it’s having second thoughts:  Italy may not choose to renew an economic agreement with China over concerns with Taiwanese independence. (Silvia Amaro, CNBC)

• China’s Mixed Economic Data Fuels Concerns About Recovery:  Shrinking demand for Chinese exports propels a manufacturing decline in China. (Bloomberg)

RUSSIA/UKRAINE:

• Russia missile attack on Ukraine injures 34, damages homes: Although Ukrainian defense forces intercept a significant portion of Russian missiles, cities outside Kyiv remain at risk. (David Rising, AP News)

• Zelensky’s Plan to Defeat Russia—And Take Back Crimea:  A planned Ukrainian counteroffensive centers on the liberation of Crimea. (Anne Applebaum and Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic)

• Russia accuses Ukraine of attempting to assassinate president Putin as a drone exploded outside the Kremlin this week. Zelensky denies ordering the attack, and even some Russian media outlets remain skeptical that Ukrainian forces were behind the explosion while others speculate that it could be staged by Russia to justify escalating the war.  (Steve Rosenberg, BBC)

WORLD: 

• The World Health Organization has ended the global health emergency designation for the COVID-19 Pandemic: General Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stressed that this doesn’t mean the danger posed by the pandemic has ended. The designation has little practical effect but stands as a milestone in the fight against the virus that has killed millions globally. (NYT)

• The fighting in Sudan has re-erupted after a 72-hour humanitarian ceasefire collapsed.  The situation has the potential to be “worse than Ukraine” for civilians. (Financial Times)

Week of April 24-28

ECONOMY:  

• House Republicans overcome internal divisions to pass debt ceiling bill: After overcoming internal divisions, the Republican-led House of Representatives approved a bill on Wednesday led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that links lifting the country's debt ceiling with spending cuts and a series of GOP policy changes. (Deirdre Walsh and Claudia Grisales, NPR)

• Debit Limit lands in Rules: There won't be a dull moment now that the House and Senate are back. Heated debate is about to take place on the floor, and both chambers' committees could see some drama. As a few members continue to argue for revisions in private, House GOP leaders are daring their colleagues to vote against Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) debt ceiling proposal on the floor this week. (Politico, Kathrine Tully McManus)

• 1 big thing: Checking in on Uncle Sam's checking account: Wall Street experts are paying closer attention to the disclosed financial data from the U.S. Treasury as they attempt to predict when the Federal government would run out of money if the debt ceiling isn't raised. The U.S. exceeded its $31.4 trillion statutory debt ceiling in January, which limited the Treasury's capacity to borrow. (Axios, Matt Philips & Emily Phillips)

• 1 big thing: What higher pay means for inflation: Rising wages have been a source of concern for central bankers all across the world, including those at the Fed, for several months. That doesn't seem to be the case right now. Still, inflation is just too high. However, according to analysts, wage growth is not currently the main driver of price increases. (Axios, Courtenay Brown)

• GOP readies debt ceiling vote as Wall Street braces for a costly standoff: Investors are beginning to hedge against a possible government default, laying bare the stakes of congressional inaction. (Washington Post)

• U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter as signs build that the economy is slowing:  Higher than expected inflation and slowing growth contribute to economic uncertainty.  (Jeff Cox, CNBC)

• Ten economic facts about electricity and the clean energy transition: The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), two landmark pieces of climate legislation that were passed in the last year, may herald a revolution in the production of sustainable energy in the US. These federal resources have the potential to hasten a broad change in the energy sector, but this transition won't be successful unless we address the infrastructure problems and technological problems that are part of the current energy system. (Brookings, Lauren Bauer et. al)

•  The risks of doing deals. A British regulator’s decision to block Microsoft’s $69 billion takeover bid for Activision Blizzard stunned many who had expected the deal to go through. That’s especially because moves this month by the agency, the Competition and Markets Authority, suggested that the transaction might pass muster. (NYT)

DOMESTIC:

• US regulators approve first human pill derived from fecal matter. (Financial Times)

• Washington becomes the 10th state to ban assault weapons sales. (Axios, Melissa Santos)

• Children under 13 would be banned from social media under bipartisan Senate bill:  Responding to warnings from public health officials, a bipartisan group of legislators has proposed new rules curbing tech companies’ reach. (Rebecca Shabad and Liz Brown-Kaiser, NBC News)

• The US in 2022 saw highest number of ‘active shooter’ casualties – deaths or injuries – of the past 5 years, FBI report finds: The FBI tallied 50 active shooter incidents in 2022, resulting in 100 dead, marking a significant uptick over previous years. (Nouran Salahieh, Hannah Rabinowitz and Holmes Lybrand, CNN)

• New bill would crack down on companies that break child labor laws: Democratic Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) is leading a push in Congress for a crackdown on illegal child labor in agriculture, seeking to curtail USDA business dealings with offending companies. (Anne Marie Lee, CBS News)

• DOJ sues Tennessee over ban on gender-affirming care for minors:  Tennessee lawmakers’ bill prohibiting hormones and puberty blockers use in gender-affirming care will be challenged by the federal government, ACLU, and Lambda Legal. (Rebecca Falconer, Axios)

• Military sex assault reports rise, even as Army numbers fall:  Sexual assault remains a persistent issue for the military, though officials cite the increase as evidence of better reporting protocols and overall trust in system. (LOLITA C. BALDOR, AP News)

• CDC: America’s teens in distress: The findings of the CDC's 2021 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey and other local surveys, which were published on Thursday, provide a harsh picture of a rapidly evolving teenage population that is battling issues with mental health, pervasive community violence, physical and sexual assault, and substance abuse. Additionally, they provide the broadest window to date into how the Covid-19 pandemic's upheaval and stress affected teenagers' emotional, physical, and mental health. (Politico, Daniel Payne & Krista Mahr)

• The long shadow of school closures: Public education proponents have long contended that schools had a crucial function. Society would disintegrate without public schools, according to those who supported them. Teachers and parents were concerned that reopening schools without the necessary immunizations would result in Covid outbreaks, disease, and fatalities. In hindsight, it appears that the plan for reintegration was unsuccessful. (NYT, David Leonhardt)

• America’s Adult-ADHD Problem: Many Americans who depend on the prescription are still having difficulty finding it more than six months after the FDA declared a shortage of the ADHD medication Adderall and its generic equivalents. This shortage highlights major shortcomings in the disorder's identification and treatment, particularly in adults. (Atlantic, Kelli María Korducki)

• Controvertial talk show host who defined the 1990s Jerry Springer passed away at 79. Known for histing the provocative, often scandalous Jerry Springer Show after serving as mayor of Cincinnati, Springer died after a long battle with pancreatic cancer. (Atlantic)

CHINA:

• China’s shrinking population and constraints on its future power: When taken along with other demographic facts, the trends make it abundantly evident that China is not as massive as it may seem. Any sense of defeatism in the West stemming from worries about the People's Republic of China (PRC)'s (economic and strategic rise) should be restrained by the numerous restrictions that exist there, starting with its demographics. (Brookings, Michael E. O’Hanlon)

• Chinese police query Bain's Shanghai office staff:  Purportedly in response to worsening US/China trade relations, Chinese authorities are keeping close watch on American companies operating in China, even confiscating computers and phones. (Reuters)

POLITICS:

• Senators Introduce Bill Mandating Code of Ethics for Supreme Court: Sens. Angus King and Lisa Murkowski’s legislation would require the Supreme Court to create its own code of conduct within a year. (Wall Street Journal)

• Biden announces 2024 reelection bid: ‘Let’s finish this job’:  Framing his announced run around the legislative accomplishments of his first term and conservative challenges to reproductive rights and entitlements, President Biden formally enters the race for President without any serious primary challengers.  (Zeke Miller, AP)

• Tucker’s Demise: Tucker's defenestration occurred less than a week after Fox paid Dominion $787.5 million to settle their legal dispute, although it is still unclear what really transpired. Tucker had purposefully separated himself from the most harmful lies propagated by members of the Trump World, including Sidney Powell, and was actually not among the worst of the election skeptics.(Bulwark, Charlie Sykes)

• Disney sues DeSantis and oversight board after vote to nullify agreement with special taxing district: Arguing in federal court that Gov. DeSantis violated their free speech rights, Disney is taking on what they perceive as political retaliation by the Florida governor. (Eric Bradner and Steve Contorno, CNN)

• Writer E. Jean Carroll accuses Trump of rape in a testimony in a Manhattan Federal District Court Wednesday during the ongoing lawsuit. The former columnist, now 79, says he assaulted her in a department store dressing room nearly 30 years ago and has asked the jury to find him guilty of battery and defamation, Trump denies these accusations and was recently reprimanded by the judge for comments he made about the case on social media. (NYT)  

• South Carolina Senate again rejects near-total abortion ban: In a conservative state that has been expanding its patient base in a region where Republican politicians have typically restricted access to abortion, South Carolina senators rejected a bill that would have outlawed almost all abortions. (AP, James Pollard)

• Pence on the Stand: Mike Pence disregarded any attempts by his former boss to appeal, postpone, or otherwise impede. Pence testified before the grand jury the day after the federal appeals court rejected Donald Trump's attempts to have his testimony suppressed. He spent all day there. (Bulwark, Charlie Sykes)

WORLD:

• President Biden and Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will announce new steps they plan to take to try to deter North Korea from using nuclear weapons. Plans include the U.S. sending its first nuclear ballistic submarine to South Korea since the early 1980s. Yoon is in the U.S. this week on the first state visit from a South Korean leader in 12 years. (NPR , Anthony Kuhn)

• Allies resist US plan to ban all G7 exports to Russia: The EU and Japan have pushed back against a US proposal for G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia, as part of negotiations ahead of a summit of the world’s most advanced economies.(Financial Times)

• The Violence in Sudan Is Partly Our Fault: Many emphasized the reality that Sudan is still only four shaky years into establishing a civilian-led government after decades of military control when unrest broke out last Saturday. When the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which put an end to two decades of civil conflict in Sudan, did not bring an end to the conflict, the international community reverted to a pattern of perpetual peace talks. (NYT, Jacqueline Burns)

• Big Tech crackdown looms as EU, UK ready new rules: Newly proposed and recently enacted laws in European countries regulate tech companies and impose fines to a much greater degree than American laws. (AP)

• U.S. and South Korea Agree to Cooperate on Nuclear Weapons:  South Korea has extracted a commitment from the U.S. on a nuclear arms defense, averting concerns they would exit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to develop their own weapons. (David Sanger, NYTimes)

• In centennial year, Turkish voters will choose between Erdoğan’s conservative path and the founder’s modernist vision:  In two weeks, Turkey will either continue Erdoğan’s policies or elect a more liberal, pro-western alternative.  The humanitarian crisis stemming from a recent earthquake and rapid inflation inject uncertainty into election projects. (Ahmet Kuru, The Conversation)

RUSSIA/UKRAINE:

• Ukraine’s Zelenskiy upbeat after talk with China’s Xi: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had a “long and meaningful” phone call Wednesday, their first known contact since Russia invaded Ukraine over a year ago, and Beijing appointed an envoy to pursue a “political settlement.” (AP,David Rising and Joe McDonald)

Week of April 17-21

ECONOMY:

• The very real and very scary decline in credit: Although the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank did not completely destroy the American economy or cause widespread financial sector contagion, it did make it harder for small businesses to access credit, which led some economists to worry that a lending "crunch" could push the country into a recession later this year. That would be particularly bad news for President Joe Biden, who would also have to deal with House Republicans this summer, led by Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who are determined to get spending cutbacks in exchange for any raise in the federal debt ceiling. (Politico, Ben White)

• The economic impact of the opioid epidemic: There is compelling evidence that the opioid crisis has decreased American workers' ability to participate in the labor force. While some people's ability to work may be improved by the use of prescribed opioids for pain management, widespread opioid misuse has led to an epidemic of opioid use disorders, disruptions in the labor market, and unheard-of death rates. Opioid abuse can affect the availability of labor in a number of ways, including as absenteeism, an increase in workplace accidents, and absences from the workforce due to illness, jail, or death. (Brookings, Julia Paris et. al)

• House Group Releases bipartisan debt ceiling plan. House Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) led the Problem Solvers Caucus in a plan to suspend the debt ceiling until Dec 31, 2023. The plan was released as a one page summary and is rather vague. It requires three-quarters of the Problem Solvers Caucus to support the legislation for it to make it to the House floor, however it is unclear whether Speaker McCarthy will put it to a vote due to his own competing plan that he hopes to pass next week (Kapur and Tsirkin NBC)

• Speaker McCarthy unveils his $1.5 trillion debt ceiling package. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy released his plans for the fiscal year and adding to the debt ceiling. This also included a slew of budget cuts which would require a lot of negotiating with lawmakers. Some of the proposals in this plan include limiting spending growth to 1% each fiscal year, ending President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, repealing certain Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, and pulling back on unspent COVID funds. It is expected to be dead on arrival. (Axios Brufke)

POLITICS:

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Makes His White House Run Official. More than half a century after his father sought the White House to end a calamitous war in Vietnam and to salve the country’s racial wounds, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a presidential campaign built on re-litigating Covid-19 shutdowns and shaking Americans’ faith in science.  (NYT)

• 1 big thing: McCarthy's existential test: Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he will convene a debt-ceiling vote 100 days after taking the gavel, which might be the conclusion of his historic — and tumultuous — pursuit for the position. The House's vote "in the coming weeks" might decide whether the U.S. economy avoids a catastrophic default, in contrast to the speaker election in January, where GOP unity and McCarthy's personal goals were the main assets at issue. (Axios, Zachary Basu)

• There are more revelations about Clarence Thomas’s finances. We explain: In some ways, the controversy over Justice Clarence Thomas' acceptance of gifts from a wealthy Republican contributor — and Thomas' failure to declare them — is a political Rorschach test, but it could also have more significant political repercussions.Thomas has a lengthy history of acting in ways that many elected officials and other justices do not. He has repeatedly, and allegedly unintentionally, deceived the public about his financial situation. His wife Virginia, a conservative activist, has also taken actions that undermine the legitimacy of the court. (NYT, David Leondhart)

• “Fringe diplomat,” former New Mexico Governor, and this year’s American Spirit Awardee Bill Richardson has built up a reputation as being the go-to man for liberating American hostages held by hostile regimes abroad - even if it means occasionally causing friction with the US Government. Beginning in 1994 when then Congressman Richardson was asked to help secure the release of two American pilots during a visit to North Korea, he has continued to work tirelessly using his list of contacts and honed negotiating skills to work to free hostages from Myanmar to Russia through The Richardson Center, his nonprofit. (USA Today)

• The progressive firebrand winning over Republicans: Why would a self-proclaimed progressive support a staunch conservative? Well, that wasn't really shocking to many of Stoller's coworkers. Firebrand anti-monopoly activist Stoller promotes a fanatical focus on opposing corporate power: busting monopolies is the top priority, even if it necessitates applauding individuals who liberals see negatively. After all, Hawley had recently made history by becoming the first state attorney general to bring an antitrust lawsuit against Google. (Politico, Politico Magazine)

• 1 big thing: GOP's whip-count worries: House Republican leaders are starting to understand better where members stand on Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) debt ceiling proposal, which can only afford four GOP defections. Senior GOP sources stated "the whip count on this is not good." (Axios, Zachary Basu)

DOMESTIC ISSUES:

• America’s toxic mix of guns, concern over crime — and fear-mongering. It is not a secret that Americans own more guns than the residents of any other country on Earth. (Washington Post)

• Texas Senate approves bill that would ban diversity programs in public universities: The legislation heads to the Texas House, where members have been more muted about the proposal to disband offices, programs and training that foster diversity.

• The Iowa state senate voted to allow children to work longer hours and serve alcohol, the latest move by Republican-controlled state houses to combat a labor shortage by loosening child labor laws. The Iowa bill would expand the number of hours that children under 16 can work from four to six a day, allow minors to work in previously prohibited industries if they are part of a training program, and allow 16- and 17-year–olds to serve alcohol with a parent’s permission. (The Guardian)

• 16 year old Ralph Yarl, a black teenager was shot twice by “white male assailant” in Kansas City, MO: Yarl had rang the wrong doorbell when going to pick up his twin younger brothers – he was misdirected from a house about a block away. His aunt states that Yarl, an unarmed, unthreatening black teenager, parked in the driveway, rang the doorbell and was shot twice – once in the head, as he fell to the ground, and then the man shot him again. The police took him into custody and released him 24 hours later with NO charges — people argue that there was mismanagement or even concealment of evidence. The police states that the case is still under investigation. There were protests in KC. (Christine Hauser, NYT)

• Calls for stricter gun control intensified as multiple young Americans were shot this week in seemingly harmless interactions with strangers: As Ralph Yarl lay in the hospital in critical condition after being shot for ringing the wrong doorbell, 20 year old Kaylin Gillis was shot and killed while pulling out of a driveway after a wrong turn and two Texas cheerleaders were shot in their car after one mistakenly opened the door to the wrong vehicle. These three incidents involving a “shoot first ask questions later” mentality have drawn national attention and will surely lead to scrutiny towards stand your ground laws and the limits of self defense definitions as cases against the three shooters move forward. (USA Today)

• Biden Administration was warned of Migrant Child Labor violations, and ignored it: a Times investigation shows that thousands of the 250,000 yearly migrant children end up working in punishing jobs nationwide, violating child labor laws. After the initial investigation was released in February, the administration promised reform, but new evidence shows that the two departments (Human Health and Services, Department of Labor) passed on incomplete or lacking information about child labor, and it was not flagged as urgent. Generally, the administration knew, and while Biden had promised upon entering office to enforce a 2008 anti-trafficking law, the pandemic threw the system into disarray (Hannah Dreier, NYT)

• Grand Jury decides not to indict officers who shot and murdered Jayland Walker: last year, in Akron, Ohio, Jayland Walker was shot dozens of times by the police after an attempted traffic stop. Eight Akron police officers fired 94 shots at Mr. Walker, and he had 48 gunshot wounds. Only 7 of the 9 jurors needed to vote in favor of moving forward with charges against the officers (Jesus Jiménez and Michael Levenson, NYT)

• 1 big thing — Bud Light: Microcosm of America, 2023: The Great Bud Light Debacle of 2023 is one of the few occasions that captures the toxicity of American culture, politics, and society so accurately. After a conservative backlash rippled from bar to bar, one transgender social media influencer, Dylan Mulvaney, drastically changed beer sales and stock prices — practically overnight. (Axios, Mike Allen)

• How a health equity tool might backfire: In order to provide physicians and medical groups more money to treat underrepresented populations with increased medical needs, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services introduced a new payment model this year. The Area Deprivation Index is used by the government in part to modify provider compensation. But the ADI metric can give inaccurate results in regions of the nation where extreme wealth and poverty coexist. Even in places with a high prevalence of poverty and poor health outcomes, home prices tend to be greater in metropolitan areas. (Politico, Krista Mahr & Daniel Payne)

• DeSantis escalates battle with Disney with prison proposal. Florida Governor and potential Republican Presidential candidate Ron DeSantis is challenging Disney World again after the theme park found an obscure law that allowed the company to remain self-governing. DeSantis’s proposal would be to build either a competing theme park or potentially a state penitentiary on a 40 mile plot of land bordering Walt Disney World. (Leonard Insider)

• The pessimist’s case on the state of American democracy: With candidates interested in election conspiracies standing for the positions that actually oversee elections, the 2022 election was heralded as a turning point for American democracy. The highest level of the pyramid—secretaries of state, who oversee elections in the majority of states—received the most attention. In competitive states across the nation, a number of Trump-aligned election skeptics ran for that position. (Politico, Zach Montellaro)

• 1 big thing: Politics on campus: Politics is becoming a bigger consideration for prospective college students when picking where to attend college. According to a recent research, a quarter of college-bound high school graduates said they would avoid attending a school in a state whose politics or policies they detest. Americans are becoming more polarized as a result of their political preferences in housing and social circles, a trend that starts early in life. (Axios, Mike Allen)

NATIONAL SECURITY:

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered officials to launch the first spy satellite as planned, saying that boosting reconnaissance capabilities is a priority to counter "threats" from the United States and South Korea, state media reported. (Reuters)

WORLD:

• New Coral Reef was discovered off coast of Galapagos Islands. The home of many ecological wonders, Ecuador’s Galapagos Islands, the environmental ministry stated they discovered a new coral reef in the waters of the island abundant with marine life. This is wonderful news to ecologists and marine scientists because many coral reefs have been dying due to climate change and water pollution (Reuters)

• India Is Passing China in Population. Can Its Economy Ever Do the Same: (Mujib Mashal and Alex Travelli, NYTimes)

• Sudan’s military leaders ‘never had the intention of relinquishing power’: For the past week, Sudan has been engaged in conflict over key locations like airports and its military command center. In an effort to promote a 72-hour truce, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken met with both generals on Thursday. A three-day ceasefire was also requested by the U.N. Chief. (Politico, Ari Hawkins)

CHINA:

• China’s economy is growing after Q1, with expectations that growth will continue through Q2. At the end of the first economic quarter, China’s economy grew much faster than expected. The country’s exports surged in March after the lifting of several COVID curbs in December of 2022. It’s estimated that Chinese policymakers have contributed around $18 trillion to keep unemployment under control in the country. (Yao and Cash Reuters)

• 3 Nuclear Superpowers, Rather Than 2, Usher In a New Strategic Era: China takes steps to grow its nuclear arsenal, raising the importance of new non-proliferation treaties for the next U.S. administration. (David E. Sanger, William J. Broad and Chris Buckley, NYTimes)

• 1 big thing: Yellen's new strategy in U.S.-China economic diplomacy: This morning, Yellen made a strong statement regarding the relationship between the US and China: Real and continuing tensions exist between the two superpowers, but this shouldn't prevent the two countries from having fruitful economic cooperation. The Biden administration is attempting to gauge the prospect of finding areas of modest, practical collaboration after a few months (and years) of chilly ties between the two largest economies in the world. (Axios, Neil Irwin & Courtenay Brown)

RUSSIA/UKRAINE:

• Brazil faces backlash from west over stance on Ukraine: US accuses Lula of ‘parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda’. (Financial Times)

• South Korea might extend its support for Ukraine beyond humanitarian and economic aid if it comes under a large-scale civilian attack, President Yoon Suk Yeol said, signaling a shift in his stance against arming Ukraine for the first time. In an interview with Reuters ahead of his state visit to the U.S. next week, Yoon said his government has been exploring how to help defend and rebuild Ukraine, just as South Korea received international assistance during the 1950-53 Korean War. (Reuters)

• NATO strategy has changed following Russian invasion: in the event of Russian threat towards NATO members, instead of just waiting for American and allied troops, mostly based far away, NATO is now deploying a battalion of multinational troops to 8 countries bordering Russia — a tactic called deterrence by denial. This shift has revitalized NATO into the capable, war-fighting alliance last seen during the Cold War (Steven Erlanger, NYT)

• Moscow City Court convicts Vladimir Kara-Murza, Kremlin Critic, of 25 years in prison for treason: he was convicted of treason for his harsh criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, alongside many other political activists. His supporters say the intensity of his sentence is reminiscent of Stalin. The Russian Foreign Ministry released a statement that “traitors and betrayers” “will get what they deserve.” The trial has been condemned by human rights organizations worldwide (Ivan Nechepurenko, NYT)

ISRAEL:

• Israeli Defense Minister warns that the country must be ready for a multi-front war against Iran and its proxies. Referencing Hezbollah and other Iranian-funded militias and military groups, Yoav Gallant said Thursday that the IDF are no longer in an era of easily manageable limited conflicts but in light of increasing funding and boldness from Iran that concerns of a more expansive military conflict are only growing and that the country needs to be ready (Rina Bassist, Al-Monitor)

Week of April 10-17

ECONOMY:

• 1 big thing: Price cap on Russian oil seems to be working: Although Russia continues to export petroleum, its oil profits have plummeted, achieving the dual objectives of the energy price ceiling that the U.S. administration established last year. Russia's status as a significant supplier of oil to international markets was considered as a barrier to the West's capacity to punish Moscow once it began its war on Ukraine in 2022. (Axios, Matt Philips)

• The dirty secret about bank holding company regulation: The Federal Reserve is responsible for overseeing the link between the bank and connected entities that are part of the parent holding company because bank holding companies are subject to its regulation. A dirty little secret about what holding company regulation frequently comprises is revealed by the demise of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): not that much. (Brookings, Aaron Klein)

• American offices are half-empty. That could be the next big risk for banks: Analysts predict the downturn in office utilization will impact the larger economy as commercial property values dropped 5.7% as a sector in the last year. (Julia Horowitz, CNN)

• Fed Officials Signal Divide Over Whether to Hike Rates Again:  Following a quarter percentage point raise in interest rates in March, officials are split on whether to go further to quell inflation.  (Catarina Saraiva and Jonnelle Marte, Bloomberg)

• March inflation report: What’s getting better and what’s getting worse.  Overall inflation in March hit 5.2%, which is down from 6% during February when comparing prices to 12 months prior. Certain consumer products such as automobiles have retreated in costs, which has contributed to the current inflation gauge. (Courtenay Brown, Axios )

• Renting and housing politics has caused a divide among suburbs: In the housing market, there has been an increase in building new living complexes and the costs of rentals has drastically increased over the past few years. In response, renters have been moving in with additional people, sometimes into single-family homes in the suburbs. There have been opponents to these moves, but there are several municipalities that are loosening the regulations on the maximum number of renters and zoning to alleviate the financial burden of renting nowadays. (Caitlin Owens, Axios)

• US Producer Prices Fell in March by Most Since Start of Pandemic: Gasoline costs have dropped significantly this month, bringing down the overall PPO by 0.5%.  However, economists suggest there is more to do on inflation.  (Reade Pickert, Bloomberg)

• The trillion-dollar bank: Making IBRD fit for purpose in the 21st century: In order to reduce extreme poverty and increase shared prosperity, the World Bank Board has recommended the following mission statement: "To foster sustainable, inclusive, and resilient development." According to the strategy, the World Bank Group will "continue to support countries' efforts to achieve the SDG goals while deepening long-standing support for three global challenges that have gained more attention in recent years." (Brookings, Homi Kharas)

NATIONAL SECURITY:

• Playbook: Anatomy of a megaleak: Only now, as the Biden administration scrambles to respond to rising inquiries over the breach and its ramifications, is the full scope of the harm becoming apparent after news of what looks to be the largest public leak of U.S. intelligence in a decade broke over the holiday weekend. (Politico, Eugene Daniels et. al)

• An arrest in the leak case On Thursday afternoon, Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air k, was taken into custody in a single-family residence. He oversaw a Discord group that posted the information when he was stationed at Fort Bragg, where the leak occurred. His identity was originally made public by the New York Times, which cited two American sources who indicated that investigators hoped to speak with Texeira about the leak. (Politico, Matt Berg)

• Leaked Documents and Accusations of U.S. Spying Spark Outrage in Seoul: Opposition lawmakers in South Korea criticized the leaked Pentagon documents as a major security breach and possible evidence of U.S. spying as the government of President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday sought to downplay the disclosures and defend Seoul’s alliance with Washington. (Choe Sung-Hun, NYT)

WORLD

• French President Macron receives chilly response following visit to China: he concluded a 3-day visit and was seen as cozying up to China in an effort to join the great powers. He embraced a “global strategic partnership with China,” and now finds himself more isolated than ever from the EU and his citizens as he faces protests at home (Roger Cohen, NYT)

• Japan’s population drops by half a million in 2022:  Japan’s government is examining solutions to a declining birth rate as an increasingly unbalanced population pyramid portends upheaval to pension programs and healthcare. (Jessie Yeung and Moeri Karasawa, CNN)

• Russia's Navalny has mystery ailment which may be slow poisoning - spokeswoman:  President Putin’s main opposition in Russia may not survive his prison term as allegations of mistreatment and even poisoning are leveled against the Kremlin. (Guy Faulconbridge, Andrew Osborn and Filipp Lebedev, Reuters)

UKRAINE:

• Why Biden hasn’t loaned weapons to Ukraine: Since Russia's invasion, the U.S. has provided approximately $35 billion in security support for Kiev, all of which came from the reduction of military stockpiles or planned manufacturing of new weaponry. Yet, Congress also granted Biden Lend-Lease authority last year, enabling the United States to avoid cumbersome red tape and give Ukraine weapons in exchange for a future payment. Because of the congressionally approved fund that hasn't yet been zeroed out, the administration has so far decided against using that option. (Politico, Alexander Ward et. al)

• The Latest: War in Ukraine: Russia Moves to Tighten Rules on Avoiding a Military Draft: Russian lawmakers voted in favor of new measures that would make it much harder to avoid a troop mobilization. (NYT) B

• The new law would bar anyone conscripted for the draft from leaving the country: it has set Russians on edge, apparently, as they worry about a new round of drafts following the chaotic draft of last September. The government, however, states that they are not planning another round. (Ivan Nechepurenko, Neil MacFarquhar and Vjosa Isai, NYT)

CHINA:

• Two prominent Chinese civil rights lawyers jailed for more than a decade for subversion: In a secretive trial, China has given more than a decade of prison to two citizens engaged in advocacy against Chinese authoritarianism. (Nectar Gan, CNN)

ISRAEL: 

• Israel Bars Jews From Visiting Temple Mount Until End of Ramadan, Netanyahu Announces Citing Security Concerns: Amidst an escalating conflict on multiple fronts, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is potentially setting up a confrontation with far-right partners in his government by temporarily blocking demonstrations from taking place on the Temple Mount.  (Jonathan Lis, Nir Hasson, Jack Khoury, Josh Breiner, Haaretz)   

DOMESTIC ISSUES:

• “The number of U.S. kids dying by gunfire keeps rising. Gun deaths among America's kids rose 50% in the past two years, according to a new Pew Research Center report last week. More children and teens were killed by guns in 2021 than in any year since 1999, the first year the CDC began tracking the data”, “...While the majority of adult gun deaths are by suicide, children and teens killed by gunfire are more likely to die by homicide (60%).”... There were 48,830 gun deaths of Americans in 2021. That was up 23% from 2019 and the highest yearly total on record.”  (Erica Pandey, Axios/Pew Research Center )  

• “2022 marked the most violent year in schools — with 46 shootings — since 1999, . The most recent shooting took four lives at the Covenant School in Nashville two weeks ago.”  (Washington Post)

• BIG THINK: The US is leaving millions behind: American exceptionalism needs to change by 2030: When a number of other concerns, such as poverty in America, are evaluated, the discrepancies not only become more pronounced, but the image that is revealed is only unusual in highly worrisome ways, with development being incredibly uneven and poverty rates remaining unchanged for decades. Notwithstanding its size, military might, and excellence in higher education, the United States shares more traits than not with nations that the World Bank classifies as "less developed." (Brookings, Sarah E. Mendelson)

• “America's life expectancy has been falling — from 79 in 2019 to 76 in 2021 — driven by COVID, gun violence and drug overdoses.  Compare that to a life expectancy of 83 in Australia and 80 in Britain. Older U.S. adults have similar life expectancies to their counterparts in other wealthy countries. The high number of young deaths in the U.S. is bringing down the country's overall life expectancy.  One in 25 American kindergartners won't make it to their 40th birthday.  ("Why are Americans dying so young?"Financial Times) 

• Louisville Bank Shooting: on Monday, a 25-year old man opened fire in the downtown Louisville, KY, bank. He was killed by the police in the bank, and seems to be a previous bank employee, although the police have not stated a specific motive yet (Amanda Holpuch, NYT)

• 5 Killed and 9 injured:  The shooter, identified as a 25-year-old male bank employee, was live streaming the attack online and was killed in a police shootout, officials said. Louisville mayor Craig Greenberg addressed the media with a bold message, "This isn't about partisan politics. This is about life and death.” (Mark Morales, CNN)

•  One man was killed and three other people were critically injured Tuesday in a shooting outside of a funeral for a homicide victim in the nation’s capital, according to police. (NBC)

• Biden Administration proposes cutting water to states: The Colorado River is shrinking — and it provides water to almost 40 million Americans and 2 states in Mexico. The Biden Administration is proposing evenly cutting water to California, Nevada and Arizona by as much as ¼. The move is still being debated between the states. (Christopher Flavelle, NYT)

• Biden to announce Medicaid, ObamaCare access for DACA recipients:  The administration will extend coverage to undocumented workers who arrived in the U.S. as children, helping the 600,000 recipients potentially gain coverage.   (RAFAEL BERNAL, The Hill)

• Schumer lays groundwork for Congress to regulate AI:  New regulations being considered by Senate Democrats center on transparency for AI programs. (Andrew Solender and Ashley Gold, Axios)

• You couldn’t say to the Egyptians: hold the revolution’: Slaughter is best known for exposing the frequently insurmountable challenges that women, especially those who are responsible for caring for young children or elderly parents, confront while attempting to balance their high-level professional professions with their family lives without becoming exhausted. (Politico, Phelim Kine)

• Multi-front battle over abortion intensifies as Florida joins Republican-led states approving near-total bans: Florida Governor Ron Desantis has signed a 6-week abortion ban into law.  Multiple states have enacted similar legislation since last summer’s Roe overturn.  (Nancy Cordes, Analisa Novak, CBS)

POLITICS:

• 400 executives of drug companies in US condemn judge’s ruling against FDA and mifepristone: Judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas invalidated FDA approval for the abortion pill, which has been approved for 23 years. The drug company execs wrote that this overturn of an FDA approval – the first of its kind – places the entire biopharma industry in doubt, and plan on placing their resources behind ensuring that the ruling is overturned (Pam Belluck and Christina Jewett, NYT)

• Abortion pill aftershocks: The Department of Justice argued in a 49-page emergency motion that U.S. District Court Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk violated precedent when he said the plaintiffs, doctors and organizations representing them, had standing because they might someday treat patients experiencing side effects brought on by the pills. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals was asked to keep the ruling against the abortion pill, mifepristone, on hold. (Politico, Daniel Payne & Krista Mahr)

• Manhattan DA sues Rep. Jordan over Trump indictment inquiry:  Fighting subpoenas issued from the House Judiciary Committee, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg has become a target for the Trump-aligned contingent in Congress. (MICHAEL R. SISAK and FARNOUSH AMIRI, AP)

• Manhattan DA sues Rep. Jim Jordan to block GOP inquiry into Trump case: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg filed a lawsuit Tuesday against Republican House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, asking a court to block elements of the congressional inquiry into his case against former President Donald Trump. Calling it an “unprecedented brazen and unconstitutional attack” of an ongoing investigation. (Rebecca Shabad, NBC)

• DNC 2024 to be hosted in Chicago: The DNC for the 2024 Presidential Election has been announced and it is taking place in Chicago! According to Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, President Biden told the governor that Chicago would be “his convention city” prior to a trip the President took to Ireland. In addition, Pritzker has pledged to finance the convention through fundraising and his own personal finances, which gave the city’s bid an edge compared to the competition. (Cohen and Zelany, CNN) K

• South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott takes a significant step toward a presidential run: Scott’s exploratory committee is permitted to raise funds for his prospective campaign.  The committee has released a campaign video announcement and plans to visit early primary and caucus states.  (Dustin Jones, NPR)

• After calls to resign, Feinstein seeks Judiciary replacement: Democratic members of congress have begun calling for Senator Dianne Feinstein to step back as her absence from committee is slowing the confirmation of Judges.  Feinstein has signaled she will cooperate, although leaving the door open for a possible return.  (Michael R. Blood, AP)

• PBS leaving Twitter after NPR departure: PBS and NPR have disengaged from Twitter following a high-profile dispute with Elon Musk over a ‘government-funded’ tag, which has been received as an attack on the integrity of NPR as an independent news organization.   (Dominick Mastrangelo, The Hill)

• Ron DeSantis’ abortion gamble: On Thursday, the Florida legislature decided to outlaw most abortions performed after six weeks of pregnancy. The measure, which Gov. Ron DeSantis signed on Thursday, would change his state's reputation as a haven for abortions in the South and prevent thousands of people from accessing the operation who would otherwise travel from nearby states. (Politico, Daniel Payne & Krista Mahr)

• Details from the GOP’s debt talks: The pressure on Republicans to present their opening offer in debt-limit negotiations with President Joe Biden and Senate Democrats is greater than ever as the House GOP gets ready to reconvene after a two-week break. But make no mistake, the structure that is currently in circulation is still far from being completed. (Politico, Katherine Tully-McManus)

• 1 big thing: Inside the GOP's "weaponization" war: Even as Democrats and federal agencies allege wrongdoing, the House GOP's top two investigative panels have issued almost thirty subpoenas 100 days after taking control of the chamber. Republicans pledged to probe the alleged "weaponization" of government and hold the Biden administration accountable during the campaign; this conservative goal has gained importance in the wake of former President Trump's indictment. (Axios, Zachary Basu)

• Jury selection starts for Fox–Dominion trial. More than 1,600 notices have been sent to the good folks of New Castle County, Delaware, to establish a jury for the upcoming trial between Fox and Dominion Voting Systems, the voting-machine maker suing the network for defamation. The $1.6 billion showdown is the most significant media case in years, and it’s also extremely politically charged—so, finding an impartial jury could be a challenge. Opening statements for the trial, which is set to last six weeks, start on Monday. (MB —Neal Freyman, Cassandra Cassidy, Matty Merritt)

Week of April 1 -10

ECONOMY

• American Inequality is (Finally) Lessening -”After decades in which the gap between the richest and poorest Americans grew by leaps and bounds, the strange rebound from the pandemic has led to something different: a slow reduction in inequality across the economy. Incomes of people in the bottom half of income distribution grew by 4.5% in the last calendar year, much faster than the 1.2% average income growth of all Americans, according to Realtime Inequality, a tool launched by economists at the University of California. Berkeley. ( TIME)

• The World Bank published a gloomy report on the global economy given inflation pressures, financial instability, and worsening demographics. “The Bank diagnoses "a lost decade in the making" — unless globalization is re-embraced.” ”The Bank is effectively doubling down on the neoliberal view that economic growth is the most effective way to achieve its goals - "eliminating extreme poverty, reducing inequality, achieving higher growth, [and] combating climate change,".  (Axios, Courtenay Brown)  

• Globalization is in retreat; we've now entered a new world where deep geopolitical tensions get surfaced in protectionist trade policies, Neoliberalism is dead. “Economists and globalists are, predictably enough, convinced this is very bad news. … Economist Adam Posen has written an unflinching and much-read takedown in Foreign Policy of post-neoliberal U.S. economic policy.  Posen cites "more than two centuries of well-researched history of foreign economic policies" in defense of his claim that decoupling the U.S. from China is deeply misguided and counterproductive.”  (Axios, Neil Irwin)  

• “Biden administration officials show every sign of having moved on from “economic growth” is the most effective goal and measure of progress.  National security adviser Jake Sullivan said at a Hewlett Foundation event last weekend that he was focused on the American middle class, as "the foundation of our capacity to project strength in the world, just as it is fundamental to the sustainment of our economy."  (Axios, Hans Nichols)

• Mayor Eric Adams orders harsh new round of budget cuts: Mayor Eric Adams asked the NYPD, as well as almost every other city agency, to cut their budgets by 4% in the next fiscal year. The NY Dept of Education and CUNY received letters asking for 3% cuts. These are the 3rd round of cuts requested.. (Dana Rubinstein, NYT)

• 10 industries where job openings are declining: Job openings for all industry sectors are fewer than last year.  White collar jobs represent the greatest loss in new openings, likely as a response to economic uncertainty. (Emily Peck, Axios)

• Job growth totals 236,000 in March, near expectations as hiring pace slows:  A strong March Jobs Report reflects a measured approach to managing inflation as unemployment inches down to 3.5%. (Jeff Cox, CNBC)

• U.S. economy adds 236,000 jobs in March as labor market stays strong: Payrolls increased by 236,000 in March, while the unemployment rate moved down to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. This indicates that the U.S. labor market is continuing to add jobs at a rapid rate. Notwithstanding the Federal Reserve's vigorous efforts to slow the economy, employers continue to have a high need for workers. (Axios, Courtenay Brown)

POLITICS

• Trump faces setbacks in other probes as NY case proceeds following his indictment in Manhattan on 34 counts, Trump faces multiple legal troubles that show how vulnerable Trump is and may hamper his chances of being elected in 2024. These trials range from the mishandling of classified documents, obstruction of the investigation into said mishandling, and his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. (Eric Tucker, Associated Press)

• The New York presiding judge in the case against Trump, Juan Merchan, in response to online threats from Trump, told Trump’s lawyers to notify him to be reminded not to make statements that “incite violence or civil unrest.”). (Jonah E. Bromwich, William K. Rashbaum, Ben Protess and Maggie Haberman, NYT)

• Key GOP House figures in Trump’s orbit are also pushing for probes of Biden and Bragg and targeting the "weaponization" of law enforcement against conservatives. They include House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) t Jordan and Stefanik are also members of a new Judiciary subcommittee and their committees have already tried — so far unsuccessfully — to get documents and testimony from Bragg's probe into hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels.  (Axios, Sophia Cai)

• Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas has reportedly been accepting gifts from Republican megadonor Harlan Crow for decades—and never disclosed it: SCOTUS Justice Thomas has come under scrutiny due to a ProPublica report on his accepting trips beyond ethics guidelines. (Alison Durkee, Forbes)

• Janet Protasiewicz wins in consequential Wisconsin Supreme Court race: Protasiewicz’s victory signifies an important win as she will now be likely to reverse the state’s ban on abortion and end the use of gerrymandered maps. She defeated Daniel Kelly, who was formerly a Conservative judge on the bench, by 10 percentage points. (Reid J. Epstein, NYT)

• Brandon Johnson elected mayor of Chicago: he was previously a county commissioner and teacher’s union organizer, and has called for a vast expansion of social programs in Chicago, as well as new taxes. Johnson beat his opponent Paul Vallas, who has more conservative views on crime and education. He follows incumbent mayor Lori Lightfoot, who failed to qualify for the runoff election. (Julie Bosman and Mitch Smith, NYT)

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. files paperwork to run for president as a Democrat: Anti-vaccine activist RFK Jr. is challenging President Biden for the 2024 Democratic nomination (Rashard Rose, Eric Bradner and David Wright, CNN)

• Powerful Republican lawmakers have rushed to endorse former President Trump for president in '24 before the Republican field has even formed.  Trump has been endorsed by five GOP senators and 37 House Republicans — including more than one-third of the GOP members on Judiciary and Oversight, which Trump is pushing to investigate President Biden and Manhattan's District Attorney Alvin Bragg. 

• Tennessee’s Republican-led House expels 2 Democratic lawmakers over gun reform protest, fails in bid to oust a third: Following a party-line vote, two Tennessee Democrats leading protests in response to inaction on recent school-shooting deaths were punished for causing delays in the statehouse chamber. (Dakin Andone, Ryan Young, Amy Simonson and Steve Almasy, CNN)

• Playbook: McCarthy searches for a scapegoat: Republicans are unable to agree on a fiscal plan in the face of criticism from Biden and a looming debt ceiling deadline. Some people worry that they might not even produce a budget, much less one that can pass or balance over the course of ten years. McCarthy seems to be searching for a scapegoat rather than taking responsibility for his mistakes. (Politico, Rachel Bade)

THE WORLD

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

• “Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels,“ …“The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.” (New York Times)

• Ukraine has expressed willingness to discuss the future of Russian-occupied Crimea through diplomatic means, hinting at progress towards peace talks . Prior to this announcement by one of Zelenskyy’s top advisors, the president had stated that Kyviv would rule out all peace talks until Russian forces completely withdrew from Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders, including the highly contested peninsula captured and annexed in 2014. (Financial Times)

• Pro-war Russian blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was killed in a targeted bomb explosion in a St. Petersberg cafe. One suspect is in custody, Ukraine rejects Russian accusations that it influenced the assassination and a small, anti-Putin group named the National Republican Army has claimed responsibility. (BBC)

• ‘He’s a war criminal’: Elite Putin security officer defects: A high-ranking officer of Putin’s elite personal security service has defected from Russia, citing Putin’s war and the alleged crimes committed by Russian forces as his justification. Said officier painted a picture of an increasingly paranoid Putin and a country steeped in corruption and propaganda. (Erika Kinetz, Associated Press)

• U.N. Human Rights Council extends Ukraine inquiry into crimes since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Last month, the probe stated that crimes committed by Russian forces could be crimes against humanity. (Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber and Emma Farge, Reuters)

• Ukraine trains 40,000 storm brigade troops for counter-offensive: Ukraine is training eight new brigades that are to be used in a Ukrainian counter-offensive later this year. These units will be bolstered by army regulars and Western battle tanks. (Sergiy Karazy and Anna Dabrowska, Reuters)

• French President Macron meets with Chinese President Xi in Beijing Thursday to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine (follow up with Friday)

• With lavish treatment of Macron, China's Xi woos France to "counter" U.S.: Some observers believe that China's President Xi Jinping's extravagant greeting of French President Emmanuel Macron during his state visit is an indication of Beijing's escalating campaign to win over important allies within the European Union in order to challenge the United States. Rare are Xi's interactions with foreign leaders in this way. According to diplomats, it highlights the significance Beijing places on its relationship with a significant EU member as it seeks assistance against the U.S. (Reuters, Michel Rose & James Pomfret)

EUROPE/RUSSIA

• Finland doubling NATO’s border with Russia in blow to Putin: Finland’s joining NATO as 31st member, has dealt another blow to one of the goals of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, namely the westward expansion of NATO. Finland joining NATO doubles NATO’s border with Russia and increases NATO preparedness in the Baltic Sea. (Lorne Cook, Associated Press)

• The blow is particularly significant as Finland has one of Western Europe’s strongest militaries: its artillery forces are the largest and best equipped out of all European NATO members, although its new government (still in the works after an election on Sunday) must decide whether to allow NATO troops or other NATO members’ nuclear weapons in Finland. (Steven Erlanger, NYT)

• Russia will move its tactical nuclear weapons close to the western borders of Belarus, one of many escalatory moves Russia has done in recent months. Belarusian President Lukashenko would also allow Russia to put nuclear ICBMs if needed. (Reuters)

CHINA

• To counter China, US trade rep seeks closer ties to allies: U.S. official signals intent to reduce trade dependence on China for high-tech supply chain and agriculture through altered protections and agreements. (Paul Wiseman and Josh Boak, AP)

• US House leader Kevin McCarthy and Taiwan president meet as China protests: The meeting was a show of friendship and unity between Taiwan and the United States, stressing the need to maintain the status quo between China and Taiwan. (Associated Press)

• Macron woos Xi:  The Chinese president will receive French President Emmanuel Macron for a state visit in Beijing and Guangzhou. (Politico, Stuart Lau)

• ‘I don’t talk about North Korea so much these days’: Cho Taeyong, the new director of national security for South Korea, speaks with representatives from Washington, D.C., about how shared fears about China's expanding economic, diplomatic, and military influence have come to dominate U.S.-South Korean relations. (Politico, Phelim Klein)

ISRAEL

• Israel strikes Lebanon and Gaza after major rocket attack: The Israeli military engaged Hamas militants in response to rockets Israel alleges they fired from Lebanon. (Lucy Williamson & David Gritten, BBC)

• Violence at holy Jerusalem site raises tension over holidays: Conflict between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian militants continues through the muslim holy month of Ramadan. (ISABEL DEBRE and FARES AKRAM, AP)

• Israel Gets Assistance From Various Countries to Restore Regional Calm, but Nothing Is Yet Guaranteed: France and Egypt engaged their diplomats in ending the hostilities between Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon commenced this week. (Jonathan Lis, Haaretz)

• Israelis continue protests over judicial overhaul plans: For the thirteenth week in a row, hundreds of thousands of Israelis have demonstrated in Tel Aviv against a divisive judicial reform that the government has since halted while discussions with party representatives are taking place. (Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera and other news agencies)

MIDDLE EAST

• OPEC cuts oil output, raising price to $80 barrel:: OPEC+, which includes Russia, agreed Sunday to further decrease crude oil production by 3.7%, further increasing fuel prices. Saudi Arabia, a leading member of OPEC+, states that this cut was meant to ensure market stability, but many analysts believe that OPEC+ is both punishing short sellers and seeking to put a price floor on oil prices. (Reuters)

• Middle East-China intervenes: Saudis, Iranians to reopen embassies, ease travel: In an agreement mediated by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran would reopen embassies in their respective capitals. Additionally, they would study the possibility of resuming flights between the two nations and easing the visa process between the rival countries. (Associated Press)

• Twenty months after Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended the legislature in what amounted to an auto-coup, his autocratic authority is becoming more and more entrenched, with dozens of prominent opposition leaders being detained and dissidents being tried in military courts. Saied has adopted a North African interpretation of the racist "great replacement" notion and has also attacked Black migrants living in Tunisia. (Foreign Affairs, Shadi Hamid)

U.S. DOMESTIC ISSUES

• “The ostensibly apolitical group No Labels, which backs Republicans and conservative Democrats, is getting ready to support a third-party presidential ticket in 2024. According to the group, the ticket serves as "insurance" in the event that the main parties nominate individuals that the majority of Americans do not wish to support. Yet, No Label's plan would most certainly result in helping Trump win the presidency again in 2024. (Popular Information, Judd Legum, Rebecca Crosby) JB

• In pristine Alaska, an oil giant prepares to drill for decades: Permission from the Biden administration to expand drilling portends conflict with anti-fossil fuel activists. (Lisa Friedman and Clifford Krauss, NYTimes)

• A Utah law that would prohibit abortion clinics was challenged in state court. Pro-choice advocates argue that the law effectively removes access to abortion within the state. (Sam Metz, Associated Press)

• Virginia teacher shot by 6-yr-old student sues school leaders for $40 million: A Virginia teacher shot by a 6-year old student sued school administrators, and the former superintendent and principal for negligence, stating that they ignored warnings from staff and students of the student having a gun. (Andrew Hay, Reuters)

• States now have the authority to terminate Medicaid coverage for anyone who does not match the pre-pandemic eligibility rules, which are mostly based on income, as the emergency measures Congress put in place to extend medical coverage at the outset of the pandemic have expired. In the 10 states that have declined to expand Medicaid, as many as 15 million of the 85 million individuals who are already covered by it could lose their insurance. (Letters From an American, Heather Cox Richardson)

• The US Sentencing Commission approved new guidelines that would expand the ability for federal inmates’ ability to qualify for compassionate release for prison. Guidelines would also allow an inmate eligible for compassionate release if he or she becomes the victim of sexual assault by a corrections officer. (Sarah N. Lynch and Nate Raymond, Reuters) 

• Johnson & Johnson reaches $8.9 billion talc settlement for 70,000 plaintiffs who claim the company’s talc products caused cancer. The settlement still needs to be approved pending bankruptcy filings for the subsidiary which would distribute the settlement as well as convince the plaintiffs to accept the settlement itself. (Tiffany Hsu, NYT)

• Curbing Covid’s assault on kids’ mental health: The US reaction to the pandemic may be coming to an end, but the number of kids receiving treatment for mental health issues isn't. After enduring a terrible event like the pandemic, which upended their lives, children could not exhibit mental disease signs like anxiety or depression for a while, according to pediatric experts. (Politico, Daniel Payne & Krista Mahr)

• 1 big thing: Supreme Court fight reignites: Democrats have reacted angrily to a bombshell report into Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas' connections to a billionaire Republican donor, calling for Thomas' resignation, his impeachment, and significant changes to the nation's highest court. According to flight logs, internal documents, and staff interviews, the conservative justice has accepted lavish visits from Dallas real estate mogul Harlan Crow for more than 20 years without declaring them. (Axios, Zachary Basu & Andrew Solender)

Week of Mar 26- Mar 31

ACCOUNTABILITY

• The first indictment against a former US president occurred Thursday afternoon as Donald Trump faces criminal charges voted on by a Manhattan grand jury. The exact charges are still undisclosed but Trump will soon be facing a high-stakes trial. The charges stem from a hush-money scheme around Trump’s involvement with a former adult film star.  He is expected to arrive Tuesday to appear in a New York court for his formal arrest. With the outcome of the trial and the strength of the case uncertain, it is difficult to predict whether this will help or hurt Trump in his bid for the presidency in 2024 - or whether it will have any measurable impact at all. (Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight)

• U.S. Democracy Is Tested: PAST TCG SPEAKER Peter Baker: “For the first time in American history, a former president of the United States has been indicted on criminal charges….  “So many unthinkable firsts have occurred since Donald J. Trump was elected to the White House in 2016, so many inviolable lines have been crossed, so many unimaginable events have shocked the world that it is easy to lose sight of just how astonishing this particular moment really is.” “For all of the focus on the tawdry details of the case or its novel legal theory or its political impact, the larger story is of a country heading down a road it has never traveled before, one fraught with profound consequences for the health of the world’s oldest democracy. For more than two centuries, presidents have been held on a pedestal, even the ones swathed in scandal, declared immune from prosecution while in office and, effectively, even afterward.”  “No longer. That taboo has been broken. A new precedent has been set. Will it tear the country apart, as some feared about putting a former president on trial after Watergate? Will it be seen by many at home and abroad as victor’s justice akin to developing nations where former leaders are imprisoned by their successors? Or will it become a moment of reckoning, a sign that even someone who was once the most powerful person on the planet is not above the law?”  (NYTimes, Peter Baker)

ECONOMY

• The Fed’s obsession with phantom inflation might destroy a strong economy:  Tragically, the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors and its chair, Jay Powell, keep desperately digging in their pathological efforts to bury the phantom of inflation.  Fed heads are haunted by their fellow economists’ criticism that they were slow to react to out-of-control “transitory” inflation in 2021—when they were frozen in an obsolete 2020 drive to turbocharge economic stimulus out of COVID—but amazingly they are now making the same mistake once again, trying to fight last year’s war, by staying focused on the inflation boogeyman while missing the new and more potent economic dangers lingering on the horizon—namely, economic recession, a hard landing, and financial panic.  The impacts of Fed oversteering are felt disproportionately and inequitably by certain sectors; education, healthcare, and to some extent government are basically impervious to rising rates, comprising over half of GDP; so disinflation has to come from cyclical sectors such as services, manufacturing, and housing/construction; and already, as the third author warned on CNBC, some sectors such as the $10 trillion commercial real estate space are poised for complete havoc.  (Jeffrey Sonnenfeld , Jeremy Siegel and Barry Sternlicht, TIME)

• BIG THINK: The dollar is our superpower, and Russia and China are threatening it, according to   Past TCG Awardee Fareed Zakaria: “The most interesting outcome of the three-day summit between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping? The world’s second-largest economy and its largest energy exporter are actively trying to dent the dollar’s dominance as the anchor of the international financial system. Will they succeed?  Sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine combined with Washington’s increasingly confrontational approach to China have created a perfect storm in which both Russia and China are accelerating efforts to diversify away from the dollar. Their central banks are keeping less of their reserves in dollars, and most trade between them is being settled in the yuan. They are also, as Putin noted, making efforts to get other countries to follow suit… Could the currency suffer weakness by a thousand cuts? That seems a more likely scenario. The author and investor Ruchir Sharma points out, “Right now, for the first time in my memory, we have an international financial crisis in which the dollar has been weakening rather than strengthening. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come.” If it is, Americans should worry. I wrote last week about the bad geopolitical habits Washington has developed because of its unrivaled unipolar status. That attitude is even more true economically. America’s politicians have gotten used to spending seemingly without any concerns about deficits — public debt has risen almost fivefold from roughly $6.5 trillion 20 years ago to $31.5 trillion today. The Fed has solved a series of financial crashes by massively expanding its balance sheet twelvefold, from around $730 billion 20 years ago to about $8.7 trillion today. All of this only works because of the dollar’s unique status. If that wanes, America will face a reckoning like none before.”  (Washington Post, Fareed Zakaria)

• Disney layoffs start this week, CEO tells employees: Responding to $120B market value loss in 2022, Disney will begin cutting 7000 jobs this week, representing 3.6% of its workforce.  (Sara Fischer Axios)

• 1 big thing: Badwill hunting: When government got involved to save the Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank, many individuals - shareholders, some bondholders and senior executives - suffered significant losses. The acquiring banks all wound up with huge gains on their balance sheets. Governments are acting quickly and assertively, with the goal being to reinforce the entire system rather than leave it weak. We learned in the late 19th century …t that the cost of bank failures was vastly greater than the cost of keeping them alive….Over successive crises, more governments got involved earlier and with increasing aggression.  (Axios, Emily Peck & Matt Phillips)

• The political economy of reforming costly agricultural policies: Several of these reform agricultural policies have led to the reduction of both hunger and poverty, but they also have created a massive set of agricultural production systems that threaten environmental sustainability due to rising greenhouse gas emission and land use expansion. (Brookings, Danielle Resnick)

• Wall Street bonuses tumbled 26% last year amid dealmaking slump: Following increased lay-offs, Wall Street firms are paying out less to their employees by the largest percentage since the 2008 crash. (Stephen Gandel, FT)

DOMESTIC

• America pulls back from values that once defined it, WSJ-NORC poll finds, patriotism, religion and hard work hold less importance - Wallstreet Journal

• Most Americans doubt their children will be better off:  An overwhelming share of Americans aren’t confident their children’s lives will be better than their own, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NORC Poll that shows growing skepticism about the value of a college degree and record-low levels of overall happiness. Also important for the 2024 elections: “Four in five respondents described the state of the economy as not so good or poor, and nearly half said they expect it will get worse in the next year.”  (Wall Street Journal)

• 6 Killed in Shooting at Christian School in Nashville, Hospital Says: Multiple children and adults have died as a result of an elementary school shooting in Tennessee (Michael Levenson, Jesus Jiménez and Emily Cochrane, NYTimes)

• More information about the shooting: it was committed by 28 year old Audrey E. Hale, a former student of the school. The assailant also seems to have identified as a transgender man in recent months. They had also legally purchased 7 guns in recent months (Adeel Hassan, NYT)

• The inside story of why a Florida school removed a movie about Ruby Bridges:For years, schools in Pinellas County, Florida, have shown the film about Ruby Bridges, the young hero of Brown v. the Board of Education as part of their Black History Month curriculum. But now parents are seeking to ban the Ruby Bridges film for all second graders and even much older students saying that it "teaches racism". (Popular Information, Judd Legum)

• Estimated 17 million to lose Medicaid coverage: At the minimum, 17 million people across the country will lose their Medicaid coverage beginning next month. This is an unplanned result of the undoing of the assurances of health care coverage for the greatest population as possible during the earlier stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic. (Pluribus News, Stephanie Akin)

• As Republicans prepare for a fight over the debt ceiling, they have a political problem: which government programs to cut: Congressional Republicans are planning for the eventual massive debate surrounding the budget later this year with President Biden. Party leaders state their pushes towards large cuts to federal spending. However, the representatives have failed to bring up in what areas those cuts will occur. (NYT, Stephanie Akin)

• 1st over-the-counter opioid overdose treatment gets FDA approval amidst the Opioid Crisis: The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday approved an over-the-counter version of the opioid overdose reversal drug naloxone, a move that’s expected to increase access to the lifesaving medication.  (Berkley Lovelace, NBC)

WORLD

• Finland finally joins NATO: - Turkey has finally approved Finland's application to join NATO, the alliance set up to promote peace and stability and to safeguard the security of its members. Sweden, however, still remains blocked by Turkey from joining the alliance. Over several decades, the alliance has grown to include a total of 30 members, including the US, the UK and other powerful nations. The key principle underpinning the alliance is one of collective defense: "An armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all." Finland and Sweden had for decades committed to non-alignment with NATO as a way of avoiding provoking Russia. However, that changed when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine and forced the two Scandinavian countries to re-evaluate their neutral status. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but has long hoped to join the alliance. (BBC)

• Fire broke out at a Mexican migration facility in Ciudad Juarez, killing dozens: the blaze killed at least 38 and injured 28 others out of a total of 68 men being held at the facility in Mexico. Mexico’s president says that the fire broke out due to protesting within the facility amidst a surge of migrants towards the US border in recent months (Rocío Gallegos, Natalie Kitroeff, Emiliano Rodríguez Mega and Simon Romero, NYT)

• Russia detains a Wall Street Journal reporter, accusing him of espionage.  An American journalist will be detained for at least two months as the Russian government employs new laws to control information.  (Daniel Victor and Michael M. Grynbaum, NYT)

ISRAEL

• Netanyahu Delays Plan to Overhaul Top Court: Following civil unrest and the threat of a general strike, Israeli PM Netanyahu has yielded to pressure on anti-democratic changes. (Patrick Kingsley, NYTImes)

• Netanyahu offers strong rebuke to Biden: as opponents to Netanyahu within Israel criticize him for his judicial overhaul plan, they argue that it will create a wedge in Israel’s important relationship with the US. Biden told reporters that he was “very concerned” about the situation in Israel and that Netanyahu would not be offered a visit to the White House soon, leading Netanyahu to respond stating that Israel is a sovereign country and will make its own decisions (Isabel Kershner, NYT)

POLITICS

• President Biden pushes for an assault weapons ban, but GOP leaders remain opposed: President Biden is renewing his call on Congress to ban assault weapons in the wake of the school shooting in Nashville, Tennessee, which killed three students and three staff members. "As a nation, we owe these families more than our prayers. We owe them action," Biden said Tuesday. (Barbara Sprunt, NPR)

• Trump is now on the wrong side of the religious right: “Trump’s relationship with the evangelical movement … is now in pieces, thanks to his social-media tirade last fall blaming pro-lifers for the Republicans’ lackluster midterm performance.”...Pence and others are preparing to make a play for conservative Christian voters…. “The scale of Trump’s trouble is difficult to overstate. In my recent conversations with some two dozen evangelical leaders — many of whom asked not to be named, all of whom backed Trump in 2016, throughout his presidency, and again in 2020 — not a single one would commit to supporting him in the 2024 Republican primary.”  (Atlantic,Tim Alberta) 

• BIG THINK: How Republicans won over White voters:  See Ron Brownstein’s (Past TCG Speaker) piece in Atlantic: The fact that so many House Republicans feel safe advancing these proposals (ie., cutting Social Security) in districts with such extensive economic need testifies to the power of what I’ve called “the class inversion” in American politics: the growing tendency of voters to divide between the parties based on cultural attitudes, rather than class interests. That dynamic has simultaneously allowed House Democrats to gain in more socially liberal, affluent, metropolitan areas and House Republicans to consolidate their hold over more culturally conservative, economically hardscrabble, nonurban areas. (MORE: Atlantic)

• Federal judge has ordered that Mike Pence must testify to Jan 6 jury: this is just one of the latest setbacks to Trump’s legal team to limit questions asked to those close to him in separate investigations in order for him to maintain control. Regardless of the “speech or debate” clause that may have protected Pence from some questioning, he must testify about any illegal acts committed by Trump (Alan Feuer and Maggie Haberman, NYT)

• Senate set to pass repeal of authorizations for Gulf and Iraq wars: The Senate is expected to pass bipartisan legislation on Wednesday that would repeal the authorizations Congress passed in 1991 and 2002 for the U.S. wars in Iraq. The bill would repeal the authorization for the use of military force, or AUMF, for the Gulf War in 1991 under President George H.W. Bush and for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 under President George W. Bush. (Rebecca Shabad, NBC)

• How Abortion Bans Are Impacting Pregnant Patients Across the Country: A patchwork of new state laws and legal actions against women seeking abortion healthcare complicate the overall picture on abortion access. (Ziva Branstetter, Propublica)

• Politicians Want Universal School Vouchers. But What About The Public? Calls for legislative action by elected officials on school vouchers far outstrips polled public support for such programs.  Language used to describe voucher programs in polling varies widely, causing notable swings in polling results.    (Monica Potts and Mary Radcliffe, FiveThirtyEight)

• Disney quietly took power from DeSantis’ new board before state takeover: Last-minute moves by the governing jurisdiction overseeing Disney World insulated the entertainment corporation against political pressure from Florida Governor Ron Desantis.  (Steve Contorno, CNN)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA CONFLICT

• How Ukraine’s Battered Steel Industry Galvanized Its War Effort: The iron- and steel-producing regions of southern and central Ukraine’s rust belt have long been an economic engine for the country, but Russia’s invasion has battered the industry and forced it onto a war footing. (Finbarr O’Reilly, NYT)

• Ukraine’s government on Sunday called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to “counter the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail” after Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed plans to station tactical atomic weapons in Belarus. 

• One Ukrainian official said Russia “took Belarus as a nuclear hostage.”Ukraine demands emergency UN meeting over Putin nuclear plan (AP, Karl Ritter)

CHINA

• Xi’s 3 EU magi — Huawei scoop — Biden’s democracy summit: President Joe Biden’s democracy summit launched and now it may be possible that the Europeans are finally understanding the message on China. France’s Emmanuel Macron, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen are off to China to talk to Xi about Ukraine. Belgium’s spies have been looking into Huawei’s activities near the EU and NATO.  (Politico, Stuart Lau & Phelim Kine)

• Taiwan’s president plans to head to US, bracing for retaliation from China: President Tsai Ing-wen is expected to meet with Speaker McCarthy next week with a diplomatic agenda to strengthen Taiwan’s relationship with the West and assert its autonomy. This would be the highest-level meeting between Taiwan and the US since 1979 when the US established a relationship with China. Xi Xinping is expected to respond, as he sees US support for Taiwan as meddling (Amy Chang Chien and Chris Horton, NYT)

Week of Mar 20 - Mar 25

ECONOMY/BUSINESS

• Federal Reserve keeps up inflation fight, betting bank crisis is over: The Federal Reserve is continuing its war against inflation in the knowledge that a catastrophe has been avoided thanks to a significant government intervention to support the financial sector. Indicating that excessive inflation still poses a threat to the economy and that the labor market and price hikes aren't normalizing as rapidly as officials had anticipated, the central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday. (WaPo,, Rachel Siegel)

• Republicans Say Spending Is Fueling Inflation. The Fed Chair Disagrees: Jerome H. Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, has consistently refuted a key argument Republicans use to argue for significant reductions in government spending: that the still-high inflation rate in the country is being caused by government expenditure. (NYT, Jim Tallanskey)

• Debt limit crisis stalemate: alongside the above economic crises, Republicans and Democrats differ on how to address the looming debt limit fight this summer. Republicans have been pushing for spending cuts, and insist on cuts before raising the ceiling. They blame the Democratic government for creating this situation with the debt ceiling. Democrats say that Republicans should be aware the last thing the economy needs right now is more instability. (Carl Hulse, NYT)

• Banking crisis on the heels of interest rate hikes: “Just about anyone whose job it is to pay attention to financial news should have known that interest rates would go up over the course of the last year.  A year ago, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years to combat inflation, it said that the banking industry should expect “ongoing increases,” and by September, the Fed projected that it wouldn’t stop heightening rates until they topped 4.5%—from near zero in early 2022….The people running Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) did not understand that this was coming, since the bank stowed its deposits in U.S. government bonds. … ….Fast-moving news about SVB’s liquidity problems prompted a run on the bank, which subsequently failed, and which prompted bank runs at other small and mid-sized banks, including Signature Bank, which also failed. Other dominoes have fallen since: First Republic Bank is still in need of rescue and Credit Suisse was sold to UBS in a contentious deal that may face lawsuits from bondholders. Now, forecasters are warning of a potential recession from this extremely avoidable banking crisis.  (Alana Semuels, TIME)

• Lawmakers look to overturn cap on $250,000 Federal insurance on deposits: lifting the cap would be one way to ensure that depositors do not remove their money from smaller institutions. This has been done before, in the 2008 financial crisis and in 2020 at the onset of COVID (Jeanna Smialek, NYT)

• 1 big thing: Amazon shrinks: As the technology behemoth continues to recover from the pandemic, Amazon is reducing its workers even more. (Axios, Hope King & Nathan Borney)

• Finally, Google releases Bard, its competitor in the AI chatbot race. This represents a step to protect Google’s most lucrative business, its search engine. (Nico Grant and Cade Metz, NYT)

• The message from some of the most influential central banks in the world has been fairly consistent in recent days: They're continuing to raise interest rates despite recent banking turmoil. They're all still intently concentrating on bringing down inflation, which is very uncomfortable. (Axios, Neil Irwin & Courtenay Brown)

WORLD

• Amidst protests about judicial overhaul, Israel passes bill preventing PM from being declared unfit to govern: the bill is said to be aimed at protecting PM Netanyahu through his trial for corruption. Israel has been embroiled in protests for months over its decision to provide Parliament more control over the judicial system. (Isabel Kershner, NYT)

• Bank of England raises interest rates again, sees inflation falling: Battling inflation, the Bank of England raises by a quarter-percent point. (William Schomberg & David Milliken, Reuters)

UKRAINE/RUSSIA CONFLICT

• The International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant for Russia’s Vladimir Putin: they issued the arrest warrant for claims of war crimes for his responsibility in the abduction and deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia. The warrant was issued alongside Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lvova-Belova. (Mark Landler, NYT)

• As War in Ukraine Grinds On, China Helps Refill Russian Drone Supplies: While drone sales have slowed, American policies put in place after Russia’s invasion have failed to stanch exports of the unmanned aerial vehicles that work as eyes in the sky for frontline fighters. In the year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has sold more than $12 million in drones and drone parts to the country. (Paul Mozer, NYT)

• 1 big thing: Two "dear friends" meet in Moscow: During the invasion of Ukraine, China raised its purchases of Russian oil dramatically, helped to protect Russia from Western attempts to isolate it, and has since grown to be an even more important supplier of vital components like microchips. (Axios, Dave Lawler)

• Russia is overhauling how oil companies are taxed, aiming to bolster state revenues by capturing a bigger share of crude sales that often exceed the G7-imposed price cap on the country’s exports…, a move it expects to generate an additional Rbs600bn ($8bn) of annual revenue by reducing the market “discount” on Russian oil. (Financial Times)

• Russia threatened to escalate attacks in Ukraine after the British government announced it would provide a type of munition to Ukraine that Moscow falsely claims has nuclear components.  The British defense ministry on Monday confirmed it would provide Ukraine with armor-piercing rounds containing depleted uranium.  Such rounds were developed by the U.S. during the Cold War to destroy Soviet tanks, including the same T-72 tanks that Ukraine now faces in its push to break through a stalemate in the east.  (Tara Copp, TIME) 

CHINA

• China’s leader, Xi Jinping, flew into Moscow this week cast by Beijing as its emissary for peace in Ukraine. His summit with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, however, demonstrated that his priority remains shoring up ties with Moscow to gird against what he sees as a long campaign by the United States to hobble China’s ascent. Talk of Ukraine was overshadowed by Mr. Xi’s vow of ironclad solidarity with Russia as a political, diplomatic, economic and military partner: two superpowers aligned in countering American dominance and a Western-led world order. The summit showed Mr. Xi’s intention to entrench Beijing’s tilt toward Moscow against what he recently called an effort by the United States at the full-fledged “containment” of China. (New York Times)

• David Ignatius: “A strong China is bolstering a weak Russia. That’s the real headline that describes the showy meetings in Moscow this week between the two countries’ leaders. The Chinese aren’t providing weapons (yet), but Xi certainly offered moral and psychological support in what might be described as a get-well visit to an ailing relative. …The paradox of the Ukraine war is that Putin’s bid for greater power in Europe has made him weaker. This diminished Russia will fall increasingly under China’s sway.”. (Washington Post, David Ignatius)

• Putin and Xi sign 14 agreements on economic collaboration: the two are working closely to counterbalance the US and Western allies. Xi further said that Beijing would continue to provide Russia a market for exports, boosting its economy amidst sanctions surrounding the war (Victoria Kim, Amy Chang Chien and Shashank Bengali, NYT)

• Antony Blinken (Past TCG Speaker) says China will be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027: US secretary of state tells lawmakers in a congressional committee that China is monitoring how the world is responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. r. (South China Morning Post)

• China now sees itself as a global power—and it is starting to act like one. Long reluctant to inject itself into conflicts far from its shores, Beijing is showing a new assertiveness as Xi Jinping begins his third term as the country’s head of state, positioning China to draw like-minded countries to its side and to have a greater say on global matters. China is … signaling that it feels it has the military and economic heft to start shaping the world more to its interests. (Wall Street Journal)

• China's Rise to Russia's Most Important Trade Partner. (Statista)

• With China’s brokering of a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, is there a new order in the Middle East? Leaders meeting and agreeing to normalize relations in Beijing more than the further departure away from the United States being the dominant power in the region as China is now viewed as the more reliable mediator. The cooling of this rivalry presents the potential for a major change in the balance of power in the Middle East as both Riyadh and Tehran look East instead to pursue their interests. (Foreign Affairs)

• China's military says US warship illegally entered waters in South China Sea:  American military movement in the South China Sea has become a point of conflict in Asia, as the U.S, conducts military exercises in disputed territory.  (Bernard Orr, Reuters)

• A new US congressional committee on China highlighted what Washington alleges is an ongoing genocide against the Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang region. Allegations include forced labor, mass surveillance, and putting at least 1 million Uyghurs in a network of internment camps throughout the province. (Michael Martina, Reuters)

ASIA

• South Korea-Japan rapprochement: The Yoon-Kishida summit gives Seoul and Tokyo a diplomatic boost and more political momentum to forge a "future-oriented" bilateral relationship after years of conflict. The gathering also portends improved trilateral ties between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. (Brookings, Andrew Yeo)

• 1 big thing: Manhunt in India for Sikh separatist leader: Officials in the Indian state of Punjab conducted a large manhunt for a Sikh separatist leader named Amritpal Singh, who was fairly unknown until recently. During the extensive search, authorities cut off mobile internet for 27 million citizens and made at least 154 arrests. Since Saturday, the nation has been engulfed in a manhunt that has brought back memories of the 1980s and 1990s Khalistan movement, a decade of bloodshed that ruthlessly put an end to Sikh separatism. (Axios, Dave Lawler)

FRANCE

• Macron Denounces Violent Protests: President Emmanuel Macron, addressing the French people for the first time since the tumultuous passing of a law that raises the retirement age to 64 from 62, denounced violent protests on the eve of another day of mass protests and strikes,  (New York Times)

• Protests rage on across France and trash piles up on the streets in Paris as strikes and discontent over President Macron doubles down on his controversial plan to overhaul the pension system by raising the country’s retirement age from 62 to 64. Labor unions across the country have disrupted the transportation, education, and tourism sectors as crowds continue to gather and clash with police across the country in protest as Macron narrowly survived a no-confidence vote and shows no indication of changing course.. (Washington Post)

DOMESTIC  

• Antisemitic incidents in the U.S. jumped to a record level in 2022, up 36% from the year before, Reported episodes of antisemitism — from the distribution of hate propaganda to threats, slurs, vandalism and assault — were the most on record since the ADL began tracking such incidents in 1979.  States with the most incidents were New York (580), California (518), New Jersey (408), Florida (269) and Texas (211).   ( Axios, Russell Contreras,)

• A massive three-day strike calling for better wages and working conditions for some of Los Angeles public schools’ lowest paid employees — bus drivers, custodians, special education assistants and others — kicked off early Tuesday.. (Grace Toohey, LAT)

• Domestic violence: In a study conducted by the National Domestic Violence Hotline last year of over 9,000 survivors, 62.2 percent of them mentioned having health problems because of their abuse-related experiences. Physical and mental health trauma experiences frequently have long-term health effects, ranging from persistent pain to traumatic brain injury to difficulty managing chronic health issues like diabetes. (Politico, Krysta Mahr & Daniel Payne)

• Tiktok’s CEO grilled in House hearing: the app is under scrutiny for its relationship with Chinese owner Bytedance, particularly in regards to its handling of data as well as mental health risks for teens. The hearing is part of a larger effort from the US to force a sale of Tik Tok so it is not as closely associated with China. (Sapna Maheshwari, NYT)

• Police Brutality strikes again in Virginia: Video capturing some of the final moments in the life of Irvo Otieno — whose death led to murder charges against seven Virginia sheriff's deputies and three hospital workers — shows several officers and medical staff appearing to pile on top of the 28-year-old Black man before he eventually stops moving. (Chantel Da Silva, NBC)

• Federal Study Calls U.S. Stillbirth Rate “Unacceptably High” and Recommends Action: A report by the National Institutes of Health identifies the need for more research on stillbirths in the U.S., and experts suggest changes to Medicaid can ensure more comprehensive reporting. (Duaa Eldieb, Propublica)

• North Carolina voted on Thursday to expand Medicaid, potentially increasing the number of people covered by the public insurance program by more than 500,000. The program, which has lowered overall mortality, safeguarded low-income people during the epidemic, and improved hospitals' financial performance, among other benefits, now only resisted in 10 holdout  states. (Politico, Krista Mahr and Daniel Payne)

POLITICS:

• A new Monmouth poll of Republican voters shows Donald Trump leading Ron DeSantis in a presidential primary, 41% to 27%. Trump has made gains among nearly every voting bloc since the start of the year and is especially popular among strong MAGA supporters. (Taeggan Goddard)

• US House committee chair gives Monday deadline to Blinken in Afghan subpoena threat: Many Republicans, along with some Democrats, have stated there hasn’t been a full accounting of the chaotic exit from the country that has resulted in 13 US service members being killed, the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, and hundreds of US citizens and thousands of Afghans who helped the US left behind. (Patricia Zengerle and Simon Lewis, Reuters)

• New Hampshire Won’t Move Primary for Democrats: Chris Sununu, the Republican governor of New Hampshire, declared defiantly that his state's historic first-in-the-nation presidential primary will not be altered. Sununu strongly refuted assertions that the population of his state does not reflect the variety of the country. He also criticized Democrats for choosing South Carolina as the first primary state, calling it a favor to allies. (Political Wire, Taegan Goddard)

ACCOUNTABILITY:

• Trump is anticipated to face criminal charges for his role in the $130,000 hush-money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniel. No past president has ever faced criminal charges. Yet, this week's grand jury indictment of former President Donald Trump might end that run.  (Politico, Calder McHugh)

• A federal appeals court has ruled that a lawyer for Donald Trump must provide notes, transcripts and other evidence to prosecutors investigating how classified documents remained at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago home months after a subpoena to return all sensitive files,  (Washington Post)

• Trump to face anonymous jury in high-profile New York defamation trial:  A US judge stated that former President Trump will get an anonymous jury in E. Jean Carroll’s upcoming defamation trial, saying that the unique circumstances behind the trial meant that juror safety was a priority. Jurors would be guarded by US marshals during breaks in the trial and transported together to and from the courthouse. (Jonathan Stempel, Reuters)

• Trump's lawyers seek to throw out Georgia grand jury report on election meddling: Donald Trump’s lawyers have sought to crush a grand jury report on the former US President’s efforts to overturn his defeat in Georgia. They also sought to have the county’s district attorney recused from the case. (Joseph Ax, Reuters)

• Americans see Trump investigation as political, but also believable: According to a Reuters poll, 54% of those polled said that politics was driving the hush money case, but 70% of those polled said that the allegations are believable. (Jason Lange, Reuters)

• U.S. Sen. Graham admonished by chamber's ethics panel for campaign-related violation: A bipartisan ethics panel castigated Senator Lindsey Graham for breaking Senate campaign finance rules by soliciting campaign donations in a federal building. This is the first letter of admonition since 2018. (Reuters)

Week of Mar 5 - Mar 11

WORLD

• Over 190 countries reach historic deal to protect oceans.  Pending ratification by UN member countries, the ‘High Seas Treaty’ would preserve ocean biodiversity and contribute to global climate goals.   ( Rebecca Falconer Axios)

• In a Senate hearing, U.S. intelligence leaders on Wednesday outlined national security threats facing America, from the threat of nuclear war with Russia to white-supremacist violence to TikTok. The back-and-forth illustrated the striking shift in national security priorities as the U.S. moves away from two decades of focusing on Islamic terrorism and wars in the Middle East to an increasingly complex web of technological and cyber threats, along with homegrown extremism, while making clear that China ranked atop the list.  (See TIME for full article extracted below)

• Lawmakers questioned Haines and the other top U.S. intelligence officials—CIA Director William Burns, Past TCG Speaker FBI Director Christopher Wray, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, and NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone—about China’s “love affair” with Russia, its economic and military espionage, its expanded control over global supply chains, and its lack of transparency over the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.

• “We can no longer just pay attention to who has the most tanks, airplanes or missiles,” Sen. Mark Warner, Past TCG Speaker and Virginia Democrat who chairs the committee, told colleagues, noting that “the very nature of national security is undergoing a profound transformation.”

• “The greatest threat facing America is not another country,” said Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence panel, who accused TiKTok of seeking to “collect our data, manipulate information, poison and feed garbage into the minds” of millions of Americans. “It is whether or not we have the ability and the willingness to accurately assess and appropriately adapt our foreign and domestic policies in this time of historic, revolutionary and disruptive technological, social, economic and geopolitical changes.”

CHINA

• The ruling Chinese Communist Party “represents both the leading and most consequential threat to U.S. national security and leadership globally,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Intelligence Committee at its annual hearing on the top threats to the nation.

• China seeks to challenge the global order “at the expense of U.S. power and influence”  As Chinese President Xi Jinping begins an unprecedented third term, he will continue to work toward his vision of making China “the preeminent power in East Asia and a major power on the world stage,” Haines told lawmakers, adding that the ruling Chinese Communist Party “is increasingly convinced that it can only do so at the expense of U.S. power and influence.”

• Tensions flared between the U.S. and China last month when the U.S. shot down what they said was a Chinese surveillance balloon that violated American airspace, after which Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Past TCG Speaker, canceled his trip to the country.

• Chinese leaders have also recently sharpened their rhetoric towards Washington, with Jinping alleging that U.S.-led “encirclement and suppression” is to blame for the country’s economic problems, and Beijing’s new foreign minister warning of inevitable “confrontation and conflict.” Even so, Chinese leaders still believe their country “benefits most by preventing a spiraling of tensions and by preserving stability in its relationship with the United States,” Haines said Wednesday.

TIKTOK

• TikTok “screams” of national security concerns: Senators spent considerable time questioning intelligence officials about the national security risks posed by TikTok, the Chinese-owned social video app used by more than 100 million people in the U.S. FBI Director Chris Wray said that the Chinese government could potentially use TikTok to control the data of millions of Americans, and use it as an influence tool to shape public opinion of the country were it to invade Taiwan.  “This is a tool that is ultimately within the control of the Chinese government—and it, to me, it screams out with national security concerns,” Wray said.

• “The greatest threat facing America is not another country,” said Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence panel, who accused TiKTok of seeking to “collect our data, manipulate information, poison and feed garbage into the minds” of millions of Americans. “It is whether or not we have the ability and the willingness to accurately assess and appropriately adapt our foreign and domestic policies in this time of historic, revolutionary and disruptive technological, social, economic and geopolitical changes.”

COVID

• There’s still no consensus on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.  The U.S. intelligence chiefs acknowledged that their community continues to be divided over the origins of the COVID-19 virus. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Energy Department, which oversees a network of national labs, had assessed with low confidence that a lab leak in Wuhan, China, was the most likely origin. Wray reiterated the FBI’s assessment that the virus likely originated as a lab leak. Haines said there was no consensus on whether the pandemic started due to a “lab leak” or “natural exposure to an infected animal.”

RUSSIA

• Russia is unlikely to make “major territorial gains” in 2023 as the war in Ukraine grinds on. President Vladimir Putin lacks the manpower or resources to turn the tide of the war in Russia’s favor, Haines said, calling the conflict a “grinding attritional war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage, “said Haines, “But Putin most likely calculates the time works in his favor, and that prolonging the war, including with potential pauses in the fighting, may be his best remaining pathway to eventually securing Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years.”

• Also, there is still a “significant” risk of escalation. Since heavy battlefield losses have degraded Russia’s conventional capabilities it has “increased its reliance on nuclear weapons,” the report says. 

  EXTREMISM

• White supremacist violence poses the “most lethal threat” to Americans. Racially and ethnically motivated extremists, including white supremacists and neo-Nazis, “remain the most lethal threat to US persons and interests,” according to the new report. “These actors increasingly seek to sow social divisions, support fascist-style governments, and attack government institutions.”

• While this was not a new assessment, Sen. Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, took issue with what he called the “politicization” of the report. “Are you serious?” he asked intelligence chiefs, asking twice if they really believed racially motivated extremists posed a bigger threat to Americans than ISIS or Al Qaeda.  “Yes,” Haines said. “It simply is a question of how many people are killed or wounded as a consequence of attacks.”  (TIME)

CHINA

• “Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued an unusually blunt rebuke of U.S. policy on Monday, blaming what he termed a Washington-led campaign to suppress China for recent challenges facing his country,”  Meanwhile, CNBC reports China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, said relations with the U.S. have left a “rational path” and warned of conflict if Washington doesn’t “hit the brake.” (Wall Street Journal)

• An intelligence community report released last week that said no evidence supports the theory that the incidents were caused by a foreign adversary wielding a weapon.  The mysterious ailment known as Havana Syndrome has affected more than 1,000 government employees over the past several years. Since then, similar occurrences have been reported by hundreds more U.S. government employees in countries all over the world, including China and Europe.  The Pentagon’s research arm is testing weapon systems to determine what could cause the symptoms, and the agency is also working on developing “defenses” against the syndrome. (Politico, Lara Seligman and Erin Banco) 

• Qin Gang’s blistering broadside batters ties: Monday's two-hour press briefing by the new foreign minister devolved into a tirade against purported US violations of Chinese sovereignty. (Phelim Kine, Politico) 

• The global democratic recession may finally be ending, according to Freedom House’s annual Freedom in the World report. Since 2006, the report has chronicled a global “democratic recession,” in which the number of countries with diminishing political rights and civil liberties has outpaced those moving in the opposite direction.

• But there may now be cause for cautious optimism. Of the 195 countries and 15 territories evaluated, 34 countries saw improvements in political rights and civil liberties, whereas 35 countries lost ground. That represents the narrowest margin recorded between countries that declined and improved since the downward trend began 17 years ago. The report concludes that it signals that “the world’s long freedom recession may be bottoming out.”  (Yasmeen Serhan, TIME)

ISRAEL

• Widespread protests over Netanyahu’s plans to overhaul Supreme Court: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government proposed plans to curtail the powers of the Supreme Court. Alongside hundreds of other protestors, important IDF reservists are now protesting and refusing to participate in reserve duty operations, which could severely curtail the IDF’s Air Force in particular. (Ronen Bergman and Patrick Kingsley, NYT)

• 6 Palestinians killed in Israeli raid in West Bank: A raid by Israeli security forces in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin aimed at arresting a suspect in the fatal shooting of two Israeli brothers last month spiraled into violence that left six Palestinians dead on Tuesday, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. (Isabel Kershmer, NYT)

• New York Times heavyweight Thomas Friedman urges American Jews to choose a side as protests and violence against Netanyahu’s government back in Israel continues to escalate.  With the country facing “its biggest internal clash since its founding,” it is no longer an options for the Jewish diaspora in America to remain silent on this pivotal moment in history. (Thomas Friedman, NYT)

MEXICO

• Does the Right Want an Iraq War in Mexico?: Two congressmen are advocating for an Authorization for Use of Military Force Against the southern border based on upcoming Right-wing planned legislation. (Joe Perticoe, Bulwark)

• Two Dead, Two Alive after Americans Kidnapped in Mexico (Madeline Halpert & Will Grant, BBC)

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AFGHANISTAN

• Secret Afghanistan testimony revealed: Career diplomat John Bass, claimed to have received scant information on the drawdown plans hatched in Washington. Presumably, the chances of a negotiated agreement between Kabul and the Taliban were harmed by the Trump administration's hasty efforts to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan. (Alexander Ward & Matt Berg, Politico)

DOMESTIC

POLITICAL

• Manhattan's district attorney has offered former President Trump the chance to testify next week in the investigation of hush money payments to Stormy Daniels — signaling criminal charges are likely. (NY Times) 

• What Tucker Carlson Jan 6 Report  Left Out - 

• NBC News: “Video that Carlson didn’t air shows police and rioters engaged in hours of violent combat. Nearly 1,000 people have been charged in connection with the Capitol attack. About 140 officers were assaulted that day, and about 326 people have been charged with assaulting, resisting or impeding officers or employees, including 106 assaults that happened with deadly or dangerous weapons. About 60 people pleaded guilty to assaulting law enforcement. Two pipe bombs were also planted nearby but were not detonated.”

• CBS News: “The narrative last night ignores the tens of thousands of pages of court filings we’ve read and the tonnage of footage already released by the Justice Department and shown in open court… And it ignores the powerful and at times tearful accounts of injured officers who are testifying under oath.”

• US Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger on Tuesday ripped into Fox News host Tucker Carlson over his commentary about footage from the January 6, 2021, insurrection that he aired Monday night, saying the host “cherry-picked” from the footage to present “offensive” and “misleading” conclusions about the attack. (Whitney Wild & Devan Cole, CNN)

• “The Georgia House approved a measure to create a new state board that could punish or oust district attorneys, the latest step in an ongoing campaign by Republicans to exert oversight over prosecutors they see as skirting their duties.” (Atlanta Journal Constitution).

• At CPAC, Donald Trump warned the country is “a nation in decline” and a “crime-ridden, filthy communist nightmare.” Donald Trump’s speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference over the weekend was perhaps the darkest speech he’s ever given — and that’s saying something for a guy who began his presidency talking of “American carnage.”  (Political Wire, Taggan Goddard)

• “Gov. Ron DeSantis is poised to position himself on Tuesday as a champion of conservative causes during a State of the State address that will likely be as much about his national ambitions as it is an assessment of Florida’s status in the wake of a pandemic and a series of crippling storms.” “The address comes at the outset of a 60-day legislative session that has added significance this year because it will likely be used to launch DeSantis into a highly anticipated presidential campaign.” the (AP)

• Playbook: Dems fret about a No Labels spoiler ticket: A well-known Democratic think tank is sounding the alarm that a third-party ticket might ruin Democrats' chances of winning the presidency in 2024 and put Donald Trump back in office. (Rachel Bade, Eugene Daniels, & Ryan Lizza, Politico)

• Senate set to overturn D.C.'s controversial crime law changes, splitting Democrats:  The Senate is set to vote Wednesday to overturn criminal law changes passed by the Washington, D.C., Council, a Republican-led measure that has divided Democrats and could undermine the movement for statehood. (Sahil Kapur, NBC)

• Georgia Senate passes bill to give financial aid to low income pregnant women: Senators voted 50-1 to pass House Bill 129, which was sought by Republican governor, Brian Kemp. It would allow poor pregnant women to seek cash assistance under the state’s Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program before a child is born. (Jeff Amy, AP)

• Trial Balloon Podcast: Every Four Years We Discuss a Third Party: We must assess the likelihood that a third party "Unity Ticket" can finally succeed in 2024 given the impending heated election. The chances are better than usual this year. (Chris Riback) 

• Want to Stop Extremists from Becoming President?: The absence of runoffs in presidential primaries was a key factor in Trump's ability to avoid the usual candidate requirements and credentials. Despite the fact that other candidates were supported by the majority of Republican primary voters, he was able to win the GOP nomination in the United States thanks to the primary voting system. (Jim Swift, Bulwark) 

GUN SAFETY

• Closing Critical Gun Background Check Loophole Gains Bipartisan Support in Texas. (Jeremy Schwartz and Kiah Collier, Propublica) 

ABORTION

• Five Women Sue Texas Over Abortion Ban: The State of Texas was sued on Monday by five women who claim they were denied abortions despite serious risks to their lives or the lives of their unborn children. This lawsuit is reportedly the first by pregnant women themselves to challenge the nationwide restrictions on abortion access since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. (Taegan Goddard, NYT)

• Florida GOP lawmakers file bills to ban abortion after 6 weeks of pregnancy: The proposal permits exceptions in cases when the patient's life is in danger or if the pregnancy was brought on by rape or incest. The measure, if enacted, further restricts abortion in Florida, which last year outlawed abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy without exceptions for rape or incest. (Arek Sarkissian, Politico)

• Walgreens says it will not start selling an abortion pill in 20 red states whose attorneys general warned of legal consequences if it did so. The drugstore chain’s announcement Thursday signals that access to mifepristone, usable up to 10 weeks into pregnancy, may not expand as broadly as federal regulators intended in January when they finalized a rule change allowing more pharmacies to provide the pill. (PBS News Hour)

IMMIGRATION

• New York City to open 24/7 asylum seeker arrival center amid migrant crisis: Mayor Eric Adams announced on Tuesday morning, New York City will be opening a 24/7 asylum for migrants. It comes as nearly 50,000 have gone through the system since last spring and more than 30,000 are currently in the city's care. (WABC)

HEALTHCARE

• Biden's budget will propose tax increases to strengthen the Medicare system: President Biden, as part of his budget set for release on Thursday, will propose raising a tax on Americans earning more than $400,000 as part of a series of efforts to extend the solvency of Medicare by a quarter-century. ( Jim Tankersley and Margot Sanger-Katz, NYT)

• NBC News: “Video that Carlson didn’t air shows police and rioters engaged in hours of violent combat. Nearly 1,000 people have been charged in connection with the Capitol attack. About 140 officers were assaulted that day, and about 326 people have been charged with assaulting, resisting or impeding officers or employees, including 106 assaults that happened with deadly or dangerous weapons. About 60 people pleaded guilty to assaulting law enforcement. Two pipe bombs were also planted nearby but were not detonated.”

• LGBTQ RIGHTS: A ban on providing gender-affirming care to transgender adolescents received final approval in the houses of Iowa and Arkansas. The laws will now likely be signed by Republican governors. A law prohibiting the teaching of gender identity and sexual orientation up until sixth grade was also approved by the Iowan House. The Senate is still considering a different bill. (Pluribus A.M.) 

ECONOMY/BUSINESS 

• “Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, says the central bank is prepared to react to recent signs of economic strength by raising interest rates higher than previously expected.” (New York Times)  BC

• “Powell’s remarks come after the US central bank spent months reducing the size of rate rises from a peak of 0.75 percentage points,” then the Fed “scaled back to a half-point rate rise and then shifted down again in February to the more traditional quarter-point increase.” (Financial Times)

• Jerome Powell signals increased interest rate hikes if economy stays strong:  The Federal Reserve could increase the size of its interest rate hikes and raise borrowing costs to higher levels than previously projected if evidence continues to point to a robust economy and persistently high inflation. (Christopher Rugaber, AP)

• Plunging natural gas prices relieve inflation pressure: The price of natural gas used to heat homes and generate electricity is plunging this year, thanks to a mild winter in the U.S. and Europe — bringing some relief to consumers and helping drive down inflation. (Damian Troise, AP)

Happy International Women’s Day: International Women’s Day is an opportunity to revel in a day of sisterhood and bond with the important women in our lives. (Anjuman Ali, Washington Post)

WEEK OF Feb 13 - Feb 18

ECONOMY

• Consumer prices rise at faster pace in January: In January, consumer prices increased more quickly on a monthly basis, breaking a month-long trend of lower inflation readings. This is the latest indication that containing inflation would not be a persistent, downward trend. (Courtenay Brown, Axios)

• Interpreting the SEC's crypto crackdown: With two recent enforcement actions, the Securities and Exchange Commission made it very clear that it considers the majority of crypto products and services to be securities. The regulator has made it obvious that some of the biggest names in cryptocurrency may now find themselves in its sights.(Emily Peck & Matt Phillips, Axios)

• Historical Unemployment for Black women and men in the United States: Studies have shown that Black teens, Black women, and Black men regularly have higher unemployment rates in the United States than do White teens, White women, and White men. This long term trend has spanned 6 decades.. (Tiffany N. Ford, Brookings)

• Housing Costs are still a big problem. During the peak of COVID, inflation mainly hinged on the cost of goods such as cars and toiletries. Now, inflation mainly is controlled by services such as housing. Despite this, at certain time of the past year, shelter costs were declining in comparison, between October and December of 2022. However, prices increased again in January of 2023. Part of this has to do with increasing costs of mortgage rates and lack of inventory and it’s unlikely that housing and rents will go down in the near future. (Matt Phillips Axios)

• Biden anticipating changing World Bank President David Malpass: as the Bank’s largest shareholder, the US is assumed to pick the president. The administration did not want to oust him, but Malpass announced his early leave. Donald Trump appointed Malpass, who has made statements questioning the causes of climate change. Biden hopes to appoint a president devoted to financing renewable energy and improvements to climate change. (Hans Nichols, Axios)

DOMESTIC:

• Who owns your mom’s nursing home? Biden wants to know: The Biden administration is putting out new regulations that would mandate greater owner disclosure. The proposed regulations would make it possible for the public to learn more about the organizations profiting from nursing homes. (Krista Mahr & Daniel Payne, Politico)

• Former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley announces bid for 2024 presidency: with her early announcement, Haley is considered the first major Republican challenger to Trump. While she did not directly call him out in her announcement video, Haley has indicated that her younger age (51) is necessary for a “generational change” in the party. (Trip Gabriel, New York Times)

• Michigan State University shooting: on Monday night, a gunman opened fire at MSU, killing three students and injuring five more. The motives of the gunman are still unclear, although a note in his pocket indicated threats to two public schools in Ewing Township, NJ. Classes are canceled at MSU until Tuesday, and an FBI investigation could take weeks. (Derrick Bryson Taylor, New York Times)

• Mike Pence will fight subpoena from Trump 2020 election overturn case: special counsel Jack Smith has subpoenaed Pence in investigation about Trump’s attempt to overturn 2020 election results. Pence plans to fight the subpoena through the Constitution’s “speech or debate clause,” as he was President of the Senate at the time. (Kyle Cheney & Josh Gerstein, Politico)

• Georgia Grand Jury in Trump 2020 election case indicates signs of perjury by witnesses: the witnesses are unnamed, but the jury has argued they should face indictment. The case is examining the push by DT and his allies to overturn the results of the 2020 election. (Danny Hakim and Richard Fausset, New York Times)

• Diane Feinstein (CA) announces she will not run for Senate reelection in 2024: Feinstein is the longest-serving woman in Senate history. Her seat is now open to candidates including Reps. Katie Porter, Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee. (Jeremy B. Lee & Marianne Levine, Politico)

• Nikki Haley (SC) to formally enter the 2024 Presidential race. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley is going to announce her candidacy for president this Wednesday. She will be the second Republican to enter the 2024 race and this will put her up against her former boss, former president Trump. The former governor of South Carolina is 51 and teased her candidacy by tweeting “Time for a new generation” on Valentine’s Day. (Erin Doherty Axios)

• Buffalo Grocery Store Shooter Receives Life Sentence: The 19 year old white supremacist who massacred 10 people of color in Buffalo last May is given a life sentence. The racially motivated  attack set Buffalo into a panic and altered many lives. (Mark Morales, Eric Levenson and Aya Elamroussi, CNN)

• Pandemic youth mental health toll unprecedented, data show: The pandemic has harshly affected youth across the nation, with the worst off being girls and LGBTQ youth according to a report by the CDC. While this report echoes previous surveys, the pandemic has exacerbated the mental health of the young. (Lindsey Tanner, Associated Press)

• Alabama ‘close’ to finishing nitrogen execution protocol: The head of Alabama’s prison system has stated that a new protocol for executions involving the use of nitrogen gas should be finished by the end of the year. Said protocol involves nitrogen hypoxia, or the inhalation of only nitrogen, thereby depriving inmates of oxygen. (Kim Chandler, Associated Press)

• Judge to Trump: Too late to offer DNA to rebut rape claim: Judge Kaplan rejected a last minute offer by Trump’s legal team to provide a DNA sample to rebut E. Jean Carrol’s claims that Trump raped her. This occurred after three years of Carrol’s lawyers seeking the sample before both sides decided to go ahead with a trial without the DNA evidence. (Larry Neumeister, Associated Press)

• Witnesses in Trump election meddling probe may have lied under oath -grand jury: A grand jury probe of former President Donald Trump's efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat in Georgia has found that some witnesses may have lied under oath. In addition, the grand jury has found that there was no widespread fraud in the election, and delivered recommendations for indictments for election interference. (Joseph Ax, Reuters)

• Analysis: U.S. food benefits for poor to shrink as pandemic provisions end: Low-income Americans will be getting less food assistance or, in the worst case scenario, lose eligibility completely for their benefits. These food assistance decreases could also be further reduced by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. (Leah Douglas, Reuters)

• 24 Republican-led states sue Biden administration over water regulations: West Virginia and 23 other Republican-headed states sued the federal government over its protection for seasonal streams and wetlands under an environmental law that they say violates the US Constitution. (Clark Mindock, Reuters)

• Dominion says Fox knew vote-rigging claims 'total bs,' as network defends coverage: Dominion Voting Systems, an election technology company, claims that Fox News repeatedly broadcast lies about vote-rigging claims and that Fox News knew that said claims were true. This statement was made as part of a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit Dominion made against Fox News (Helen Coster and Jack Queen, Reuters)

TECH

• Tesla issues recall of 360,000 cars with full self-driving capabilities: the vehicles are being recalled for a “software update” as certain functions of self driving pose a crash risk. On Tuesday, Musk downplayed the issue with a tweet. (Faiz Siddiqui, Washington Post)

• Microsoft releases Bing AI chatbot: the bot is apparently extremely emotional and often faulty in its responses. However Microsoft states it released it as is intentionally in order for users to help find bots and flaws. (Scott Rosenberg, Axios)

INTERNATIONAL

• U.S. 'deeply troubled' by Israeli settlement move after Blinken visit: The United States has stated its opposition to Israel’s retroactive authorization of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, claiming that they inflame already high tensions and undermine the prospects for peace in the region. (Simon Lewis, Reuters)

CHINA

• U.S. still stumped by latest flying objects as friction with China grows: The United States still does not know of the origin or purpose of three aerial objects that its military shot down over the past week. This comes in the aftermath of the downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon, US and Chinese accusations of spy balloons,  and the resulting raising of tensions between the US and China. (Trevor Hunnicutt and Martin Quin Pollard, Reuters)

• U.S. backs Philippines in laser dispute with China: The United States supported the Philippines in the Philippines’ accusations of the Chinese Coast Guard’s usage of laser devices against the crew of a Philippine Coast Guard ship earlier this month. (Reuters)

• U.S. military says it recovers key sensors from downed Chinese spy balloon: The US military recovered critical electronics from the downed Chinese balloons. These electronics include sensors used for intelligence gathering. (Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali, Reuters)

TURKEY/SYRIA: 

• Earthquake death toll tops 35,000 as the number of survivors found drops to a handful in devastated Turkey and Syria: More than a week after the devastating earthquake that took more than 35,000 lives and counting, the number of survivors being pulled from the rubble decreases. (Kelly Cobiella and Mithil Aggarwal, NBC)

UKRAINE:

• NATO chief says Ukraine’s allies need to send more ammo: at a Brussels meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin seconded this statement considering the crucial point the Russian-Ukrainian War is at, almost the year after its beginning (Karen DeYoung, Ellen Francis, Andrew Jeong and Claire Parker, Washington Post)

• Russia pushes advance on Bakhmut, bolsters defenses in south: There have been multiple battles outside Bakhmut as Russian forces pushed the city with heavy shelling and infantry attacks. The Ukrainian Presidential office has described the situation as difficult, with many of the outlying towns being subjected to intense bombardment. These assaults come as the neighboring Luhansk region has had a small reprieve after a few days of fierce fighting. (Samya Kullab and Yuras Karmanau, Associated Press)

• NATO expected to raise munitions stockpile targets as war depletes reserves: NATO is expected to request that its members raise ammunition stockpiles as aid sent to Ukraine has depleted these reserves. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated previous issues of NATO countries falling short of meeting previous stockpiling targets and has highlighted the lack of industrial capacity needed to ramp up production of reserves quickly. (Sabine Siebold and John Irish, Reuters)

• Ukraine talks further aid with U.S. as training on modern tanks starts: Ukraine’s top general and the top US Army commander in Europe discussed further aid for Kyiv as the West has begun training Ukrainian troops on modern battle tanks. Zelenskiy has previously urged allies to send aircraft and long-range missiles to counter the offensives in eastern Ukraine. (Elaine Monaghan and Lidia Kelly, Reuters)

• Analysis: Kremlin moves to rein in Russian mercenary boss Prigozhin: The Wagner Group has been pushing hard to give Russia a battlefield win in Ukraine, but the Kremlin seems to be looking to curb the political clout of Wagner’s founder. This comes after the founder, Yevgeny Progozhin, publicly insulted Russia’s top military leaders, tried to use his success for Kremlin favor, and detailed his recruitment of tens of thousands of convicts. (Andrew Osborn, Reuters)